emergent-properties

Emergent Properties

Emergent properties, born from complex system interactions, are crucial for modeling intricate systems and fostering innovation. Despite their benefits, predicting and controlling them pose challenges. They significantly impact scientific research and have applications in diverse fields, highlighting their importance. Examples include consciousness, ecosystem stability, and economic bubbles.

Characteristics:

  • Non-Summativity: Emergent properties cannot be derived by summing up the properties of individual components.
  • Context-Dependent: They depend on the interactions and relationships within a system.
  • Novelty: Emergent properties often exhibit new and unexpected qualities not present in the system’s parts.
  • Scale-Dependent: Emergence can occur at different scales, from microscopic to macroscopic levels.
  • Systemic Complexity: Complex systems with many interconnected elements are more likely to exhibit emergent properties.

Elements:

  • Interaction: Emergent properties result from the interactions and relationships among system elements.
  • Connectivity: The degree of connectivity and feedback loops in a system influences the emergence of properties.
  • System Structure: The arrangement and organization of components affect the nature of emergent properties.

Benefits:

  • Problem Solving: Emergent properties help in understanding and solving complex problems.
  • Innovation: They can inspire novel solutions and technological advancements.
  • Scientific Discovery: Emergent phenomena often lead to new scientific insights.

Challenges:

  • Prediction: It is difficult to predict specific emergent properties in complex systems accurately.
  • Control: Manipulating or controlling emergent properties can be challenging.
  • Modeling: Developing accurate models to represent emergent phenomena is a complex task.

Implications:

  • Scientific Research: Emergent properties are fundamental to various scientific disciplines, including physics, biology, and sociology.
  • Technological Advancements: They play a role in developing cutting-edge technologies and systems.
  • System Understanding: Understanding emergent properties is essential for gaining insights into complex systems.

Applications:

  • Network Analysis: Studying network dynamics, such as traffic patterns in cities or social networks.
  • Ecology: Understanding ecosystem dynamics and biodiversity.
  • Economics: Analyzing economic systems, including market behavior and financial crises.

Importance:

  • Complex Systems: Emergent properties are pivotal in analyzing and modeling complex systems.
  • Scientific Inquiry: They contribute significantly to scientific discoveries and advancements.
  • Problem Solving: Emergent properties aid in addressing real-world challenges and finding innovative solutions.

Examples of Emergent Properties:

Emergent properties manifest in a wide range of natural and artificial systems, including:

  • Consciousness: Consciousness is often considered an emergent property of complex neural networks in the human brain. While individual neurons operate based on simple rules, the collective interactions among billions of neurons give rise to subjective experiences, thoughts, and self-awareness.
  • Flocking Behavior: Flocking behavior observed in bird flocks, fish schools, or insect swarms is an emergent property arising from simple rules of interaction among individual agents. Without centralized control, large-scale patterns of collective motion emerge, enabling groups of organisms to move cohesively and respond to environmental stimuli.
  • Phase Transitions: Phase transitions in physics, such as the transition from a liquid to a gas or from a magnetized to a demagnetized state, exhibit emergent properties at critical thresholds. The behavior of the system at the phase transition point is qualitatively different from that of its constituent parts, indicating the emergence of new collective behaviors.
  • Economic Markets: Price formation, market dynamics, and economic equilibrium in financial markets are examples of emergent properties arising from the interactions of individual buyers and sellers. Market prices reflect the collective decisions, preferences, and information of market participants, leading to the emergence of market trends, bubbles, or crashes.

Significance of Emergent Properties:

Emergent properties have significant implications for understanding and modeling complex systems:

  • System Understanding: Emergent properties provide insights into the underlying dynamics and organization of complex systems, helping researchers uncover hidden patterns, structures, or behaviors that may not be apparent at lower levels of analysis.
  • Predictive Modeling: Understanding emergent properties allows for more accurate predictive modeling of complex systems, enabling researchers to anticipate system behaviors, transitions, or critical thresholds and design interventions accordingly.
  • Engineering Design: Designing artificial systems that exhibit desired emergent properties, such as self-organization, resilience, or adaptability, can inform the development of innovative technologies, algorithms, or architectures for applications in robotics, computing, or materials science.
  • Policy and Decision-Making: Incorporating knowledge of emergent properties into policy and decision-making processes can help address complex societal challenges, such as urban planning, environmental management, or public health, by considering the collective impacts of individual actions or interventions.

Case Studies

  • Water’s States of Matter: The liquid, solid, and gaseous states of water are emergent properties that arise from the interactions between water molecules.
  • Traffic Jams: Traffic jams emerge from the interactions of individual vehicles on the road, leading to congestion and slower traffic flow.
  • Ant Colony Behavior: Ant colonies exhibit emergent behavior as individual ants follow simple rules, resulting in complex patterns of foraging, nest-building, and defense.
  • Bird Flocking: Flocking behavior in birds is an emergent property where individual birds follow basic rules, leading to coordinated group movements and intricate flight patterns.
  • Neuronal Synapses: Synaptic connections between neurons in the brain give rise to emergent properties like memory, learning, and consciousness.
  • Stock Market Volatility: Stock market fluctuations and crashes can emerge from the collective behavior of traders, investors, and market dynamics.
  • Ecosystem Resilience: Ecosystems exhibit emergent properties related to their stability and resilience, even in the face of environmental changes.
  • Social Norms: Social norms and cultural practices emerge from the interactions of individuals within a society, shaping behavior and expectations.
  • Urban Traffic Flow: The flow of traffic in a city can show emergent properties as it responds to factors like road conditions, traffic signals, and driver behavior.
  • Economic Bubbles: Economic bubbles form when speculative investments and collective behavior lead to the rapid rise and eventual collapse of asset prices.
  • Weather Patterns: Weather patterns, such as hurricanes and tornadoes, emerge from complex interactions between temperature, humidity, and air pressure.
  • Consciousness: Consciousness is considered an emergent property of the human brain’s intricate neural networks and their interactions.
  • Chemical Reactions: The products of chemical reactions can exhibit emergent properties that are different from the individual reactants.
  • Internet Traffic: Internet traffic patterns, including data routing and congestion, emerge from the interactions of users and network infrastructure.
  • Ecological Succession: The process of ecological succession involves the emergent property of changing species composition in ecosystems over time.

Key Highlights

  • Definition: Emergent properties are characteristics or behaviors of a system that arise from the interactions and relationships among its individual components, often leading to outcomes that cannot be predicted from the properties of those components alone.
  • Complex Systems: Emergent properties are typically observed in complex systems, where numerous elements interact, and their collective behavior gives rise to new properties or phenomena.
  • Non-Reductionist: Emergence challenges reductionist approaches by emphasizing that understanding a system’s parts alone is insufficient to explain its overall behavior.
  • Multiple Scales: Emergent properties can manifest at multiple scales, from the microscopic (e.g., particles in a gas) to the macroscopic (e.g., ecosystems or social structures).
  • Examples: Examples of emergent properties include flocking behavior in birds, traffic jams, neural networks in the brain, and economic market dynamics.
  • Unpredictability: Emergent properties often introduce an element of unpredictability, making it difficult to foresee specific outcomes, even with a deep understanding of the system’s components.
  • Interdisciplinary: The concept of emergence is fundamental in fields ranging from physics and biology to sociology and economics, highlighting its interdisciplinary nature.
  • Systems Thinking: Emergent properties encourage systems thinking, where the focus is on understanding the relationships and interactions within a system to explain its emergent behaviors.
  • Scientific Inquiry: Studying emergent properties is essential for addressing complex scientific questions and solving real-world problems, such as climate modeling and disease spread.
  • Philosophical Significance: Emergence has philosophical implications, challenging reductionist philosophies and raising questions about the nature of causality and explanation in science.
  • Resilience and Adaptation: Understanding emergent properties is critical for enhancing resilience and adaptability in systems, such as ecological systems responding to environmental changes.
  • Emergent Technologies: Advances in fields like artificial intelligence and computational modeling have enabled the exploration and simulation of emergent properties in various domains.
  • Ethical Considerations: Ethical dilemmas related to emergent properties may arise, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence ethics and socio-technical systems.
  • Limitations: While emergent properties provide valuable insights, they can also pose challenges in terms of measurement, prediction, and control, particularly in highly complex systems.
  • Scientific Exploration: Ongoing scientific research continues to uncover new emergent properties and their underlying mechanisms, deepening our understanding of complex systems.

Framework NameDescriptionWhen to Apply
Emergent Properties– Emergent properties refer to novel characteristics, behaviors, or patterns that arise from the interactions and relationships among individual components within a complex system, suggesting that emergent properties cannot be predicted or reduced to the properties of individual elements alone but result from the collective dynamics and self-organization of the system as a whole. This concept underscores the importance of understanding system-level phenomena and behaviors that emerge from the interactions and interdependencies of its components.When analyzing complex systems or phenomena, to consider emergent properties by examining how interactions among individual elements give rise to higher-order patterns, structures, or behaviors, fostering a deeper understanding of system dynamics and enabling the identification of emergent properties that may influence system behavior, resilience, and adaptability, informing strategies for managing complex systems and fostering innovation and creativity.
Complex Systems– Complex systems are dynamic networks comprised of interconnected elements or agents that interact with each other, exhibiting emergent properties that cannot be fully understood or predicted by analyzing individual components in isolation, suggesting that complex systems exhibit nonlinear, adaptive behavior characterized by feedback loops, self-organization, and emergent phenomena, which may have significant implications for system behavior and outcomes.When studying complex phenomena or systems, to apply the concept of emergent properties by recognizing that system behavior arises from interactions among diverse elements, exploring how emergent properties manifest at different scales or levels of organization, and identifying leverage points or intervention strategies that can influence system dynamics and outcomes, enabling more effective management, decision-making, and innovation in complex systems.
Self-Organization– Self-organization refers to the spontaneous emergence of order or patterns within a system without external control or central coordination, suggesting that self-organization is a fundamental property of complex systems that enables adaptive, flexible behavior and fosters resilience and innovation, as system elements interact and adapt to changing conditions, forming coherent structures or behaviors that optimize system performance or functionality.When studying organizational dynamics or biological systems, to explore the concept of self-organization by examining how interactions among agents or components give rise to emergent structures, behaviors, or functions, fostering a deeper understanding of system resilience, adaptability, and innovation, and informing strategies for promoting self-organization and harnessing emergent properties to enhance organizational effectiveness, creativity, and adaptability.
Nonlinear Dynamics– Nonlinear dynamics refers to the behavior of systems that cannot be predicted by linear relationships or cause-and-effect chains, suggesting that nonlinear dynamics underlie the emergence of complex phenomena and patterns observed in natural and human-made systems, which may exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions, bifurcations, or phase transitions, leading to unpredictable or counterintuitive behavior that arises from the interactions and feedback among system components.When modeling or analyzing system behavior, to consider nonlinear dynamics and emergent properties by recognizing that system behavior may exhibit nonlinear relationships, feedback loops, or tipping points, exploring how small changes in system conditions or parameters can lead to dramatic shifts in behavior or outcomes, and identifying methods or tools for studying nonlinear systems and predicting emergent phenomena, enabling more accurate forecasting, risk assessment, and decision-making in complex systems.
Adaptive Systems– Adaptive systems are dynamic, self-regulating entities that respond to changes in their environment or internal conditions, suggesting that adaptive systems exhibit emergent properties that arise from the interactions and feedback among system elements, enabling them to learn, evolve, and self-organize in response to changing conditions, fostering resilience, innovation, and sustainability in complex, uncertain environments.When designing resilient systems or organizational structures, to incorporate principles of adaptive systems by fostering flexibility, responsiveness, and self-organization, enabling systems to adapt and evolve in changing environments, and harnessing emergent properties to enhance system resilience, innovation, and sustainability, enabling organizations to thrive and succeed in dynamic, uncertain conditions.
Systems Thinking– Systems thinking involves understanding and analyzing systems as interconnected networks of elements and feedback loops, recognizing patterns, dynamics, and emergent properties that influence system behavior, suggesting that systems thinking provides a foundation for exploring emergent properties and understanding how interactions among system elements give rise to higher-order phenomena, fostering a holistic, interdisciplinary perspective on complex systems.When studying or managing complex systems, to apply systems thinking by mapping system structures and dynamics, identifying feedback loops and emergent properties, and exploring how interactions among system elements shape system behavior and outcomes, fostering a comprehensive understanding of system dynamics and enabling the identification of leverage points or intervention strategies to promote desirable emergent properties and system outcomes.
Innovation and Creativity– Innovation and creativity involve generating novel ideas, solutions, or designs that challenge existing norms, structures, or paradigms, suggesting that fostering innovation and creativity requires understanding how emergent properties arise from interactions among diverse elements, fostering a culture of experimentation, collaboration, and openness to new ideas, and leveraging emergent properties to drive breakthrough innovations and transformative change in organizations and societies.When promoting innovation or creativity in organizations or communities, to explore emergent properties as a source of inspiration and insight, fostering a culture of experimentation, collaboration, and diversity of thought, and creating spaces and processes that enable individuals and teams to explore new ideas, experiment with alternative approaches, and harness emergent properties to drive innovative solutions and create positive change.
Resilience and Adaptability– Resilience and adaptability involve the capacity of systems to absorb disturbances, recover from shocks, and adapt to changing conditions, suggesting that understanding emergent properties is crucial for building resilient, adaptive systems that can thrive in dynamic, uncertain environments, fostering flexibility, redundancy, and diversity, and leveraging emergent properties to enhance system robustness, agility, and responsiveness to disruptions or changes.When promoting resilience and adaptability in organizations or ecosystems, to consider emergent properties as drivers of system resilience and adaptability, fostering flexibility, redundancy, and diversity, and leveraging emergent properties to enhance system robustness, agility, and responsiveness to changing conditions, enabling systems to withstand shocks and disruptions and adapt and evolve over time.
Innovation Ecosystems– Innovation ecosystems involve interconnected networks of organizations, individuals, and institutions that collaborate to generate and commercialize new ideas, technologies, or products, suggesting that understanding emergent properties is essential for fostering innovation and entrepreneurship within ecosystems, fostering collaboration, knowledge sharing, and cross-pollination of ideas and resources, and leveraging emergent properties to drive ecosystem growth and competitiveness.When fostering innovation ecosystems or supporting entrepreneurial ecosystems, to explore emergent properties as drivers of ecosystem dynamics, fostering collaboration, knowledge sharing, and cross-pollination of ideas and resources, and leveraging emergent properties to drive ecosystem growth, competitiveness, and resilience, enabling ecosystems to thrive and catalyze economic growth and social development.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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