evolutionary-algorithms

Evolutionary Algorithms

Evolutionary Algorithms are population-based search techniques used in optimization, machine learning, robotics, and game playing. They feature selection mechanisms, variation operators, and fitness evaluation, evolving solutions iteratively. While effective for complex problems, they require computational resources and parameter tuning. Examples include solving the Traveling Salesman Problem and training neural networks.

Characteristics:

  • Population-Based: Evolutionary algorithms maintain a population, typically comprising multiple candidate solutions or individuals.
  • Selection Mechanisms: These algorithms employ selection methods to decide which individuals from the population will contribute to the next generation. Common selection methods include roulette wheel selection, tournament selection, and rank-based selection.
  • Variation Operators: Variation operators, such as crossover (recombination) and mutation, are applied to selected individuals to create new candidate solutions for the next generation.
  • Fitness Evaluation: The quality of each candidate solution is assessed using a fitness function that quantifies how well it solves the problem at hand.
  • Iterative Process: Evolutionary algorithms iteratively improve candidate solutions over multiple generations, typically until a stopping criterion is met.

Types:

  • Genetic Algorithms (GA): Inspired by biological genetics, GAs use selection, crossover, and mutation operators to optimize solutions. They are widely applied in various fields, including engineering, economics, and biology.
  • Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO): PSO is inspired by the social behavior of birds or fish. Particles in the swarm adjust their positions based on their own experience and the experience of the best-performing particles in the swarm.
  • Ant Colony Optimization (ACO): ACO models the foraging behavior of ants. It is often used to solve combinatorial optimization problems, such as the traveling salesman problem (TSP).

Applications:

  • Optimization Problems: Evolutionary algorithms are commonly used to solve complex optimization problems, including those related to scheduling, resource allocation, and parameter tuning.
  • Machine Learning: They play a role in optimizing machine learning models and neural network architectures by searching for optimal hyperparameters and feature selection.
  • Robotics: Evolutionary algorithms can be employed for robot control, path planning, and the evolution of robot morphologies.
  • Game Playing: In the context of artificial intelligence, these algorithms evolve game agents and strategies for improved gameplay and decision-making.

Benefits & Challenges:

  • Benefits: Evolutionary algorithms are effective at finding high-quality solutions to complex problems, even in multi-modal landscapes where multiple optimal solutions exist. They are highly adaptable and can be applied to a wide range of problem domains.
  • Challenges: These algorithms often demand significant computational resources, especially for problems with large solution spaces. Additionally, parameter tuning and setting appropriate operators can be challenging, and their performance can vary depending on the problem at hand.

Examples:

  • Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP): Evolutionary algorithms can find near-optimal solutions to TSP, which involves determining the shortest route that visits a set of cities and returns to the starting point.
  • Neural Network Training: They are used to optimize neural network architectures, including selecting the right hyperparameters, weights, and activation functions.
  • Evolutionary Art: In the realm of generative art, these algorithms are applied to create aesthetically pleasing images or music by evolving artistic designs or compositions.

Case Studies

  • Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP): EAs can find near-optimal routes for a traveling salesman to visit a set of cities and return to the starting point, minimizing travel distance.
  • Neural Network Architecture Optimization: EAs are used to discover optimal neural network architectures, selecting parameters like layer sizes, activation functions, and learning rates for improved performance.
  • Robotics: In robot control, EAs optimize control strategies for robotic systems to perform tasks efficiently and adapt to dynamic environments.
  • Financial Portfolio Optimization: EAs assist in selecting an investment portfolio that maximizes returns while managing risk by adjusting the allocation of assets.
  • Aircraft Wing Design: In aerospace engineering, EAs help in designing aircraft wings for optimal aerodynamics, reducing fuel consumption and emissions.
  • Game Character Evolution: In video games, EAs evolve game characters or agents to enhance their behaviors, adaptability, and decision-making skills.
  • Drug Discovery: EAs are applied to explore molecular structures and optimize drug compounds for improved efficacy and reduced side effects.
  • Energy Management: They assist in optimizing the distribution and utilization of energy resources, such as in smart grids or building energy management systems.
  • Traffic Signal Optimization: EAs optimize traffic signal timings in urban traffic management, reducing congestion and improving traffic flow.
  • Evolutionary Art: In the realm of generative art, EAs are used to create visually appealing images, music, and even sculptures by evolving artistic designs or compositions.
  • Protein Folding: EAs aid in predicting the 3D structure of proteins, essential for understanding their functions and developing treatments for diseases.
  • Supply Chain Management: EAs optimize supply chain logistics, determining the most efficient routes and schedules for delivering goods.
  • Parameter Tuning for Machine Learning Models: They fine-tune machine learning models by optimizing hyperparameters, improving model performance.
  • Multi-objective Optimization: EAs can simultaneously optimize multiple conflicting objectives, such as maximizing efficiency while minimizing costs in industrial processes.
  • Evolutionary Robotics: EAs evolve robot morphologies and control algorithms for specific tasks or environments.

Key Highlights

  • Inspired by Natural Selection: EAs are computational optimization techniques inspired by the process of natural selection and evolution in biology. They mimic the principles of survival of the fittest, reproduction, and genetic variation to find optimal solutions.
  • Wide Applicability: EAs have a broad range of applications in various domains, including optimization, machine learning, engineering, biology, finance, and art generation.
  • Population-Based Search: Unlike traditional optimization methods that operate with a single solution, EAs maintain a population of candidate solutions, allowing them to explore multiple potential solutions simultaneously.
  • Stochastic Search: EAs use stochastic (randomized) search processes, which means that the algorithm explores different solution spaces probabilistically, increasing the likelihood of finding global optima.
  • Crossover and Mutation: EAs employ genetic operators like crossover (recombination) and mutation to create new candidate solutions by combining and modifying existing ones, introducing genetic diversity.
  • Fitness Function: They rely on a fitness function to evaluate the quality of candidate solutions. The goal is to maximize or minimize this fitness function, depending on the optimization problem.
  • Parallelizable: EAs are inherently parallelizable, making them suitable for high-performance computing environments and distributed systems.
  • Multi-objective Optimization: EAs can handle optimization problems with multiple conflicting objectives, enabling the search for solutions that represent trade-offs between different criteria.
  • Robustness: EAs are robust and suitable for complex, nonlinear, and multi-modal optimization problems where traditional methods may struggle.
  • Global Search: Due to their stochastic nature and population-based approach, EAs are effective at global search, seeking solutions across the entire search space rather than getting stuck in local optima.
  • Adaptation and Learning: EAs can adapt to changing environments and learn from previous generations, making them suitable for dynamic optimization problems.
  • Real-World Impact: EAs have demonstrated their effectiveness in solving real-world problems, such as vehicle routing, drug discovery, and financial portfolio optimization.
  • Hybridization: They can be combined with other optimization techniques or machine learning algorithms to enhance performance and address specific challenges.
  • Interpretability: Unlike some machine learning black-box models, EAs often produce solutions that are interpretable and can provide insights into the problem domain.
  • Research and Evolution: EAs themselves have evolved over time, leading to various variants and extensions, such as genetic algorithms, genetic programming, and differential evolution, tailored to different problem types.

Framework NameDescriptionWhen to Apply
Evolutionary Algorithms– Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are computational optimization techniques inspired by biological evolution and natural selection processes, suggesting that EAs can solve complex optimization problems by iteratively generating and refining candidate solutions through processes such as selection, crossover, mutation, and reproduction, mimicking the principles of variation, selection, and adaptation observed in biological evolution.When solving complex optimization problems or designing adaptive systems, to apply evolutionary algorithms by modeling the problem space, defining fitness functions, and implementing selection, crossover, and mutation operators to generate and evolve candidate solutions iteratively, enabling automated exploration of solution space, adaptation to changing conditions, and optimization of complex, nonlinear objectives across diverse domains and applications.
Genetic Algorithms– Genetic algorithms (GAs) are a subclass of evolutionary algorithms that use analogies to genetics and natural selection to search for optimal solutions to optimization and search problems, suggesting that GAs can efficiently explore large solution spaces, adapt to changing environments, and converge towards high-quality solutions by combining principles of selection, crossover, mutation, and reproduction to evolve populations of candidate solutions iteratively.When solving optimization problems or designing intelligent systems, to employ genetic algorithms by encoding candidate solutions as chromosomes, defining selection criteria and genetic operators, and iteratively evolving populations of solutions through selection, crossover, and mutation operations, enabling automated search and optimization of complex, multidimensional search spaces with diverse constraints and objectives.
Evolutionary Computing– Evolutionary computing encompasses a family of optimization and machine learning techniques inspired by biological evolution, including genetic algorithms, evolutionary strategies, genetic programming, and differential evolution, suggesting that evolutionary computing methods can address diverse optimization and search problems across domains such as engineering design, robotics, finance, and data mining, leveraging principles of variation, selection, and adaptation to drive automated learning and optimization processes.When tackling optimization or search problems with complex, uncertain, or dynamic characteristics, to explore evolutionary computing approaches by selecting suitable algorithms, defining problem representations and fitness functions, and implementing evolutionary operators and strategies tailored to the problem domain and objectives, enabling automated exploration, adaptation, and optimization of solutions in diverse application contexts and environments.
Evolutionary Programming– Evolutionary programming is a stochastic optimization technique that evolves candidate solutions through mutation and selection, suggesting that evolutionary programming can solve optimization problems by iteratively generating and evaluating candidate solutions, adapting search strategies based on problem characteristics and performance feedback, and converging towards high-quality solutions in solution spaces with complex, nonlinear, or uncertain objectives and constraints.When addressing optimization challenges or designing adaptive systems, to consider evolutionary programming techniques by defining problem representations, mutation operators, and selection mechanisms, and implementing iterative search processes that adaptively explore solution spaces, fostering automated learning, adaptation, and optimization of solutions in diverse problem domains and application contexts with complex, dynamic, or uncertain characteristics.
Cultural Algorithms– Cultural algorithms (CAs) extend evolutionary algorithms with cultural learning and knowledge sharing mechanisms, suggesting that CAs can enhance solution search and optimization processes by incorporating social learning, imitation, and cooperation among individuals within populations, enabling knowledge transfer, innovation, and collective problem-solving strategies that can improve solution quality, diversity, and robustness in complex, dynamic environments.When optimizing solutions or designing intelligent systems, to leverage cultural algorithms by integrating social learning and knowledge sharing mechanisms into evolutionary processes, fostering cooperation, imitation, and knowledge transfer among individuals within populations, and promoting innovation, diversity, and robustness in solution search and optimization processes, enabling more effective exploration and exploitation of solution spaces in dynamic, uncertain environments.
Differential Evolution– Differential evolution (DE) is a population-based stochastic optimization technique that evolves candidate solutions through processes of mutation, crossover, and selection, suggesting that DE can efficiently explore solution spaces, adapt to changing environments, and converge towards high-quality solutions in complex optimization problems with nonlinear, multimodal, or noisy objective functions and constraints.When solving optimization problems or conducting parameter tuning tasks, to employ differential evolution by defining problem representations, mutation and crossover operators, and selection strategies, and implementing iterative evolutionary processes that explore and refine candidate solutions, enabling automated search and optimization of complex, nonlinear objective functions in diverse problem domains and application contexts.
Evolutionary Robotics– Evolutionary robotics applies evolutionary algorithms to design and optimize robot controllers or morphologies, suggesting that evolutionary robotics can generate innovative, adaptive robot designs and behaviors by evolving populations of robots through processes of variation, selection, and adaptation, enabling automated synthesis of robots that can perform complex tasks, navigate uncertain environments, and adapt to changing conditions without human intervention.When designing robotic systems or autonomous agents, to explore evolutionary robotics approaches by defining robot representations, fitness criteria, and evolutionary operators, and implementing iterative evolutionary processes that generate and optimize robot designs and behaviors, enabling automated synthesis of robots that can exhibit adaptive, robust, and efficient behaviors in dynamic, uncertain environments and perform complex tasks with minimal human guidance or supervision.
Evolutionary Computation in Finance– Evolutionary computation techniques, including genetic algorithms, genetic programming, and evolutionary strategies, are applied to financial modeling, trading, and portfolio optimization tasks, suggesting that evolutionary computation can address challenges such as forecasting, risk management, and asset allocation by automatically generating, adapting, and optimizing trading strategies or investment portfolios based on historical data, market trends, and economic indicators.When conducting financial analysis or designing automated trading systems, to utilize evolutionary computation techniques by formulating trading objectives, defining fitness criteria and selection strategies, and implementing evolutionary processes that evolve and optimize trading strategies or investment portfolios, enabling automated decision-making and adaptation in dynamic, uncertain financial markets and enhancing investment performance, risk management, and portfolio diversification strategies.
Evolutionary Machine Learning– Evolutionary machine learning integrates evolutionary algorithms with machine learning techniques, suggesting that evolutionary machine learning can automatically generate, adapt, and optimize models or algorithms to solve classification, regression, clustering, or reinforcement learning tasks by evolving populations of candidate solutions through processes of variation, selection, and adaptation, enabling automated discovery of effective solutions in diverse application domains.When developing machine learning models or solving pattern recognition tasks, to consider evolutionary machine learning approaches by defining problem representations, fitness functions, and evolutionary operators, and implementing iterative evolutionary processes that evolve and optimize models or algorithms, enabling automated discovery of effective solutions, feature representations, or decision policies in complex, high-dimensional data spaces with diverse patterns, structures, or dynamics.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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