premack-principle

Premack Principle In A Nutshell

The Premack principle posits that more probable behaviors reinforce those that are less probable. In other words, an individual will perform a less preferred activity (low probability behavior) to obtain access to a more preferred activity (high probability behavior).

AspectExplanation
DefinitionThe Premack Principle, also known as Grandma’s Law, is a psychological concept and behavior modification technique developed by psychologist David Premack. It suggests that individuals are more likely to perform a less preferred or less probable activity if it leads to an opportunity to engage in a more preferred or more probable activity. In other words, high-probability behaviors can be used as rewards or reinforcements for low-probability behaviors. This principle is widely applied in various fields, including education, parenting, therapy, and motivation, to encourage desirable behaviors and achieve specific goals. The Premack Principle is built on the idea that people are naturally inclined to engage in activities they find enjoyable, and this inclination can be leveraged to promote positive behavior change and task completion.
Key ConceptsBehavioral Reinforcement: The Premack Principle is based on the concept of reinforcement, where engaging in a preferred behavior reinforces a less preferred behavior. – Preference Hierarchy: It assumes that individuals have a hierarchy of preferred activities, and this hierarchy can be leveraged for motivation. – Probability of Occurrence: The principle acknowledges that some behaviors are more likely to occur than others naturally. – Goal Alignment: It aligns goals and desired behaviors with the individual’s natural inclinations and preferences. – Intrinsic Motivation: The principle leverages intrinsic motivation by making less preferred tasks more appealing through rewards.
CharacteristicsReward-Based: The Premack Principle uses rewards, typically high-probability behaviors, to motivate low-probability behaviors. – Preference Utilization: It leverages individuals’ existing preferences and hierarchies to encourage specific behaviors. – Goal-Oriented: The application of this principle is goal-oriented, aiming to achieve desired outcomes or behavioral changes. – Intrinsic Motivation: It taps into individuals’ intrinsic motivation by making tasks more enjoyable or appealing. – Applicability: It can be applied in various contexts, including education, therapy, and everyday life.
ImplicationsBehavior Modification: The Premack Principle is used to modify behavior by encouraging desirable actions through the promise of preferred activities. – Motivation: It provides a powerful tool for motivating individuals to complete tasks or engage in less preferred behaviors. – Task Completion: Tasks that may be considered less enjoyable or less likely to be initiated can be completed more consistently. – Intrinsic Motivation: The principle enhances intrinsic motivation by aligning activities with personal preferences. – Goal Achievement: It aids in achieving specific goals by making the path to those goals more engaging.
AdvantagesEffective Motivation: The Premack Principle is an effective motivational tool, especially for tasks that require effort or are less enjoyable. – Adaptive: It can be adapted to suit individual preferences and goals, making it versatile. – Encourages Consistency: It encourages consistent engagement in tasks or behaviors over time. – Intrinsic Motivation: By aligning tasks with personal preferences, it enhances intrinsic motivation. – Applicability: It can be applied in various contexts, from parenting to education and workplace motivation.
DrawbacksDependency: There is a risk of individuals becoming overly dependent on external rewards to perform tasks. – Preference Changes: Over time, an individual’s preferences may change, affecting the effectiveness of the principle. – Complexity: Determining the right rewards and preferences can be complex and require understanding the individual well. – Overuse: Overusing the Premack Principle can lead to diminishing returns, where rewards lose their effectiveness. – Resistance: Some individuals may resist or become demotivated by the idea of rewards.
ApplicationsEducation: Teachers use the Premack Principle to motivate students to complete less preferred tasks, such as homework, by offering preferred activities as rewards. – Parenting: Parents apply the principle to encourage children to complete chores or schoolwork by offering playtime or other preferred activities as incentives. – Therapy: Therapists use it to motivate clients to engage in therapeutic activities or exercises by connecting them with enjoyable activities. – Fitness: Individuals use the principle to motivate themselves to exercise by rewarding themselves with a preferred treat or activity after a workout. – Workplace: Managers apply it to boost employee productivity by allowing short breaks or preferred activities after completing tasks or goals.
Use CasesHomework Completion: A teacher uses the Premack Principle to motivate students to complete their homework by allowing them to engage in a preferred activity, like reading a favorite book, afterward. – Chore Completion: A parent encourages their child to complete household chores by promising a fun trip to the park or a movie night. – Therapeutic Exercises: A therapist motivates a client to perform therapeutic exercises by connecting them to a rewarding activity like a relaxing massage or spa day. – Exercise Routine: An individual motivates themselves to stick to their exercise routine by rewarding themselves with a favorite dessert after a workout. – Sales Targets: A sales manager rewards the sales team with a casual day or a team outing after achieving sales targets for the month, encouraging continued performance.

Understanding the Premack principle

The Premack principle was developed after a study of capuchin monkeys conducted by David Premack in 1965.

Premack gave monkeys access to four different toys and recorded the time they spent playing with each.

He then limited access to the toys whilst giving the monkeys access to the toys they played with the longest. 

However, access to the popular toys was only provided if the monkeys first played with less desirable toys.

Over time, the monkeys became wise to the experiment and started playing with undesirable toys longer to obtain access to their favorite toys.

Premack then decided to repeat the experiment with children with each given a choice between pinball and eating candy.

Premack first determined which of the kids preferred eating candy and which preferred pinball and split them into two groups. 

The first group of candy lovers was required to play pinball before they could eat candy, and the second group of pinball lovers was required to eat candy before they could play pinball.

Premack found that no matter what their preference, each child performed the least desirable of the two activities to get what they wanted.

This tendency became a theory of reinforcement known as the Premack principle. In essence, the more probable response in any pair of responses will reinforce the less probable response.

Premack principle examples

The Premack principle is sometimes known as “Grandma’s rule” because of the way grandparents encourage their grandchildren to eat more healthily. 

Many of us have childhood memories of being told that we’d only be able to eat cake if we ate our vegetables first.

The same principle also applies to parents who will only allow their children to play video games once their homework is done.

The principle can also be useful in some workplace scenarios as a motivation tactic.

In a 2022 study by Welsh, Bernstein, and Luthans, employees of a fast-food restaurant were observed over a 7-week period with five of them selected at random and offered a proposition.

If the performance of these employees exceeded baseline levels at a less desirable workstation, they would be offered more time to work at their favorite station.

Compared to the employees who were not offered the proposition, employee performance at the less desirable workstation increased with the prospect of spending more time in a more desirable area of the restaurant.

Key takeaways:

  • The Premack principle posits that an individual will perform a less preferred activity (low probability behavior) to obtain access to a more preferred activity (high probability behavior).
  • The Premack principle was developed after a study of capuchin monkeys conducted by David Premack in 1965. Premack later conducted a similar experiment with children and found that irrespective of their preference between pinball and candy, they would perform the less desirable activity to get what they wanted.
  • The Premack principle can also be useful in some workplace scenarios as an employee motivation tactic. A study of fast food workers found that those who were promised more time at their favorite workstation worked in less desirable areas more productively to gain access to it.

Key Highlights

  • Definition and Concept: The Premack principle suggests that a person is more likely to perform a less preferred activity (low probability behavior) if it leads to the opportunity to engage in a more preferred activity (high probability behavior).
  • Origin and Study: The principle was developed based on a study involving capuchin monkeys by David Premack in 1965. He observed monkeys’ toy preferences and found that they would engage in less favored activities to gain access to their favorite toys.
  • Experiment with Monkeys: In the study, Premack limited access to popular toys for the monkeys. To access their favorite toys, the monkeys had to first interact with less preferred toys. Over time, monkeys spent more time with less desirable toys to gain access to the preferred ones.
  • Experiment with Children: Premack extended his study to children, using choices between playing pinball and eating candy. Regardless of their preference, children were willing to engage in the less preferred activity to gain access to their preferred activity.
  • Principle Application: The Premack principle is commonly referred to as “Grandma’s rule” and is used by parents and caregivers to motivate desired behaviors. For instance, children are told they can have dessert after eating vegetables or play video games after completing homework.
  • Workplace Application: The Premack principle can be applied in workplace scenarios for motivation. A 2022 study observed fast-food restaurant employees. Those promised more time at their preferred workstation showed increased productivity in less desirable areas to earn the reward.
  • Key Takeaways:
    • The Premack principle explains that people are likely to perform less preferred actions to gain access to more preferred activities.
    • Originating from studies with monkeys and later with children, the principle demonstrates this behavior across species.
    • The principle is commonly used in parenting and caregiving to encourage desired behaviors.
    • It can also be used in workplaces as a motivation strategy, as observed in the study with fast-food restaurant employees.
Related FrameworkDescriptionWhen to Apply
Behavioral ContractingBehavioral Contracting is a method used to modify behavior by establishing clear agreements or contracts between individuals or groups. It involves defining specific behaviors, consequences for those behaviors, and rewards for meeting behavioral expectations. Behavioral contracts create accountability and motivation for behavior change by making expectations explicit and providing incentives for desired behaviors.When seeking to modify behavior or establish expectations within individuals or groups, clarifying responsibilities and consequences, and fostering accountability and motivation for behavior change.
Positive ReinforcementPositive Reinforcement is a behavioral psychology concept that involves rewarding desired behaviors to increase the likelihood of their recurrence. It leverages rewards or incentives to reinforce positive behaviors, making them more likely to occur in the future. Positive reinforcement encourages individuals to repeat behaviors that lead to favorable outcomes, shaping behavior through the association of actions with positive consequences.When encouraging desired behaviors or performance outcomes, providing rewards or incentives to reinforce positive actions, and motivating individuals to engage in behaviors that lead to desired outcomes.
Operant ConditioningOperant Conditioning is a learning theory that describes how behavior is influenced by its consequences. It involves modifying behavior through reinforcement or punishment, depending on whether the behavior is desired or undesired. Operant conditioning relies on shaping behavior through the use of positive or negative consequences, reinforcing desired behaviors and discouraging unwanted ones.When seeking to modify behavior or responses through reinforcement or punishment, shaping behavior by associating actions with consequences, and promoting desired behaviors while discouraging undesirable ones.
Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT)Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy is a psychotherapeutic approach that addresses dysfunctional thoughts and behaviors by modifying cognitive patterns and emotional responses. It focuses on identifying and challenging negative thought patterns, replacing them with healthier beliefs, and developing coping strategies to change behavior. CBT helps individuals understand the relationship between thoughts, emotions, and behaviors, facilitating behavior change.When addressing maladaptive behaviors or thought patterns, identifying cognitive distortions and challenging negative beliefs, and developing strategies to change behavior by modifying underlying cognitive processes.
Social Learning TheorySocial Learning Theory, proposed by Albert Bandura, suggests that people learn by observing and imitating the behavior of others. It emphasizes the role of modeling, reinforcement, and observational learning in shaping behavior. Social Learning Theory posits that individuals acquire new behaviors through exposure to role models and reinforcement of observed behaviors, highlighting the importance of social context in learning and behavior change.When promoting behavior change through observational learning and modeling, providing opportunities for individuals to observe and imitate desired behaviors, and leveraging social reinforcement to encourage the adoption of positive behaviors.
Token EconomyToken Economy is a behavior modification technique that uses tokens or points as rewards for desired behaviors. Participants earn tokens for engaging in target behaviors and can exchange them for rewards or privileges. Token economies establish a clear system of reinforcement, providing immediate feedback and incentives for desired behaviors. They are often used in educational or therapeutic settings to promote behavior change and skill acquisition.When implementing a structured reinforcement system to promote behavior change, providing tangible rewards or incentives for desired behaviors, and facilitating skill acquisition and positive behavior reinforcement through a token-based economy.
Contingency ManagementContingency Management is a behavior therapy approach that involves systematically reinforcing desired behaviors while extinguishing undesired behaviors. It relies on the principle of reinforcement to modify behavior by providing rewards or consequences contingent upon specific actions. Contingency management interventions are designed to increase the occurrence of desirable behaviors and decrease the occurrence of undesirable ones.When implementing systematic reinforcement strategies to modify behavior, providing immediate consequences or rewards for target behaviors, and extinguishing undesired behaviors through consistent application of reinforcement contingencies.
Self-Regulation TheorySelf-Regulation Theory posits that individuals actively monitor, control, and regulate their thoughts, feelings, and behaviors to achieve personal goals. It involves setting goals, monitoring progress, and employing self-regulatory strategies to manage behavior and emotions. Self-regulation theory emphasizes the role of self-awareness, self-monitoring, and self-control in promoting behavior change and achieving desired outcomes.When promoting self-directed behavior change and goal attainment, fostering self-awareness and self-monitoring of behavior, and developing self-regulatory skills to manage impulses and emotions and achieve desired outcomes.
Motivational Interviewing (MI)Motivational Interviewing is a client-centered counseling approach that explores and resolves ambivalence about behavior change. It involves collaborative conversations aimed at eliciting and strengthening an individual’s motivation to change. Motivational interviewing employs techniques such as open-ended questions, reflective listening, and affirmations to enhance intrinsic motivation and resolve ambivalence toward behavior change.When engaging individuals in discussions about behavior change, exploring and resolving ambivalence toward change, and eliciting intrinsic motivation and commitment to action through collaborative and empathetic communication.
Choice ArchitectureChoice Architecture refers to the design of environments or systems that influence people’s decisions and behaviors. It involves structuring choices and presenting information in ways that nudge individuals toward desired outcomes. Choice architecture leverages behavioral insights to design environments that make desired behaviors more salient, accessible, and attractive, thereby influencing decision-making and behavior.When designing environments or systems to promote desired behaviors or outcomes, leveraging behavioral insights to influence decision-making, and designing choice contexts that make desired behaviors more appealing and accessible to individuals.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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