Analogical Reasoning

Analogical Reasoning

Analogical Reasoning is a cognitive process that involves identifying similarities between different situations and applying knowledge gained from one context to another. This enables creative problem-solving and accelerated learning, as individuals draw parallels to solve new challenges and make decisions by recognizing commonalities and transferring insights.

Defining Analogical Reasoning

Analogical reasoning, often referred to as analogy, is a cognitive process that involves recognizing similarities between two or more situations or concepts and using these similarities to make inferences or solve problems. It is based on the idea that if two things are alike in some aspects, they are likely to be alike in other aspects as well. Analogies are comparisons that help us understand, explain, or solve problems in new or unfamiliar contexts by relating them to more familiar ones.

Analogies can take various forms, including:

  1. Literal Analogies: These involve straightforward comparisons between two things, highlighting similarities in attributes or properties. For example, “The heart is like a pump.”
  2. Metaphors: Metaphorical analogies go beyond literal similarities to convey abstract or complex ideas. For instance, “Time is a thief.”
  3. Symbolic Analogies: In symbolic analogies, abstract symbols or representations are compared to convey meaning. An example is using mathematical equations to explain a physical phenomenon.
  4. Proportional Analogies: These analogies involve relationships between quantities or proportions. For example, “A is to B as C is to D.”

Key Characteristics of Analogical Reasoning

Analogical reasoning exhibits several key characteristics:

  1. Transfer of Knowledge: Analogical reasoning allows individuals to transfer knowledge and insights gained in one context to another. It bridges the gap between familiar and unfamiliar situations.
  2. Pattern Recognition: It relies on pattern recognition, as individuals identify similarities or commonalities between different scenarios or concepts.
  3. Creative Thinking: Analogical reasoning often involves creative thinking, as it requires individuals to make novel connections and see beyond surface-level similarities.
  4. Problem Solving: Analogical reasoning is a valuable tool for problem-solving. By drawing analogies, individuals can apply solutions from one context to address problems in another.

Benefits of Analogical Reasoning

Analogical reasoning offers numerous benefits across various domains:

  1. Enhanced Learning: Analogies make complex or abstract concepts more accessible by relating them to familiar ideas. This aids in learning and retention.
  2. Problem-Solving: It facilitates problem-solving by providing a framework to adapt solutions from one context to another. This can be particularly valuable in engineering, science, and innovation.
  3. Creative Thinking: Analogical reasoning promotes creative thinking by encouraging individuals to explore unconventional connections and ideas.
  4. Communication: Analogies serve as powerful communication tools, helping individuals convey complex ideas in a more understandable manner.
  5. Cross-Disciplinary Insights: Analogical reasoning encourages cross-disciplinary insights, fostering innovation by applying knowledge from one field to another.

Challenges and Limitations of Analogical Reasoning

While analogical reasoning is a valuable cognitive tool, it is not without challenges and limitations:

  1. Misleading Analogies: Analogies can be misleading if they emphasize surface-level similarities while neglecting critical differences.
  2. Subjectivity: The effectiveness of an analogy can be subjective and context-dependent. What works in one situation may not work in another.
  3. Overreliance: Overreliance on analogical reasoning can lead to tunnel vision, where individuals apply the same solutions to different problems without considering unique aspects.
  4. Complexity: Analogies can oversimplify complex issues, potentially leading to incomplete or inaccurate understanding.
  5. Cultural Differences: Analogies may not be universally understood, as their effectiveness can vary based on cultural and linguistic differences.

Real-World Applications of Analogical Reasoning

Analogical reasoning finds applications in various fields and aspects of everyday life:

Science and Engineering:

  1. Innovation: Engineers often use analogical reasoning to innovate by adapting solutions from one domain to another. For example, studying how birds fly can inspire the design of more efficient aircraft.
  2. Problem-Solving: Analogical reasoning is a powerful tool in scientific research, enabling scientists to apply principles and insights from one field to address challenges in another.

Education:

  1. Teaching and Learning: Analogies are widely used in education to simplify complex concepts and enhance understanding. They make learning more engaging and relatable for students.

Business and Marketing:

  1. Product Development: Companies may draw analogies from successful products or business models in other industries to inform their own product development and strategy.
  2. Advertising: Analogies are used in advertising to make comparisons between products or services and their competitors, highlighting advantages or benefits.

Medicine:

  1. Diagnosis and Treatment: Physicians often use analogical reasoning when diagnosing medical conditions by drawing parallels between symptoms and known diseases.
  2. Drug Discovery: Scientists may find analogies between chemical compounds in nature and potential drug candidates, leading to new pharmaceutical discoveries.

Law and Justice:

  1. Legal Argumentation: Lawyers use analogical reasoning to build legal arguments by comparing cases or precedents to the current case under consideration.
  2. Judicial Decision-Making: Judges may use analogies to interpret and apply the law in cases where there is no direct precedent.

Famous Examples of Analogical Reasoning

  1. Wright Brothers’ Flight: The Wright Brothers, pioneers of aviation, drew analogies between the flight of birds and the principles of aerodynamics to develop the first successful powered aircraft.
  2. Einstein’s Theory of Relativity: Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity was inspired by analogies he drew between the behavior of objects in motion and the behavior of light.
  3. Zipper’s Design: The design of the modern zipper was influenced by the analogy of interlocking teeth, much like those found in the human mouth.

Conclusion

Analogical reasoning is a fundamental cognitive process that enables humans to make connections, find solutions, and understand complex ideas by drawing comparisons between different contexts. While it has its challenges and limitations, analogical reasoning plays a vital role in problem-solving, learning, innovation, and communication across various domains. Embracing and honing this cognitive skill can lead to greater creativity and a deeper understanding of the world around us.

Key Highlights of Analogical Reasoning:

  • Definition: Analogical Reasoning is a cognitive process involving the identification of similarities between different situations and the application of knowledge gained from one context to another.
  • Pattern Recognition: It revolves around the ability to identify similarities between situations or problems.
  • Transfer of Knowledge: Analogical reasoning allows for the transfer of insights and lessons learned from one context to solve problems or make decisions in another context.
  • Benefits:
    • Creative Problem-Solving: It enables individuals to find innovative solutions by adapting existing knowledge and strategies.
    • Enhanced Learning: Accelerated learning occurs as individuals apply familiar concepts to new situations, reinforcing their understanding.
  • Process:
    • Identify Source Situation: Select a situation with relevant parallels to the target problem.
    • Recognize Commonalities: Identify similarities and shared patterns between the source and target situations.
    • Transfer Insights: Apply insights, strategies, or solutions from the source situation to the target situation.
  • Applications:
    • Innovation: Analogical reasoning is crucial for generating novel ideas and solutions by combining concepts from different domains.
    • Decision-Making: It aids in decision-making by using past experiences and insights to guide present choices.
  • Challenges:
    • Relevance Assessment: Ensuring that the identified parallels are indeed applicable and suitable for the target context.
    • Contextual Differences: Addressing variations and differences between situations to ensure that the transferred knowledge is appropriate and effective.

Related Concepts, Frameworks, or ModelsDescriptionWhen to Apply
Analogical Problem SolvingA cognitive process that involves drawing parallels between a familiar problem and an unfamiliar problem to facilitate problem solving, emphasizing the use of analogies and similarities to guide thinking.Applicable when faced with novel or complex problems, emphasizing the use of analogical reasoning to draw upon prior knowledge and experience to inform problem solving and decision making.
Analogical TransferA process whereby knowledge or solutions from one context are applied to another context, emphasizing the transferability of analogical insights and solutions across different domains or problems.Relevant when exploring the application of solutions or insights from one problem domain to another, emphasizing the generalizability of analogical reasoning across varied contexts and tasks.
Structure Mapping TheoryA theory that posits analogical reasoning involves mapping the structural features of a source domain onto a target domain to generate insights and solutions, emphasizing the role of structural alignment and mapping in analogical reasoning.Applicable when analyzing the process of analogical reasoning, emphasizing the importance of structural similarities and mapping between domains in generating analogical insights and solutions across problems and contexts.
Analogical EncodingA process whereby analogical similarities between problems or concepts are encoded and stored in memory, facilitating analogical reasoning and problem solving by enabling the retrieval of relevant analogies from memory for use in novel situations.Relevant when studying the cognitive processes underlying analogical reasoning, emphasizing the role of encoding analogical similarities and structures in memory to facilitate problem solving and decision making across tasks and domains.
Analogical DistanceA concept that refers to the degree of similarity or difference between two analogous problems or concepts, emphasizing the impact of structural and surface features on analogical mapping and transfer of insights.Applicable when evaluating the suitability of analogies for problem solving, emphasizing the influence of similarity and relevance between problems on the effectiveness of analogical reasoning and transfer of insights across tasks.
Analogical Reasoning HeuristicsMental strategies or rules of thumb used to facilitate analogical reasoning and problem solving, such as finding shared structural similarities, abstraction, and retrieving relevant analogies from memory, emphasizing cognitive shortcuts and simplifications in analogical thinking.Relevant when exploring the strategies and processes involved in analogical reasoning, emphasizing the use of heuristics and cognitive shortcuts to facilitate problem solving and decision making by leveraging analogical insights and solutions from memory.
Analogical LearningA process whereby individuals learn from analogies and apply them to new situations or problems, emphasizing the role of analogical reasoning in knowledge acquisition, transfer, and problem solving across domains and contexts.Applicable when studying learning processes and knowledge transfer, emphasizing the use of analogical reasoning to facilitate learning and problem solving by drawing upon analogous situations or concepts to guide new learning and application.
AnalogyA cognitive strategy that involves finding similarities between two concepts or problems, emphasizing the role of comparison, abstraction, and mapping in facilitating understanding and problem solving by leveraging prior knowledge and experience.Relevant when analyzing the core concept underlying analogical reasoning, emphasizing the use of comparison, abstraction, and mapping in facilitating problem solving, decision making, and learning across tasks and domains.
Analogical MappingA cognitive process whereby similarities between two domains are identified and mapped, emphasizing the role of structural and surface features in guiding analogical reasoning and problem solving by facilitating the transfer of insights and solutions across domains.Applicable when studying the process of analogical reasoning, emphasizing the identification and alignment of structural and surface features between domains to facilitate problem solving and transfer of insights and solutions across tasks and contexts.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Ergodicity

ergodicity
Ergodicity is one of the most important concepts in statistics. Ergodicity is a mathematical concept suggesting that a point of a moving system will eventually visit all parts of the space the system moves in. On the opposite side, non-ergodic means that a system doesn’t visit all the possible parts, as there are absorbing barriers

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Metaphorical Thinking

metaphorical-thinking
Metaphorical thinking describes a mental process in which comparisons are made between qualities of objects usually considered to be separate classifications.  Metaphorical thinking is a mental process connecting two different universes of meaning and is the result of the mind looking for similarities.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Google Effect

google-effect
The Google effect is a tendency for individuals to forget information that is readily available through search engines. During the Google effect – sometimes called digital amnesia – individuals have an excessive reliance on digital information as a form of memory recall.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Compromise Effect

compromise-effect
Single-attribute choices – such as choosing the apartment with the lowest rent – are relatively simple. However, most of the decisions consumers make are based on multiple attributes which complicate the decision-making process. The compromise effect states that a consumer is more likely to choose the middle option of a set of products over more extreme options.

Butterfly Effect

butterfly-effect
In business, the butterfly effect describes the phenomenon where the simplest actions yield the largest rewards. The butterfly effect was coined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in 1960 and as a result, it is most often associated with weather in pop culture. Lorenz noted that the small action of a butterfly fluttering its wings had the potential to cause progressively larger actions resulting in a typhoon.

IKEA Effect

ikea-effect
The IKEA effect is a cognitive bias that describes consumers’ tendency to value something more if they have made it themselves. That is why brands often use the IKEA effect to have customizations for final products, as they help the consumer relate to it more and therefore appending to it more value.

Ringelmann Effect 

Ringelmann Effect
The Ringelmann effect describes the tendency for individuals within a group to become less productive as the group size increases.

The Overview Effect

overview-effect
The overview effect is a cognitive shift reported by some astronauts when they look back at the Earth from space. The shift occurs because of the impressive visual spectacle of the Earth and tends to be characterized by a state of awe and increased self-transcendence.

House Money Effect

house-money-effect
The house money effect was first described by researchers Richard Thaler and Eric Johnson in a 1990 study entitled Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice. The house money effect is a cognitive bias where investors take higher risks on reinvested capital than they would on an initial investment.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

Anchoring Effect

anchoring-effect
The anchoring effect describes the human tendency to rely on an initial piece of information (the “anchor”) to make subsequent judgments or decisions. Price anchoring, then, is the process of establishing a price point that customers can reference when making a buying decision.

Decoy Effect

decoy-effect
The decoy effect is a psychological phenomenon where inferior – or decoy – options influence consumer preferences. Businesses use the decoy effect to nudge potential customers toward the desired target product. The decoy effect is staged by placing a competitor product and a decoy product, which is primarily used to nudge the customer toward the target product.

Commitment Bias

commitment-bias
Commitment bias describes the tendency of an individual to remain committed to past behaviors – even if they result in undesirable outcomes. The bias is particularly pronounced when such behaviors are performed publicly. Commitment bias is also known as escalation of commitment.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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