Murphy’s law says that “anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” The name is linked to Edward A. Murphy Jr., a US Air Force engineer on John Paul Stapp‘s rocket-sled deceleration tests at Muroc, now Edwards Air Force Base, in the late 1940s; accounts of his exact words, and of who first called it a law, differ. Stapp used it to mean thinking through every possibility before a test.
On Stapp's tests, strain gauges on the harness were reportedly installed backwards and read zero; Murphy is said to have remarked that if there was any way to do it wrong, they would.
02
The reframe
At a press conference weeks later, Stapp credited the team's safety record to respecting “Murphy's law”, meaning planning for every possibility before a run.
If a part can be fitted or used the wrong way, eventually someone will, so the safest design makes the wrong way impossible.
Where you see it today
AI agents with real permissions
As AI agents send emails, move money or change code, a model error becomes an operational error. The OWASP GenAI Security Project lists “excessive agency” among top risks for LLM applications, tracing it to too many tools, too broad permissions and too much autonomy, and recommends least privilege and human approval for high-impact actions.
One update, many machines
On 19 July 2024 a faulty CrowdStrike content update crashed Windows machines running its sensor. CrowdStrike’s review traced it to an undetected error that a bug in its content validator let through, and committed to staggered, canary-first deployments.
Layers of defence
James Reason’s “Swiss cheese” model (Reason, 2000) treats each safeguard as a layer with holes; accidents happen when the holes line up. Designing with Murphy’s law in mind means adding independent layers rather than trusting any single one.
Breaking things on purpose
Some engineering teams deliberately inject failures, such as killed servers or slow networks, into their systems to find weaknesses before customers do. It is Murphy’s law turned into a test plan.
ClaimAccidents need several safeguards to fail together
How to use itAdd independent layers of defence
Hanlon's razor
ClaimDo not assume malice where error explains it
How to use itInvestigate incidents without blame
Parkinson's law
ClaimWork expands to fill the time available
How to use itSet tight scopes and deadlines
Poka-yoke
ClaimMistakes can be designed out
How to use itMake the wrong action impossible
How to use it
Run a pre-mortem: assume the project has failed and list the reasons why.
Give AI agents the minimum tools and permissions they need, and require human sign-off for irreversible actions.
Roll out changes in stages, starting with a small canary group.
Make actions reversible where you can, and test the rollback before you need it.
After an incident, fix the system that allowed the error rather than blaming the person.
The Business Engineer lens
Murphy’s law matters more as AI agents take real actions, because every permission an agent holds is a failure mode waiting for its day. The Business Engineer tracks how agent architectures are being built, and permissions, checks and rollbacks are becoming as important as the model itself.
The adage that anything that can go wrong will go wrong; engineers use it as a reminder to design for every failure mode.
Who was Murphy?
Edward A. Murphy Jr., a US Air Force engineer on John Paul Stapp's rocket-sled tests in the late 1940s; accounts of exactly what he said, and who named the law, differ.
Is Murphy's law pessimistic?
Not as engineers use it. Stapp cited it to explain why his team planned for every possibility, which made the tests safer.
How does Murphy's law apply to AI agents?
Agents that can act on real systems will eventually act wrongly, so they need minimal permissions, human approval for high-impact steps and a way to roll back.
The complete explainer, cleaned up and reformatted for mobile.
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”
Definition
ExplanationMurphy’s Law is a popular adage or epigram that states, “Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.” It suggests that if there is a possibility of something going awry or not as planned, it is likely to happen, often at the most inconvenient or unexpected moment. Murphy’s Law is often invoked humorously to express the idea that life is unpredictable, and unexpected setbacks or mishaps should be anticipated as a part of the human experience. It is not a scientific law but rather a statement of pessimism or caution.
Key Concepts
Explanation– Pessimistic Perspective: Murphy’s Law reflects a pessimistic viewpoint that emphasizes the potential for negative outcomes or errors. – Unpredictability: It highlights the unpredictable nature of events and the human tendency to experience setbacks or mishaps. – Preparedness: The adage encourages preparedness and the recognition that things may not always go as planned. – Humor: Murphy’s Law is often used in a humorous context to acknowledge life’s quirks and unexpected turns.
Characteristics
Explanation– Widespread Usage: Murphy’s Law is a widely recognized and commonly used concept in everyday conversation and humor. – Subjectivity: Its interpretation can vary from person to person, and some may use it more seriously, while others use it as a lighthearted expression. – Cultural Variation: Different cultures may have their own versions or interpretations of Murphy’s Law.
Implications
Explanation– Expectation of Setbacks: Murphy’s Law reminds individuals and organizations to anticipate unexpected challenges and be prepared for contingencies. – Risk Management: It underscores the importance of risk management and contingency planning in various aspects of life, including business, engineering, and project management. – Adaptability: Recognizing the potential for things to go wrong encourages adaptability and problem-solving skills. – Humor and Coping: In humorous contexts, Murphy’s Law can serve as a coping mechanism to deal with frustrating or inconvenient situations.
Advantages
Explanation– Mindful Preparation: It encourages individuals and organizations to prepare for unexpected events and consider backup plans. – Resilience: Embracing the idea that things may not always go smoothly can foster resilience and the ability to bounce back from setbacks. – Humor: In humorous usage, it provides a lighthearted way to acknowledge life’s quirks and challenges.
Drawbacks
Explanation– Pessimism: Murphy’s Law can foster a pessimistic outlook if taken too seriously, leading to unnecessary anxiety or a defeatist attitude. – Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Excessive belief in Murphy’s Law might lead individuals to inadvertently contribute to negative outcomes by expecting them. – Overreliance on Luck: Relying on the assumption that things will go wrong can discourage proactive problem-solving.
Applications
Explanation– Project Management: Professionals in project management use Murphy’s Law to remind themselves and their teams to plan for contingencies and unforeseen issues. – Engineering and Design: Engineers consider potential failure points and conduct risk assessments to mitigate the impact of failures. – Aviation: The aviation industry embraces Murphy’s Law principles in safety protocols and aircraft design. – Space Exploration: NASA and other space agencies apply Murphy’s Law principles in mission planning and spacecraft design to ensure astronaut safety. – Military Strategy: Military planners incorporate Murphy’s Law principles into strategy and training to prepare for unexpected challenges on the battlefield.
Use Cases
Explanation– Emergency Services: Firefighters, paramedics, and other emergency responders anticipate the unexpected in their work, knowing that emergencies can happen at any time. – Disaster Preparedness: Disaster management agencies plan for various scenarios, including worst-case scenarios, to effectively respond to crises. – Product Development: Product designers and engineers consider potential flaws or defects in their designs and conduct rigorous testing to prevent issues from arising. – Event Planning: Event organizers prepare for contingencies such as bad weather, technical malfunctions, or last-minute changes. – Space Exploration: Space agencies like NASA meticulously plan for mission failures, astronaut safety, and unforeseen challenges in space missions.
Understanding Murphy’s Law
After hearing the remarks, the technician’s project manager called it Murphy’s Law.
Murphy’s Law describes those days in life where everything seems to go wrong.
Perhaps the alarm clock failed to go off on the morning of an important presentation. Or maybe the best salesman in the organization goes home sick minutes before a crucial client meeting. Whatever the event, it is largely beyond the control of the individual or business.
Indeed, it is how a business responds to Murphy’s Law that will give it a competitive edge.
Managing the impact of Murphy’s Law
When things go wrong in a business, the cause can be tracked to six factors: human, process, policy, equipment, materials, or environment.
Once the cause has been identified, the business should evaluate its systems and develop best practices to minimize risk.
For example
Does the business have routine checklists to ensure consistency?
Does the business have an appropriate equipment maintenance protocol?
How is the business turning customer complaints into opportunities for growth?
Is the business proficient in human resource management? Are employees suitably trained, skilled, or motivated?
Is important data backed up? Are important processes or innovations patented to guard against the competition?
Murphy’s Three Laws of Business Continuity
Murphy’s Law has been adapted to business with two additional laws.
Let's look at each
Murphy’s First Law โ “If it can go wrong, it will go wrong.” In business, the first law highlights the importance of risk assessment and the value of spending money on risk mitigation.
Murphy’s Second Law โ “If it cannot possibly go wrong, it’ll still go wrong.” No matter how much time or money is spent on risk mitigation, it is impossible to eliminate all of them. Given enough time, something with a very small probability of occurring becomes increasingly likely. Business continuity plans should be developed to ensure that the recovery from a negative event is as swift as possible.
Murphy’s Third Law โ “Life happens.” Accepting that life is beyond their control is important for businesses. While continuity plans are vital, they do not make a business immune to negative events. Background levels of operational risk should always be communicated to management and key stakeholders.
Murphy’s law examples
Here are some examples of Murphyโs law in action which you may be able to relate to.
Computer malfunction
Almost everyone can remember a situation where a compute โ as explored in the economics of AI compute infrastructure โ r has decided to crash or reboot itself in the middle of an important presentation.
Inopportune calls
Have you ever waited all morning for an important call, only to give up waiting and have the client ring while you are in the middle of eating your lunch?
This is a classic and all too familiar example of Murphyโs law at work.
Caught in the act
Youโve spent all day working on an important project and by 4 pm you are suffering from intense social media withdrawal.
The minute you decide to stop work and check your phone, the boss walks into your office and catches you being unproductive.
Why couldnโt he walk in when you were hard at work?
Project management
In project management, there is a common adage which states that โThe first 90% of a project takes 90% of the time. The last 10% takes the other 90% of the time.โ
Office dรฉcor
Office employees attempt to revitalize an unfrequented area of the office with some new indoor plants in terracotta pots.
Only a week after they are installed, contractors who need access to a storeroom in the area to carry out repairs knock the plants on the floor and smash the pots.
Supermarket queues
Weโve all been in a situation at the supermarket where we are standing in line watching the adjacent line move more quickly.
We debate the merits of joining the other queue before doing so impatiently.
As soon as we join the new queue, someone ahead of us drops all their coins on the ground or has their credit card declined. The line we were originally standing in starts to move faster as a result.
Real estate
While a real estate agent is showing a house to an interested buyer, a once-in-a-century storm overwhelms the roof gutters and causes water to pool inside.
Wedding videography
Consider a wedding videographer who is filming the bride and groom exchange vows right as a noisy aircraft flies overhead.
This is another example of Murphy’s law and its propensity to be associated with perfectly imperfect timing.
Intermittent vehicle malfunction
Car ownership can either be very enjoyable or endlessly irritating.
Have you ever tolerated a constant rattle or noise coming from somewhere in the engine, only to have the problem disappear once you take it to the mechanic?
Key takeaways
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong.
The impacts of Murphy’s Law cannot be controlled, but they can be managed. By understanding the six causes of unforeseen events, a business can develop risk-managing systems for each.
Murphy’s Law in business is sometimes seen with two additional laws. The second law states that things will still go wrong, no matter how hard a business tries to eliminate risk. The third law dictates that some level of risk should be factored into doing business. This should then be communicated to management and key stakeholders.
Risk Management
DescriptionRisk Management involves identifying, assessing, and mitigating potential risks to minimize their impact on project objectives. It encompasses processes for risk identification, analysis, response planning, and monitoring. Murphy’s Law underscores the importance of considering and planning for unexpected events that could disrupt project progress.
When to ApplyWhen planning and executing projects, assessing potential risks and developing strategies to mitigate their impact, and preparing contingency plans to address unforeseen challenges in alignment with Murphy’s Law.
Contingency Planning
DescriptionContingency Planning involves preparing alternative courses of action to address potential disruptions or crises that may arise during project execution. It aims to minimize the impact of unforeseen events by having pre-defined response strategies in place. Murphy’s Law highlights the need for proactive contingency planning to mitigate the effects of unexpected setbacks.
When to ApplyWhen managing projects or operations, identifying potential points of failure or disruption and developing contingency plans to address them, and ensuring readiness to implement alternative strategies in response to unexpected events as suggested by Murphy’s Law.
Resilience Engineering
DescriptionResilience Engineering focuses on enhancing systems’ ability to adapt and recover from unexpected disruptions or failures. It emphasizes proactive measures such as building redundancy, fostering adaptive capacity, and promoting a culture of learning from failures. Murphy’s Law underscores the importance of designing systems that can withstand and recover from adverse events.
When to ApplyWhen designing complex systems or organizations, prioritizing resilience by building redundancy, flexibility, and adaptive capacity, and fostering a culture of continuous learning and improvement to mitigate the impact of unexpected challenges.
Scenario Planning
DescriptionScenario Planning involves envisioning and preparing for various plausible future scenarios that may impact an organization or project. It helps decision-makers anticipate potential challenges, identify early warning signals, and develop strategies to navigate uncertainty. Murphy’s Law encourages considering worst-case scenarios and planning responses accordingly.
When to ApplyWhen developing strategic plans or decision-making processes, exploring different future scenarios and their potential implications, and developing strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities, taking into account the possibility of unexpected setbacks as suggested by Murphy’s Law.
Root Cause Analysis
DescriptionRoot Cause Analysis (RCA) is a problem-solving technique aimed at identifying the underlying causes of failures or incidents. It involves systematically investigating events to uncover contributing factors and develop corrective actions. Murphy’s Law underscores the importance of understanding the root causes of failures to prevent their recurrence and mitigate future risks.
When to ApplyWhen investigating incidents, errors, or failures, conducting thorough analyses to identify underlying causes and contributing factors, and developing targeted interventions to address root causes and improve systems’ resilience against future failures as suggested by Murphy’s Law.
Redundancy Design
DescriptionRedundancy Design involves incorporating duplicate or backup components into systems or processes to mitigate the impact of failures or disruptions. Redundancy enhances system reliability and resilience by providing alternative pathways or resources to maintain functionality. Murphy’s Law highlights the value of redundancy in safeguarding against unexpected failures.
When to ApplyWhen designing critical systems, processes, or infrastructure, integrating redundancy measures to ensure continuity of operations in the event of component failures or disruptions, and minimizing the potential impact of unforeseen events as suggested by Murphy’s Law.
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
DescriptionFailure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a systematic method for identifying potential failure modes in a system, assessing their likelihood and severity, and prioritizing mitigation actions. FMEA helps proactively address vulnerabilities and improve system reliability. Murphy’s Law underscores the importance of considering worst-case failure scenarios in FMEA processes.
When to ApplyWhen evaluating the reliability and robustness of systems or processes, conducting FMEA to identify potential failure modes, assessing their potential impact, and implementing preventive measures to mitigate risks and enhance system resilience in alignment with Murphy’s Law.
Agile Risk Management
DescriptionAgile Risk Management is an iterative approach to identifying, assessing, and responding to risks in agile projects. It emphasizes early and continuous risk identification and mitigation throughout the project lifecycle. Murphy’s Law emphasizes the need for agile teams to anticipate and address potential setbacks promptly and adaptively.
When to ApplyWhen managing agile projects, continuously identifying and evaluating risks, integrating risk responses into iterative development cycles, and fostering a culture of adaptability and responsiveness to effectively navigate uncertainties and challenges as suggested by Murphy’s Law.
Crisis Management
DescriptionCrisis Management involves coordinated actions and strategies to address and mitigate the impact of emergencies or crises that threaten an organization’s operations, reputation, or stakeholders. It encompasses preparedness, response, and recovery activities to manage crises effectively. Murphy’s Law underscores the importance of being prepared to respond to unforeseen emergencies.
When to ApplyWhen developing crisis response plans or protocols, anticipating potential crisis scenarios and developing proactive strategies to manage them, and establishing effective communication channels and response mechanisms to mitigate the impact of crises as suggested by Murphy’s Law.
Adaptive Leadership
DescriptionAdaptive Leadership emphasizes the ability to lead effectively in complex and uncertain environments by adapting to changing circumstances and mobilizing others to address adaptive challenges. It involves fostering resilience, promoting learning, and facilitating adaptive responses to unexpected events. Murphy’s Law highlights the importance of adaptive leadership in navigating uncertainty.
When to ApplyWhen leading teams or organizations, cultivating adaptive leadership skills to respond effectively to unforeseen challenges, fostering resilience and learning, and mobilizing collective efforts to address adaptive challenges and seize opportunities in alignment with Murphy’s Law.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
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