poisoning-the-well

Poisoning the Well

Poisoning the Well is a type of ad hominem (personal attack) fallacy. It occurs when someone attempts to discredit or undermine the credibility of a person’s argument or statement by making derogatory or negative remarks about the person before they have a chance to present their argument. This fallacy is used to prejudice the audience against the speaker or their argument, making it more challenging for them to gain a fair hearing. It is a manipulative tactic that focuses on character assassination rather than addressing the actual argument.

Characteristics of the Poisoning the Well Fallacy

Preemptive Discrediting

The Poisoning the Well fallacy involves preemptively discrediting an opponent or their argument before they have had a chance to present it fully. By casting doubt on the credibility or motives of the opponent, the arguer seeks to undermine the audience’s perception of their argument.

Ad Hominem Attack

A key characteristic of the Poisoning the Well fallacy is the use of ad hominem attacks or personal attacks to discredit the opponent. Instead of addressing the substance of the opponent’s argument, the arguer attacks their character, background, or motives in an attempt to delegitimize their position.

Strategic Timing

The Poisoning the Well fallacy is often employed strategically at the beginning of a discussion or debate to shape the audience’s perception from the outset. By preemptively poisoning the well against the opponent, the arguer seeks to bias the audience in their favor and undermine the opponent’s credibility.

Implications of the Poisoning the Well Fallacy

Undermining Credibility

The primary implication of the Poisoning the Well fallacy is the undermining of the opponent’s credibility and the devaluation of their argument in the eyes of the audience. By casting aspersions on the opponent’s character or motives, the arguer seeks to erode trust and confidence in their position.

Distraction from Substance

By focusing on personal attacks and character assassination, the Poisoning the Well fallacy serves to distract attention from the substance of the opponent’s argument. Instead of engaging with the merits of the argument, the audience may become preoccupied with the perceived flaws or biases of the opponent.

Polarization of Discourse

Repeated use of the Poisoning the Well fallacy can contribute to the polarization of discourse and the breakdown of civil dialogue. By fostering an atmosphere of suspicion and mistrust, the arguer exacerbates ideological divides and impedes constructive engagement and collaboration.

Examples of the Poisoning the Well Fallacy

Political Campaigns

In political campaigns, candidates may use the Poisoning the Well fallacy to smear their opponents and discredit their policies or proposals. By launching preemptive attacks on the character or integrity of their rivals, candidates seek to gain a competitive advantage and sway public opinion in their favor.

Debates and Discussions

In debates and discussions, participants may employ the Poisoning the Well fallacy to undermine the credibility of their opponents or detract from the strength of their arguments. By resorting to personal attacks or innuendo, debaters seek to gain an upper hand and diminish the opposing viewpoint.

Media Coverage

In media coverage of contentious issues or controversies, journalists and commentators may inadvertently engage in the Poisoning the Well fallacy by framing the narrative in a way that casts doubt on the motives or integrity of certain individuals or groups. By selectively highlighting negative information or rumors, media outlets can shape public perception and influence public opinion.

Strategies to Identify and Counteract the Poisoning the Well Fallacy

Focus on Substance

One effective strategy to counteract the Poisoning the Well fallacy is to focus on the substance of the argument rather than engaging with personal attacks or character assassination. By redirecting the discussion back to the merits of the argument, one can avoid being derailed by diversionary tactics.

Demand Evidence

When confronted with preemptive attacks or accusations, it is essential to demand evidence to support any claims made. By challenging unsupported assertions and insisting on factual accuracy, one can expose the fallacious nature of the Poisoning the Well tactic.

Maintain Civility

Maintaining civility and respect in discourse is crucial to counteracting the Poisoning the Well fallacy. By refusing to stoop to personal attacks or engage in mudslinging, one can set a positive example and foster a culture of constructive dialogue and mutual respect.

Conclusion

The Poisoning the Well fallacy represents a deceptive tactic employed to preemptively discredit an opponent or their argument by casting doubt on their credibility or motives. By focusing on personal attacks and character assassination, the arguer seeks to undermine trust in the opponent’s position and bias the audience in their favor. However, by focusing on substance, demanding evidence, and maintaining civility in discourse, individuals can effectively identify and counteract the Poisoning the Well fallacy, fostering more rational and productive discussions.

AspectExplanation
Key CharacteristicsPoisoning the Well typically involves the following elements:
Preemptive Attack: The attacker launches a negative attack or smear campaign against the person making the argument before the argument is even presented.
Character Assassination: The attack often includes personal insults, derogatory comments, or accusations aimed at discrediting the person’s character, qualifications, or motives.
Distracts from the Argument: The goal is to divert attention away from the substance of the argument by tarnishing the image or reputation of the speaker.
Psychological Manipulation: By creating a negative impression of the speaker in the audience’s mind, the attacker hopes to bias the audience against the speaker’s argument, making it more likely that the argument will be dismissed or ignored.
ExamplesExamples of Poisoning the Well include:
Before the debate begins, Person A says, “Don’t listen to anything Person B says; they’re a known liar and cheat.” This preemptive attack attempts to discredit Person B’s arguments before they are even presented.
In a political campaign, a candidate’s opponent runs a series of negative ads that focus on personal flaws, unrelated scandals, or unverified accusations about the candidate. These ads aim to poison the well and turn voters against the candidate.
In an academic setting, a student who dislikes a classmate’s presentation says, “You shouldn’t take anything this person says seriously; they’re just a brown-noser who always tries to impress the professor.” This personal attack seeks to undermine the credibility of the presenter.
Purpose and EffectsThe primary purpose of Poisoning the Well is to prejudice the audience and create a negative bias against the speaker or their argument. The effects can include:
Diminished Credibility: The attacker hopes to make the audience view the speaker as untrustworthy or unreliable, regardless of the actual merits of the argument.
Reduced Openness: Poisoning the Well can make the audience less receptive to the speaker’s ideas, making it challenging for them to present their argument effectively.
Emotional Manipulation: This fallacy relies on emotional manipulation to create a hostile or dismissive attitude toward the speaker.
Shifted Focus: The tactic successfully shifts the focus from the argument’s content to personal attacks on the speaker, diverting attention from the real issues.
CounteractionTo counteract Poisoning the Well fallacies:
Stay Calm and Focused: If you are the target of this fallacy, remain calm and composed. Avoid responding to personal attacks and focus on presenting your argument logically and persuasively.
Address the Argument: Encourage the audience to focus on the actual argument being presented and request that personal attacks be set aside.
Highlight Fallacy: Politely point out the fallacious nature of the attack, explaining that it is an attempt to divert attention from the argument itself.
Appeal to Fairness: Encourage the audience to consider the argument on its merits and not be swayed by ad hominem attacks.
Use Evidence and Logic: Bolster your argument with strong evidence and logical reasoning to overcome any initial bias created by the poisoning of the well.
Real-World SignificancePoisoning the Well fallacies are commonly encountered in political debates, online discussions, advertising, and personal disputes. They can have a significant impact on public perception, as they exploit psychological biases and emotions to manipulate attitudes toward individuals and their arguments. Recognizing and addressing this fallacy is essential for maintaining fair and constructive discourse in various domains, including politics, media, and interpersonal communication.

ContextDescriptionImplicationsHow to AvoidExamples
Political DebateIn a political debate, a candidate may start by saying, “My opponent is known for dishonesty and corruption,” poisoning the well to bias the audience against their opponent’s arguments.– Impedes fair and constructive debate. – Encourages polarization and negative campaigning. – Reduces the focus on substantive issues.Avoid falling victim by assessing claims objectively and seeking out additional information about the candidates.– A politician prefaces a debate with accusations of their opponent’s unethical behavior to discredit their arguments. – A candidate uses negative ad campaigns to create a negative perception of their rival.
Product ReviewA competitor of a particular product might write a negative review before actual customers have a chance to review it, creating a negative perception before genuine feedback is given.– Misleads consumers and affects their purchasing decisions. – Damages the reputation of a product unfairly. – May lead to missed opportunities for genuine improvements based on feedback.Avoid falling victim by cross-referencing reviews, looking for credible sources, and considering multiple perspectives.– A company’s competitor posts a fake review claiming their rival’s product is unsafe. – A new product is released, and a user creates a negative review before anyone has had a chance to use it.
Jury SelectionDuring jury selection, an attorney may mention unflattering information about a witness or the opposing counsel to predispose potential jurors against them before any evidence is presented.– Can lead to biased jury decisions. – Undermines the principle of a fair trial. – May obstruct the presentation of valid arguments.Avoid falling victim by understanding the importance of impartiality and being cautious of prejudicial information.– An attorney mentions an unrelated crime committed by a witness to make the jury doubt their credibility. – A lawyer discusses an opposing attorney’s past ethical violations to sway the jury against them.
Workplace GossipIn a workplace, a colleague might spread rumors about a new employee before others get to know them, making it difficult for the new hire to build positive relationships.– Creates a toxic work environment. – Hinders collaboration and teamwork. – Can lead to misunderstandings and hostility among colleagues.Avoid falling victim by addressing concerns directly with the individual rather than relying on hearsay.– A coworker spreads false information about a new colleague’s performance issues, making others wary of working with them. – Office gossip damages the reputation of an employee before they even join the company.
Online DiscussionIn an online forum, a user might preface their comment with “I heard from a reliable source that…” and then present false or negative information about the topic, poisoning the discussion.– Degrades the quality of online discourse. – Encourages misinformation and echo chambers. – Can lead to hostility and personal attacks.Avoid falling victim by fact-checking claims, considering the credibility of sources, and engaging in respectful, evidence-based discussions.– A user posts a comment starting with “I heard from a reliable source that the company is going bankrupt,” without providing evidence. – False information is presented as fact to discredit a discussion on a social issue.
Marketing CampaignA company might run an advertising campaign that indirectly implies negative associations with a competitor’s product or brand, aiming to discourage potential customers.– Can mislead consumers and create a biased view of the competitor’s product. – May lead to unfair competition practices. – Reduces focus on the merits of one’s own product.Avoid falling victim by critically evaluating marketing claims and seeking objective information about products.– A company’s ad campaign subtly suggests that a rival’s product is unsafe without providing evidence. – A brand compares itself to competitors in a way that implies others’ inferiority.
Academic SettingIn an academic setting, a student might tell classmates, “The professor is incredibly tough and unfair in grading,” poisoning the conversation by framing the other person as consistently wrong.– Influences others’ perceptions of the professor and the course. – May discourage students from participating or engaging in the class. – Can lead to a negative learning experience.Avoid falling victim by forming your own opinions and engaging in open discussions with peers and instructors.– A student spreads rumors about a professor’s grading practices, leading others to expect unfair treatment. – Classmates create a negative perception of a peer, making it difficult for them to contribute to discussions.
Relationship ConflictDuring a conflict in a relationship, one partner might say, “You always do this; you never listen,” poisoning the conversation by framing the other person as consistently wrong.– Escalates conflicts by focusing on negative generalizations. – Hampers productive communication. – Erodes trust and goodwill between individuals.Avoid falling victim by focusing on specific issues, listening actively, and seeking mutually acceptable solutions.– In an argument, one partner accuses the other of always being inconsiderate and never listening, making productive discussion difficult. – A friend consistently frames their friend as unreliable and untrustworthy.
Competitive SportsIn sports, a coach might tell their team, “The opposing team is known for cheating,” in an attempt to undermine their opponents’ confidence and focus before a game.– May create unwarranted anxiety and fear among players. – Reduces the focus on strategy and skills development. – Can lead to hostility and unsportsmanlike conduct.Avoid falling victim by maintaining a positive and focused mindset, trusting in one’s preparation, and adhering to fair play.– A coach tells their team that the opponent always cheats, making players anxious and distrustful during a game. – A sports team engages in unsportsmanlike conduct, believing their opponent is cheating.
Political PropagandaIn political propaganda, a group may release false or misleading information about an opponent to damage their reputation and credibility before an election or campaign.– Undermines the integrity of the political process. – Misleads voters and affects election outcomes. – Encourages divisive and polarized political discourse.Avoid falling victim by fact-checking political claims, seeking diverse sources of information, and engaging in informed voting.– A political group releases a false statement about an opponent’s criminal record to discredit their candidacy. – Misleading information about a candidate’s personal life is circulated to damage their reputation.
Related Frameworks, Models, ConceptsDescriptionWhen to Apply
Poisoning the Well– A type of logical fallacy where adverse information about a target is preemptively presented to an audience, with the intention of discrediting or ridiculing everything that the target person is about to say. It is an attempt to create a hostile or biased audience against the subject before they even have a chance to present their case.– Important to recognize and avoid in debates and discussions to ensure fairness and objectivity in how information and individuals are judged.
Ad Hominem– A fallacy that involves attacking the character or traits of the person making an argument rather than addressing the substance of the argument itself. This tactic is often used to undermine the opponent’s position by attacking its source rather than its substance.– Critical to avoid in rational debate to maintain focus on the arguments rather than the personal characteristics of the participants.
Straw Man Argument– A common fallacy that involves misrepresenting an opponent’s position to make it easier to attack or refute by exaggerating, misrepresenting, or just completely fabricating the argument.– Useful to detect and correct in discussions to ensure that debates are fair and accurately represent the viewpoints being discussed.
Red Herring– A fallacy that occurs when an irrelevant topic is introduced to divert the attention of listeners or readers from the original issue. It is a deliberate diversion of attention with the intention of abandoning the original argument.– Be aware of and steer clear of in discussions and arguments to maintain focus on the original topic and avoid distraction by irrelevant details.
Appeal to Authority– A fallacy in arguing that a claim must be true just because it is made by someone who is perceived to be an authority on the subject. While not always fallacious, it can be misleading if the authority is not genuinely qualified to speak on the subject.– Evaluate and use cautiously in arguments where the citation of an authority is not a substitute for an actual argument.
Circular Reasoning– An argument that commits the logical fallacy of assuming what it is attempting to prove. The argument goes around in a circle and comes back to where it started, without arriving at any new conclusion.– Identify and critique in discussions where the reasoning provided fails to be persuasive because it merely restates the initial assertion.
Begging the Question– A logical fallacy in which an argument’s premises assume the truth of the conclusion, instead of supporting it. It’s essentially arguing in a circle.– Important to identify and challenge in discussions where conclusions are assumed within the arguments without proper justification.
False Dilemma– A fallacy that occurs when someone is asked to choose between two options when in fact more options exist. Also known as either/or fallacy, it limits the possible choices to avoid consideration of other alternatives.– Watch for and clarify in situations where complex decisions are oversimplified into two choices, potentially overlooking viable alternatives.
Slippery Slope– A fallacy that assumes that a relatively small first step will inevitably lead to a chain of related events culminating in some significant impact, typically negative. This fallacy suggests that once the first step is undertaken, a second or third unavoidable step will follow, much like sliding down a slippery slope.– Analyze and challenge in scenarios where the progression of events is presumed to be negative without sufficient evidence for such a drastic outcome.
Hasty Generalization– A fallacy of faulty generalization by reaching an inductive generalization based on insufficient evidence—essentially making a rushed conclusion without considering all of the variables.– Avoid in analysis and decision-making where broad conclusions are drawn from too small a set of data points, potentially leading to erroneous outcomes.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Ergodicity

ergodicity
Ergodicity is one of the most important concepts in statistics. Ergodicity is a mathematical concept suggesting that a point of a moving system will eventually visit all parts of the space the system moves in. On the opposite side, non-ergodic means that a system doesn’t visit all the possible parts, as there are absorbing barriers

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Metaphorical Thinking

metaphorical-thinking
Metaphorical thinking describes a mental process in which comparisons are made between qualities of objects usually considered to be separate classifications.  Metaphorical thinking is a mental process connecting two different universes of meaning and is the result of the mind looking for similarities.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Google Effect

google-effect
The Google effect is a tendency for individuals to forget information that is readily available through search engines. During the Google effect – sometimes called digital amnesia – individuals have an excessive reliance on digital information as a form of memory recall.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Compromise Effect

compromise-effect
Single-attribute choices – such as choosing the apartment with the lowest rent – are relatively simple. However, most of the decisions consumers make are based on multiple attributes which complicate the decision-making process. The compromise effect states that a consumer is more likely to choose the middle option of a set of products over more extreme options.

Butterfly Effect

butterfly-effect
In business, the butterfly effect describes the phenomenon where the simplest actions yield the largest rewards. The butterfly effect was coined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in 1960 and as a result, it is most often associated with weather in pop culture. Lorenz noted that the small action of a butterfly fluttering its wings had the potential to cause progressively larger actions resulting in a typhoon.

IKEA Effect

ikea-effect
The IKEA effect is a cognitive bias that describes consumers’ tendency to value something more if they have made it themselves. That is why brands often use the IKEA effect to have customizations for final products, as they help the consumer relate to it more and therefore appending to it more value.

Ringelmann Effect 

Ringelmann Effect
The Ringelmann effect describes the tendency for individuals within a group to become less productive as the group size increases.

The Overview Effect

overview-effect
The overview effect is a cognitive shift reported by some astronauts when they look back at the Earth from space. The shift occurs because of the impressive visual spectacle of the Earth and tends to be characterized by a state of awe and increased self-transcendence.

House Money Effect

house-money-effect
The house money effect was first described by researchers Richard Thaler and Eric Johnson in a 1990 study entitled Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice. The house money effect is a cognitive bias where investors take higher risks on reinvested capital than they would on an initial investment.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

Anchoring Effect

anchoring-effect
The anchoring effect describes the human tendency to rely on an initial piece of information (the “anchor”) to make subsequent judgments or decisions. Price anchoring, then, is the process of establishing a price point that customers can reference when making a buying decision.

Decoy Effect

decoy-effect
The decoy effect is a psychological phenomenon where inferior – or decoy – options influence consumer preferences. Businesses use the decoy effect to nudge potential customers toward the desired target product. The decoy effect is staged by placing a competitor product and a decoy product, which is primarily used to nudge the customer toward the target product.

Commitment Bias

commitment-bias
Commitment bias describes the tendency of an individual to remain committed to past behaviors – even if they result in undesirable outcomes. The bias is particularly pronounced when such behaviors are performed publicly. Commitment bias is also known as escalation of commitment.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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