contrast-effect

Contrast Effect

The Contrast Effect refers to the impact of contrasting stimuli on perception and decision-making. By strategically using contrast in pricing, advertising, and negotiation, it enhances perception, influences decisions, and improves marketing. However, practitioners must be cautious of ethical concerns and contextual relevance to avoid overuse and confusion.

Characteristics of the Contrast Effect

The contrast effect is a cognitive phenomenon characterized by the influence of prior exposure or comparison on perception, perceptual distortion based on contrasting stimuli, and the impact of this cognitive bias on decision-making. Here are the key characteristics of the contrast effect:

  • Contextual Influence: The contrast effect occurs when prior exposure to or comparison with certain stimuli influences the perception of a subsequent stimulus. In other words, how something is perceived can be altered by what was experienced or observed just before it.
  • Perceptual Distortion: The contrast effect often leads to perceptual distortion, where the perception of an object or attribute is altered based on the presence of contrasting stimuli. This distortion can make an object appear more or less favorable in comparison.
  • Cognitive Bias: The contrast effect is a cognitive bias that can influence decision-making. When individuals are presented with contrasting options or information, they may make decisions that are influenced by the perceived differences between those options.

Use Cases of the Contrast Effect

The contrast effect is prevalent in various practical scenarios, influencing decision-making, marketing, and perception. Here are some use cases that illustrate its effects:

  • Pricing Strategies: Businesses often use the contrast effect in pricing strategies. By positioning a relatively expensive product next to a more expensive one, the former can appear more attractive and affordable, driving sales.
  • Advertising: Advertisers leverage the contrast effect by using visuals or messaging that highlight the benefits of a product in comparison to others. This helps products stand out and appear more appealing to consumers.
  • Negotiation: In negotiation, presenting contrasting proposals or offers can influence outcomes. One party may present a less favorable option initially, making a subsequent proposal seem more agreeable in comparison.

Benefits of the Contrast Effect

The contrast effect offers several potential benefits in perception, decision-making, and marketing:

  • Enhanced Perception: The contrast effect can make products, services, or attributes stand out by emphasizing their positive qualities in comparison to less favorable alternatives.
  • Decision Influence: When individuals are presented with contrasting alternatives, they may be more inclined to make choices that align with their perceived preferences, potentially leading to more informed decisions.
  • Marketing Impact: Leveraging the contrast effect can enhance the effectiveness of marketing efforts by making products or messages more memorable and appealing.

Challenges Posed by the Contrast Effect

However, the contrast effect also presents challenges and considerations:

  • Ethical Concerns: There are ethical concerns associated with the use of the contrast effect in marketing and decision-making. Excessive manipulation or deceptive practices can lead to negative perceptions and trust issues among consumers.
  • Overuse: Balancing the use of the contrast effect is essential to avoid overwhelming or confusing customers. Overuse or misuse of this phenomenon can lead to diminished effectiveness.
  • Contextual Relevance: To be effective, the contrast effect should be meaningful and relevant to the target audience. Failing to consider the context and preferences of the audience may lead to unintended consequences.

Examples of the Contrast Effect:

  • Product Packaging:
    • When designing product packaging, companies often use the contrast effect to make their products stand out on store shelves. For instance, a cereal brand might use vibrant colors and bold graphics to create a striking contrast with competing cereal boxes, increasing the likelihood that shoppers will notice and choose their product.
  • Restaurant Menus:
    • Many restaurants strategically employ the contrast effect on their menus. They may place high-margin or chef-recommended dishes next to lower-priced options or less profitable items. The visual contrast draws attention to these particular dishes, potentially influencing diners’ choices and increasing the restaurant’s overall revenue.
  • Sales Promotions:
    • Retailers use the contrast effect during sales promotions to create a sense of urgency and encourage purchases. For example, they might display the original price of an item crossed out in favor of a lower sale price in bold letters. This stark contrast between the two prices can make customers perceive the deal as more attractive and time-sensitive.
  • Advertising Campaigns:
    • Advertising campaigns frequently leverage the contrast effect to highlight the unique features or benefits of a product. For instance, an automobile commercial might use contrasting imagery of a rugged, off-road adventure followed by a smooth, luxurious highway drive to emphasize the versatility of the vehicle.
  • Real Estate Listings:
    • In real estate, listings often use the contrast effect to draw attention to certain property features. A listing might showcase a luxurious kitchen renovation against the backdrop of other rooms with more modest upgrades, creating a perception of added value.
  • Job Offers:
    • Employers may use the contrast effect in job offers by presenting multiple compensation packages. By placing a highly attractive package next to a less favorable one, they can influence candidates’ decisions to accept the more appealing offer.

Key Highlights of the Contrast Effect:

  • Contextual Influence: The contrast effect is rooted in the idea that people’s perception and judgment are influenced by prior exposure or comparison with contrasting stimuli.
  • Perceptual Distortion: It involves altering individuals’ perception of an object, idea, or offer based on the presence of contrasting elements or options.
  • Cognitive Bias: The contrast effect taps into cognitive biases and heuristics, subtly influencing decision-making by presenting contrasting choices or information.
  • Marketing Strategy: Businesses strategically use the contrast effect in various aspects of marketing, including pricing, advertising, packaging, and promotions, to enhance their competitive advantage and drive customer behavior.
  • Ethical Considerations: Practitioners should be mindful of ethical concerns related to the use of the contrast effect, ensuring that it does not lead to manipulation or deceptive practices in marketing.
  • Contextual Relevance: The effectiveness of the contrast effect depends on its meaningfulness and relevance to the audience. Overuse or irrelevant use of contrast can lead to confusion or skepticism among consumers.

FrameworkDescriptionWhen to Apply
Anchoring EffectAnchoring Effect: The anchoring effect is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals rely too heavily on initial information (the “anchor”) when making judgments or decisions. Even when subsequent information is provided, the initial anchor can exert a disproportionate influence on final judgments or evaluations. The anchoring effect can lead individuals to insufficiently adjust their judgments away from the initial anchor, resulting in biases in decision-making, estimation, or negotiation. Recognizing the anchoring effect is essential for making more accurate and informed decisions by critically evaluating the relevance and reliability of initial information and adjusting judgments accordingly.Recognizing and mitigating the anchoring effect by consciously considering alternative information and avoiding over-reliance on initial anchors, thus promoting more accurate and unbiased decision-making in negotiation, pricing, or estimation contexts where initial information can influence subsequent judgments and evaluations.
Primacy and Recency EffectsPrimacy and Recency Effects: The primacy and recency effects are phenomena observed in memory and perception, where individuals are more likely to remember and give greater weight to information presented at the beginning (primacy effect) or end (recency effect) of a sequence. The primacy effect occurs because information presented first has more time to be encoded into long-term memory, while the recency effect occurs because information presented last is still accessible in short-term memory. These effects can influence impressions, judgments, and decision-making by biasing individuals’ perceptions of information. Recognizing the primacy and recency effects can help individuals structure communication and presentations to maximize the impact of key messages and minimize the influence of order effects.Structuring communication and presentations to optimize the impact of key messages and minimize the influence of order effects, by strategically arranging information and considering the sequence of presentation, thus enhancing comprehension and retention in educational, marketing, or persuasive communication contexts where memory effects can influence perceptions and decisions.
Framing EffectFraming Effect: The framing effect is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals’ decisions or judgments are influenced by the way information is presented or framed. Different framings of the same information can evoke different perceptions, preferences, and decisions, even when the underlying content remains unchanged. The framing effect highlights the importance of context and presentation in shaping individuals’ interpretations and choices. Recognizing the framing effect is crucial for crafting persuasive messages, policies, or arguments that effectively influence attitudes and behaviors by framing information in ways that resonate with target audiences and elicit desired responses.Crafting persuasive messages and policies that effectively influence attitudes and behaviors by framing information in ways that resonate with target audiences and elicit desired responses, thus leveraging the framing effect in marketing, communication, or advocacy efforts where the presentation of information can shape perceptions and decisions.
Contrast PrincipleContrast Principle: The contrast principle is a perceptual phenomenon that occurs when individuals compare two or more stimuli presented in close proximity, leading to exaggerated differences between them. The contrast principle influences judgments and perceptions by magnifying the perceived differences between stimuli, making the second stimulus appear more extreme in comparison to the first. This effect can occur in various contexts, such as pricing, evaluation, or social comparison, where individuals assess the relative qualities or attributes of stimuli. Recognizing the contrast principle is essential for minimizing bias in judgments and decisions by critically evaluating stimuli in isolation and considering their absolute qualities rather than relative differences.Minimizing bias in judgments and decisions by critically evaluating stimuli in isolation and considering their absolute qualities rather than relative differences, thus reducing the influence of the contrast principle in pricing, evaluation, or social comparison contexts where perceptual biases can distort perceptions and decisions.
Perceptual ContrastPerceptual Contrast: Perceptual contrast refers to the phenomenon where individuals’ perceptions of an object or attribute are influenced by the context in which it is presented. When two stimuli are presented sequentially or in close proximity, individuals perceive the second stimulus as more different from the first than it actually is. Perceptual contrast can lead to overestimation or underestimation of differences between stimuli, affecting judgments and decisions in various domains. Recognizing perceptual contrast is crucial for making accurate assessments and avoiding biases in perception by considering stimuli in isolation and controlling for contextual influences.Making accurate assessments and avoiding biases in perception by considering stimuli in isolation and controlling for contextual influences, thus minimizing the impact of perceptual contrast in evaluation, comparison, or decision-making contexts where contextual factors can distort perceptions and judgments.
Social Comparison TheorySocial Comparison Theory: Social comparison theory posits that individuals evaluate themselves and their abilities by comparing themselves to others. People engage in social comparison to assess their attributes, beliefs, or behaviors relative to those of similar others, seeking information to evaluate themselves and make judgments about their abilities and qualities. Social comparison can influence self-esteem, motivation, and behavior, leading individuals to strive for improvement or maintain a positive self-image. The direction and outcomes of social comparison processes depend on various factors, including the relevance and similarity of comparison targets, the salience of attributes being compared, and the presence of social norms or standards.Understanding social comparison processes to assess attributes, beliefs, or behaviors relative to others and make judgments about abilities and qualities, thus influencing self-esteem, motivation, and behavior in personal, social, or organizational contexts where social comparison is salient for evaluating oneself and others and shaping attitudes and behaviors.
Context EffectsContext Effects: Context effects refer to the influence of environmental or situational factors on individuals’ perceptions, judgments, and decisions. The context in which information is presented or decisions are made can significantly impact individuals’ interpretations and choices, leading to variations in behavior and preferences. Context effects can manifest in various forms, including priming effects, order effects, and environmental cues, and can influence consumer behavior, decision-making, and memory processes. Recognizing context effects is essential for understanding how environmental factors shape perceptions and decisions and for designing interventions or communication strategies that leverage contextual cues to influence behavior.Designing interventions or communication strategies that leverage contextual cues to influence behavior, thus recognizing and harnessing the influence of environmental factors on perceptions and decisions in consumer behavior, decision-making, or memory processes where context effects can shape preferences and choices.
Cognitive Dissonance TheoryCognitive Dissonance Theory: Cognitive dissonance theory posits that individuals experience psychological discomfort when their beliefs, attitudes, or behaviors are inconsistent with one another. To reduce this discomfort, individuals may engage in cognitive or behavioral adjustments, such as changing their beliefs, justifying their actions, or seeking out information that supports their existing views. Cognitive dissonance can arise from inconsistencies between attitudes and behaviors, discrepancies between beliefs and evidence, or conflicts between personal values and external pressures. Recognizing cognitive dissonance is essential for understanding how individuals manage inconsistencies and rationalize their decisions and for promoting behavior change or attitude alignment in alignment with desired outcomes.Promoting behavior change or attitude alignment by recognizing cognitive dissonance and addressing inconsistencies between beliefs, attitudes, or behaviors, thus fostering self-awareness and facilitating adaptive responses in personal development, persuasion, or behavior change interventions where cognitive dissonance can influence decision-making and behavior.
Selective PerceptionSelective Perception: Selective perception refers to the tendency of individuals to selectively attend to, interpret, or remember information in ways that confirm their existing beliefs, attitudes, or expectations. People filter incoming information through their pre-existing mental frameworks and biases, focusing on information that aligns with their views while disregarding or minimizing contradictory evidence. Selective perception can lead to biased interpretations, judgments, and memories, reinforcing individuals’ existing beliefs and attitudes. Recognizing selective perception is essential for promoting critical thinking and open-mindedness by encouraging individuals to consider alternative perspectives and actively seek out diverse information to counteract biases and enhance decision-making accuracy.Promoting critical thinking and open-mindedness by recognizing selective perception and encouraging individuals to consider alternative perspectives and diverse information, thus mitigating biases and enhancing decision-making accuracy in learning, problem-solving, or evaluation contexts where selective perception can influence interpretations and judgments.
Expectation BiasExpectation Bias: Expectation bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals’ expectations or prior beliefs influence their perceptions, judgments, or interpretations of subsequent information. Individuals tend to interpret ambiguous or incomplete information in ways that confirm their existing beliefs or expectations, leading to biased assessments or conclusions. Expectation bias can affect various domains, including decision-making, evaluation, and interpersonal perceptions, by shaping individuals’ interpretations of information and their responses to new stimuli. Recognizing expectation bias is essential for promoting objectivity and accuracy in decision-making by critically evaluating the influence of prior expectations and considering alternative interpretations of information.Promoting objectivity and accuracy in decision-making by recognizing expectation bias and critically evaluating the influence of prior expectations on interpretations and judgments, thus mitigating biases and enhancing decision-making accuracy in evaluation, problem-solving, or interpersonal contexts where expectation bias can lead to misconceptions and errors.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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