thought-experiments

Thought Experiments

Thought Experiments are mental exercises employing hypothetical scenarios to explore, test, or illustrate concepts, theories, and philosophies. By envisioning imaginary situations, these experiments allow for concept testing, philosophical exploration, and uncovering implications of theories, often overcoming empirical limitations to promote deeper understanding.

Defining Thought Experiments

A thought experiment is a structured and systematic exercise of the imagination that aims to investigate or explore a specific idea or concept.

Unlike physical experiments that involve real-world observations and measurements, thought experiments take place solely in the mind.

They allow us to consider “what if” scenarios and explore the consequences of hypothetical situations.

Principles of Thought Experiments

  • Conceivability: Thought experiments must be conceivable and mentally graspable. The scenarios should be coherent and logically consistent within the framework of the experiment.
  • Clarity: A well-constructed thought experiment should offer clear and unambiguous conclusions or insights. It should avoid ambiguity or vagueness.
  • Relevance: Thought experiments are designed to shed light on specific questions or problems. They should be relevant to the topic under investigation.
  • Logical Rigor: Thought experiments should adhere to the principles of logic and reason. They should follow valid deductive or inductive reasoning.

Famous Examples of Thought Experiments

  • Schrodinger’s Cat: Proposed by physicist Erwin Schrödinger in 1935, this experiment illustrates the paradoxes of quantum mechanics. In the scenario, a cat inside a sealed box may be simultaneously alive and dead until observed, highlighting the strange behavior of particles at the quantum level.
  • The Trolley Problem: A moral thought experiment involving a runaway trolley headed for five people tied to a track. Participants must decide whether to pull a lever to divert the trolley onto another track, potentially sacrificing one person to save five. This experiment explores ethical dilemmas and utilitarianism.
  • Einstein’s Elevator: Albert Einstein used the thought experiment of an individual in a sealed elevator to develop his theory of general relativity. The acceleration experienced in the elevator is indistinguishable from gravitational forces, leading to the equivalence principle.
  • The Ship of Theseus: A philosophical thought experiment that questions the nature of identity and change. If all the parts of a ship are replaced over time, is it still the same ship? This experiment delves into metaphysics and identity.

Impact of Thought Experiments

  • Scientific Advancement: Thought experiments have played a crucial role in the development of scientific theories. They allow scientists to explore the consequences of their hypotheses and refine their understanding of the natural world.
  • Philosophical Inquiry: Philosophers use thought experiments to address complex philosophical questions about ethics, metaphysics, and epistemology. They provide a method for examining abstract concepts and principles.
  • Ethical Dilemmas: Thought experiments like the trolley problem have practical implications in ethics and moral philosophy. They challenge our intuitions and force us to confront difficult ethical choices.
  • Innovation and Problem-Solving: Beyond academia, thought experiments have practical applications in problem-solving and innovation. They encourage creative thinking and the exploration of alternative solutions.

Conclusion

Thought experiments are remarkable tools that bridge the gap between imagination and knowledge.

By mentally exploring hypothetical scenarios and carefully considering their implications, we gain valuable insights into the mysteries of science, the complexities of philosophy, and the nuances of ethical dilemmas.

From Schrödinger’s cat to the Ship of Theseus, these intellectual exercises have left an indelible mark on our understanding of the universe and our place within it.

As we continue to grapple with profound questions and challenges, thought experiments remain an essential instrument for expanding the boundaries of human knowledge and imagination.

Key Highlights of Thought Experiments:

  • Definition: Thought Experiments are mental exercises employing hypothetical scenarios to explore, test, or illustrate concepts, theories, and philosophies.
  • Hypothetical Scenarios: Thought Experiments use imaginary situations to investigate ideas, allowing for creative exploration.
  • Concept Testing: They serve as a means to evaluate theories within controlled mental spaces, providing insights that might not be possible through empirical methods.
  • Examples:
    • Schrödinger’s Cat: Envisions a cat in two states to illustrate quantum principles.
    • The Trolley Problem: Poses moral dilemmas involving a runaway trolley to explore ethical theories.
  • Purpose:
    • Concept Exploration: Thought Experiments unveil the implications of theories and concepts, shedding light on their intricacies.
    • Philosophical Inquiry: They are a valuable tool for exploring and discussing philosophical questions and paradoxes.
  • Limitations:
    • Subjectivity: Results of thought experiments can be influenced by the perspectives and biases of those conducting them.
    • Empirical Validation: Thought experiments, while insightful, may lack real-world evidence or empirical support, which can limit their applicability in certain contexts.
FrameworkDescriptionWhen to Apply
GedankenexperimentGedankenexperiment: Thought experiments, known as “Gedankenexperiments” in German, are theoretical exercises conducted in the mind to explore complex concepts or hypothetical scenarios. Understanding Gedankenexperiments helps individuals test theories, challenge assumptions, and gain insights into abstract phenomena. Interventions may involve conceptualizing thought experiments, exploring hypothetical scenarios, and analyzing thought experiment outcomes to deepen understanding and foster critical thinking.Testing theories and challenging assumptions through conceptualizing thought experiments or exploring hypothetical scenarios, in scientific research or philosophical inquiry where individuals seek to gain insights, in implementing thought experiment analysis that evaluates outcomes and implications, in adopting approaches that foster critical thinking and creativity through Gedankenexperiment principles.
Counterfactual ThinkingCounterfactual Thinking: Thought experiments involve counterfactual thinking, where individuals consider what might have happened if past events unfolded differently. Understanding counterfactual thinking helps individuals analyze causality, evaluate decision-making processes, and learn from alternative outcomes. Interventions may involve counterfactual analysis, scenario exploration, and decision hindsight exercises to enhance decision-making skills and develop a deeper understanding of causal relationships.Analyzing causality and decision-making processes through counterfactual analysis or decision hindsight exercises, in strategic planning or risk assessment where individuals evaluate alternative outcomes, in implementing scenario exploration techniques that examine potential pathways, in adopting approaches that promote learning and adaptability through counterfactual thinking principles.
Philosophical Thought ExperimentsPhilosophical Thought Experiments: Thought experiments are frequently used in philosophy to explore ethical dilemmas, metaphysical concepts, and epistemological questions. Understanding philosophical thought experiments helps individuals engage in philosophical inquiry, examine moral principles, and ponder existential questions. Interventions may involve studying classic thought experiments, debating philosophical issues, and conducting ethical reflections to deepen philosophical understanding and promote ethical reasoning.Engaging in philosophical inquiry and ethical reflection through studying classic thought experiments or debating philosophical issues, in ethics courses or philosophical discussion groups where individuals examine moral principles, in implementing ethical reflections that prompt deep introspection and moral reasoning, in adopting approaches that foster philosophical understanding and ethical awareness through philosophical thought experiment principles.
Scientific MethodScientific Method: Thought experiments are integral to the scientific method, allowing researchers to explore hypotheses, generate predictions, and test theoretical models. Understanding the role of thought experiments in the scientific method helps individuals design experiments, analyze data, and draw conclusions based on empirical evidence. Interventions may involve hypothesis formulation, experimental design, and data interpretation to conduct rigorous scientific inquiry and advance knowledge in various fields.Formulating hypotheses and testing theoretical models through designing experiments or analyzing data, in scientific research or laboratory investigations where individuals explore phenomena, in implementing hypothesis testing techniques that generate predictions and guide inquiry, in adopting approaches that promote empirical rigor and evidence-based reasoning through scientific method principles.
Ethical ReasoningEthical Reasoning: Thought experiments serve as ethical tools to explore moral dilemmas, ethical principles, and value conflicts. Understanding ethical reasoning through thought experiments helps individuals develop moral sensitivity, analyze ethical issues, and make principled decisions. Interventions may involve ethical scenario analysis, moral deliberation, and ethical decision-making exercises to enhance ethical awareness and cultivate moral reasoning skills in various contexts.Analyzing ethical issues and making principled decisions through ethical scenario analysis or moral deliberation, in ethics training or moral reasoning workshops where individuals confront moral dilemmas, in implementing ethical decision-making exercises that promote reflection and deliberation, in adopting approaches that foster ethical awareness and integrity through ethical reasoning principles.
Narrative VisualizationNarrative Visualization: Thought experiments can be visualized through narratives, stories, or hypothetical scenarios to convey complex ideas or explore alternative realities. Understanding narrative visualization helps individuals communicate abstract concepts, engage stakeholders, and inspire creative thinking. Interventions may involve storytelling techniques, scenario planning, and visual storytelling tools to create compelling narratives that stimulate imagination and facilitate understanding of thought experiment outcomes.Communicating abstract concepts and stimulating imagination through storytelling techniques or scenario planning, in innovation workshops or strategic planning sessions where individuals explore future scenarios, in implementing visual storytelling tools that enhance narrative visualization, in adopting approaches that foster creativity and engagement through narrative visualization principles.
Cognitive SimulationCognitive Simulation: Thought experiments involve cognitive simulation, where individuals mentally simulate hypothetical scenarios or outcomes to explore potential consequences. Understanding cognitive simulation helps individuals anticipate risks, plan actions, and make informed decisions in uncertain situations. Interventions may involve mental rehearsal, scenario analysis, and decision tree modeling to simulate different outcomes and develop strategies for effective problem-solving and decision-making.Anticipating risks and planning actions through mental rehearsal or decision tree modeling, in risk management or strategic decision-making where individuals assess alternative scenarios, in implementing scenario analysis techniques that explore potential consequences, in adopting approaches that promote preparedness and adaptability through cognitive simulation principles.
Philosophical EthicsPhilosophical Ethics: Thought experiments play a central role in philosophical ethics, allowing individuals to explore moral intuitions, ethical theories, and moral dilemmas. Understanding philosophical ethics helps individuals engage in ethical discourse, critically evaluate moral arguments, and develop ethical frameworks for decision-making. Interventions may involve ethical thought experiments, ethical debates, and moral reasoning exercises to foster ethical inquiry and cultivate ethical awareness in personal and professional contexts.Engaging in ethical discourse and critical evaluation through ethical thought experiments or moral reasoning exercises, in ethics courses or philosophical seminars where individuals discuss ethical theories, in implementing ethical debates that challenge moral intuitions and assumptions, in adopting approaches that promote ethical reflection and dialogue through philosophical ethics principles.
Creative Problem-SolvingCreative Problem-Solving: Thought experiments stimulate creative problem-solving by encouraging individuals to explore unconventional solutions and imagine alternative realities. Understanding creative problem-solving helps individuals generate innovative ideas, overcome mental barriers, and approach challenges from fresh perspectives. Interventions may involve brainstorming sessions, ideation workshops, and divergent thinking exercises to foster creativity and inspire breakthrough solutions in various domains.Generating innovative ideas and exploring unconventional solutions through brainstorming sessions or ideation workshops, in innovation teams or design thinking projects where individuals tackle complex problems, in implementing divergent thinking exercises that promote exploration of multiple solutions, in adopting approaches that foster creativity and innovation through creative problem-solving principles.
Scenario PlanningScenario Planning: Thought experiments inform scenario planning, a strategic foresight technique used to anticipate future uncertainties and develop proactive strategies. Understanding scenario planning helps organizations prepare for diverse futures, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities. Interventions may involve scenario workshops, futures thinking exercises, and trend analysis to envision alternative futures and develop robust strategies for navigating complexity and change.Preparing for diverse futures and seizing opportunities through scenario workshops or futures thinking exercises, in strategic planning or risk management where organizations explore alternative scenarios, in implementing trend analysis techniques that inform strategic decision-making, in adopting approaches that promote adaptability and resilience through scenario planning principles.
TechniqueDescriptionWhen to Apply
Mind MappingVisualizes ideas and their relationships.When exploring connections between ideas.
BrainwritingSilent brainstorming where participants write down ideas.When you want to encourage individual input without group influence.
SCAMPERModifies existing ideas through Substitute, Combine, Adapt, Modify, Put to another use, Eliminate, Reverse.When you need structured creativity to improve or change an idea.
Round-Robin BrainstormingParticipants take turns contributing ideas.When ensuring equal participation in idea generation.
Affinity DiagramsGroups ideas into categories for analysis.When organizing a large number of ideas into meaningful categories.
SWOT AnalysisIdentifies strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.When assessing strategic position and opportunities.
Fishbone Diagram (Ishikawa)Identifies root causes of problems.When solving complex problems by tracing causes.
Six Thinking HatsExamines ideas from multiple perspectives.When needing a comprehensive evaluation of an idea.
Brainstorming SessionsGroup activity to generate ideas.When needing to generate a wide range of ideas quickly.
Rapid IdeationGenerates ideas quickly under time constraints.When time is limited and you need a burst of creativity.
Idea BoardVisual display of ideas for collaboration.When needing a central place to gather and refine ideas.
Random Word AssociationUses random words to trigger new ideas.When stuck in conventional thinking patterns.
Brainstorming WebConnects related ideas visually.When exploring the relationships between different ideas.
Reverse BrainstormingFocuses on how to cause a problem instead of solving it.When needing to identify potential pitfalls or weaknesses in an idea.
Gap AnalysisIdentifies gaps between current and desired states.When assessing the current situation against goals.
Wishing TechniqueParticipants wish for ideal outcomes.When looking for aspirational and innovative ideas.
Concept FanExpands on an initial idea to generate more ideas.When needing to deepen or broaden an initial concept.
Question StormingGenerates questions to uncover new ideas.When needing to explore a problem deeply through questioning.
StarburstingExplores an idea through questions starting with Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How.When needing a thorough examination of an idea from all angles.
Trigger MethodUses triggers to spark new ideas.When needing external stimuli to generate ideas.
Lotus Blossom TechniqueExpands on core ideas by surrounding them with related ideas.When needing to develop a central idea in detail.
Idea Box (Morphological Analysis)Combines different parameters to generate ideas.When needing to explore all possible combinations of factors.
Crawford’s Slip WritingParticipants write down ideas anonymously.When needing to gather uninfluenced and honest ideas from participants.
Nominal Group TechniqueStructured method for group brainstorming.When requiring structured and equal participation from all group members.
Disney Creative StrategyUses three roles: Dreamer, Realist, and Critic.When needing to refine ideas by looking at them from different perspectives.
BRAINBlueprint, Random connections, Assimilate, Integrate, New thinking.When needing a structured approach to creative problem-solving.
Attribute ListingLists attributes of a problem and explores variations.When needing to dissect and innovate on a specific aspect of a problem.
Analogies and MetaphorsUses analogies to generate new ideas.When needing to think about problems in a new and unfamiliar way.
Collaborative BrainwritingParticipants build on each other’s ideas in writing.When encouraging collaborative idea development without verbal discussion.
Dot VotingParticipants vote on the best ideas using dots.When needing to prioritize ideas quickly and democratically.
Forced ConnectionsCombines unrelated concepts to generate new ideas.When needing to break free from conventional thinking patterns.
Negative BrainstormingFocuses on what not to do.When needing to identify risks and potential pitfalls.
FreewritingWrites continuously to generate ideas.When needing to bypass internal filters and generate raw ideas.
CrowdsourcingCollects ideas from a large group of people.When needing a wide range of ideas from a diverse group.
Idea LotteryRandomly selects and combines ideas.When needing to combine elements in unexpected ways to generate new ideas.
WhiteboardingUses a whiteboard to visualize and connect ideas.When needing a collaborative space for group idea generation.
BodystormingActs out scenarios to generate ideas.When needing to physically engage with a problem to generate ideas.
Role StormingParticipants assume different roles to generate ideas.When needing to see a problem from various perspectives.
Group Passing TechniqueEach participant adds to the previous idea.When needing collaborative idea building with a structured process.
StoryboardingVisualizes ideas in a sequential format.When needing to communicate and develop ideas through a narrative.
Mind ScriptingWrites scripts to explore different scenarios.When needing to explore and develop ideas through detailed scenarios.
Idea RankingRanks ideas based on criteria.When needing to prioritize ideas based on their potential impact and feasibility.
Circle of OpportunityUses a circular diagram to explore ideas.When needing to visualize and connect various opportunities.
Problem ReversalReverses the problem to find new solutions.When needing to think about a problem from a completely different angle.
Word StormingFocuses on key words to generate ideas.When needing to generate ideas centered around specific terms or concepts.
Concept MappingVisualizes relationships between concepts.When needing to explore and understand the connections between various ideas.
Hexagonal ThinkingUses hexagons to connect ideas.When needing to visually and spatially organize and connect ideas.
Idea Speed DatingPairs participants to rapidly exchange ideas.When needing quick and varied input from multiple participants.
Empathy MappingUses empathy to understand user needs and generate ideas.When needing to generate ideas that are deeply rooted in user needs and perspectives.
VisioningImagines future scenarios to generate ideas.When needing to think long-term and generate aspirational ideas.
Divergent ThinkingGenerates many different ideas.When needing a broad range of ideas and solutions.
Convergent ThinkingNarrows down ideas to the best ones.When needing to refine and select the best ideas from a large pool.
User StoriesCreates user scenarios to generate ideas.When needing to develop ideas based on specific user needs and experiences.
Customer Journey MappingVisualizes customer experiences to find opportunities.When needing to identify pain points and opportunities within the customer journey.
Action Priority MatrixPrioritizes ideas based on impact and effort.When needing to focus on the most impactful and feasible ideas.
Thought ExperimentExplores ideas through hypothetical scenarios.When needing to test and explore ideas in a safe, theoretical context.
Pre-Mortem AnalysisAnticipates potential failures to improve ideas.When needing to identify and address potential risks before implementation.
Brain-nettingConducts brainstorming sessions online.When needing to collaborate and generate ideas remotely.
PainstormingFocuses on pain points to generate ideas.When needing to address and solve specific problems or challenges.
Idea SplicingCombines parts of different ideas to create new ones.When needing to innovate by merging existing concepts.
Socratic QuestioningUses deep questioning to generate ideas.When needing to explore ideas through rigorous and thoughtful questioning.
Five WhysAsks “why” five times to get to the root cause of a problem.When needing to uncover the underlying causes of a problem.
Innovation TournamentCompetes to generate the best ideas.When needing a competitive element to drive idea generation and refinement.
SWOT BrainstormingCombines SWOT analysis with brainstorming.When needing to assess and generate ideas based on internal and external factors.
Idea MatrixOrganizes ideas into a matrix for evaluation.When needing to systematically evaluate and compare ideas.
Brainwriting PoolCollects written ideas in a pool for group discussion.When needing to gather and pool ideas for collective evaluation and discussion.
Innovation SprintShort, focused sessions to generate ideas.When needing rapid and intense idea generation and development.
Role Play BrainstormingUses role play to generate ideas.When needing to understand and generate ideas from different perspectives.
ChunkingBreaks down problems into smaller parts to generate ideas.When needing to manage and solve complex problems by addressing smaller components.
Opportunity Mind MapMaps opportunities visually.When needing to visualize and explore various opportunities.
Sailboat RetrospectiveUses a sailboat metaphor to reflect and generate ideas.When needing a creative and engaging way to reflect on progress and generate new ideas.
Idea JournalingKeeps a journal to capture and develop ideas.When needing to continuously capture and refine ideas over time.
Affinity MappingGroups similar ideas together.When needing to organize and make sense of a large number of ideas.
FuturismEnvisions future possibilities to generate ideas.When needing to think ahead and generate ideas based on future trends and scenarios.
Customer Feedback AnalysisUses customer feedback to generate ideas.When needing to generate ideas based on actual customer insights and experiences.
Business Model CanvasMaps business components to find opportunities.When needing to explore and innovate on business models.
Lean CanvasSimplifies the business model canvas for rapid idea generation.When needing a quick and efficient way to develop and test business ideas.
Problem FramingReframes problems to generate new ideas.When needing to see problems in a new light to find innovative solutions.
Lightning Decision JamRapidly generates and decides on ideas.When needing quick and actionable ideas with immediate decision-making.
Ethnographic ResearchObserves users to generate ideas.When needing deep and contextual insights into user behavior and needs.
Idea TournamentCompetes to refine and select the best ideas.When needing a structured competition to drive innovation and idea selection.
SWOT WorkshopConducts workshops combining SWOT and brainstorming.When needing to integrate strategic analysis with creative idea generation.
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)Analyzes failures to generate improvement ideas.When needing to proactively identify and mitigate potential failures.
Analogical ThinkingUses analogies to generate ideas.When needing to leverage similarities between different concepts to generate new ideas.
Interactive BrainstormingUses interactive tools to facilitate brainstorming.When needing dynamic and engaging methods to generate ideas.
Stakeholder BrainstormingEngages stakeholders in idea generation.When needing input and buy-in from various stakeholders.
Idea Parking LotKeeps a list of ideas for future consideration.When needing to capture and save ideas that cannot be addressed immediately.
Strategic BrainstormingFocuses brainstorming on strategic goals.When needing to align idea generation with long-term strategic objectives.
Productive Thinking ModelUses structured thinking to generate ideas.When needing a systematic approach to creative problem-solving.
Opportunity CanvasFocuses on opportunities within the business model.When needing to identify and develop new business opportunities.
Conceptual BlockbustingOvercomes mental blocks to generate ideas.When needing to break through creative barriers and generate fresh ideas.
Hybrid BrainstormingCombines different brainstorming techniques.When needing to leverage multiple methods for diverse idea generation.
Challenge MappingMaps challenges to find solutions.When needing to understand and address specific challenges in detail.
Design CharretteIntensive planning session to generate ideas.When needing a focused and collaborative effort to solve a design problem.
Braintrust SessionsUses a trusted group to generate and refine ideas.When needing expert input and collaboration for idea refinement.
Value Proposition CanvasDevelops value propositions through brainstorming.When needing to create and refine value propositions for products or services.
Innovation JamIntensive, collaborative brainstorming sessions.When needing a concentrated burst of creativity and idea generation.
Delphi MethodUses expert consensus to generate ideas.When needing to leverage expert knowledge and consensus for idea generation.
Creative Problem Solving (CPS)Structured process for generating ideas.When needing a step-by-step approach to solve complex problems creatively.
World CaféFacilitates large group brainstorming through roundtable discussions.When needing to engage a large group in collaborative idea generation.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Ergodicity

ergodicity
Ergodicity is one of the most important concepts in statistics. Ergodicity is a mathematical concept suggesting that a point of a moving system will eventually visit all parts of the space the system moves in. On the opposite side, non-ergodic means that a system doesn’t visit all the possible parts, as there are absorbing barriers

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Metaphorical Thinking

metaphorical-thinking
Metaphorical thinking describes a mental process in which comparisons are made between qualities of objects usually considered to be separate classifications.  Metaphorical thinking is a mental process connecting two different universes of meaning and is the result of the mind looking for similarities.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Google Effect

google-effect
The Google effect is a tendency for individuals to forget information that is readily available through search engines. During the Google effect – sometimes called digital amnesia – individuals have an excessive reliance on digital information as a form of memory recall.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Compromise Effect

compromise-effect
Single-attribute choices – such as choosing the apartment with the lowest rent – are relatively simple. However, most of the decisions consumers make are based on multiple attributes which complicate the decision-making process. The compromise effect states that a consumer is more likely to choose the middle option of a set of products over more extreme options.

Butterfly Effect

butterfly-effect
In business, the butterfly effect describes the phenomenon where the simplest actions yield the largest rewards. The butterfly effect was coined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in 1960 and as a result, it is most often associated with weather in pop culture. Lorenz noted that the small action of a butterfly fluttering its wings had the potential to cause progressively larger actions resulting in a typhoon.

IKEA Effect

ikea-effect
The IKEA effect is a cognitive bias that describes consumers’ tendency to value something more if they have made it themselves. That is why brands often use the IKEA effect to have customizations for final products, as they help the consumer relate to it more and therefore appending to it more value.

Ringelmann Effect 

Ringelmann Effect
The Ringelmann effect describes the tendency for individuals within a group to become less productive as the group size increases.

The Overview Effect

overview-effect
The overview effect is a cognitive shift reported by some astronauts when they look back at the Earth from space. The shift occurs because of the impressive visual spectacle of the Earth and tends to be characterized by a state of awe and increased self-transcendence.

House Money Effect

house-money-effect
The house money effect was first described by researchers Richard Thaler and Eric Johnson in a 1990 study entitled Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice. The house money effect is a cognitive bias where investors take higher risks on reinvested capital than they would on an initial investment.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

Anchoring Effect

anchoring-effect
The anchoring effect describes the human tendency to rely on an initial piece of information (the “anchor”) to make subsequent judgments or decisions. Price anchoring, then, is the process of establishing a price point that customers can reference when making a buying decision.

Decoy Effect

decoy-effect
The decoy effect is a psychological phenomenon where inferior – or decoy – options influence consumer preferences. Businesses use the decoy effect to nudge potential customers toward the desired target product. The decoy effect is staged by placing a competitor product and a decoy product, which is primarily used to nudge the customer toward the target product.

Commitment Bias

commitment-bias
Commitment bias describes the tendency of an individual to remain committed to past behaviors – even if they result in undesirable outcomes. The bias is particularly pronounced when such behaviors are performed publicly. Commitment bias is also known as escalation of commitment.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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