drive-reduction-theory

Drive Reduction Theory

Drive Reduction Theory posits that motivation is driven by the need to satisfy physiological needs. When individuals experience imbalances or deficiencies, they are motivated to take actions to reduce these drives and achieve internal balance (homeostasis). Examples include hunger, thirst, and fatigue, which lead individuals to eat, drink, and rest, respectively. While the theory explains basic biological motivations, it may not fully account for complex human behaviors influenced by external factors and learned needs.

Key Principles of Drive Reduction Theory

  • Drives: Drive Reduction Theory posits that individuals are motivated by internal states of tension or arousal called “drives.” These drives arise from physiological needs, such as hunger, thirst, or the need for sleep, as well as psychological needs like the desire for social interaction or achievement.
  • Homeostasis: The primary goal of drive reduction is to achieve and maintain a state of homeostasis, which is a state of internal balance or equilibrium. Homeostasis is achieved by reducing the level of arousal or tension associated with a specific drive.
  • Drive-Reduction Cycle: Drive Reduction Theory outlines a cycle involving the following stages:
    • Need: The individual experiences a physiological or psychological need (e.g., hunger).
    • Drive: The need creates a state of tension or arousal (e.g., hunger drive).
    • Behavior: The individual engages in behavior aimed at reducing the drive (e.g., eating).
    • Goal: The behavior results in drive reduction and the achievement of homeostasis (e.g., satisfaction of hunger).

Underlying Mechanisms of Drive Reduction Theory

  • Primary vs. Secondary Drives: Drive Reduction Theory distinguishes between primary drives (biological needs like hunger and thirst) and secondary drives (learned or acquired needs like the desire for money or social approval).
  • Drive Strength: The strength of a drive is determined by factors such as the intensity of the need and the individual’s previous experience in satisfying that need.
  • Incentive: The theory incorporates the concept of incentives, which are external factors or rewards that can influence an individual’s motivation. Incentives can enhance or diminish the drive-reduction process.

Real-World Applications of Drive Reduction Theory

  • Health and Well-Being: Drive Reduction Theory is relevant in the field of health and wellness. It explains how physiological drives, such as hunger and thirst, motivate individuals to take actions that maintain their well-being.
  • Consumer Behavior: Marketers and advertisers leverage Drive Reduction Theory by associating products with the satisfaction of drives. For example, food advertisements often highlight how a particular product can satisfy hunger.
  • Social Interaction: The theory can be applied to understanding the role of social interaction in satisfying psychological drives. Human beings have a fundamental need for social connection, which can motivate behaviors aimed at reducing social isolation.

Criticisms and Limitations of Drive Reduction Theory

  • Limited Scope: One criticism of the theory is that it primarily focuses on physiological needs and may not adequately explain the motivation behind complex, higher-order behaviors like creativity, curiosity, or self-actualization.
  • Inconclusive Empirical Evidence: Some researchers argue that empirical evidence supporting Drive Reduction Theory is inconclusive. Human behavior is influenced by a multitude of factors, making it challenging to isolate the role of drives alone.
  • Lack of Explanation for Excess Behaviors: The theory may not account for behaviors that lead to an excess of satisfaction, such as overeating. It mainly focuses on the reduction of drives to homeostatic levels.

Extensions and Modern Interpretations

  • Arousal Theory: Arousal theory, proposed by psychologists like Robert Yerkes and John D. Dodson, builds on Drive Reduction Theory by suggesting that individuals seek an optimal level of arousal. It explains why people engage in activities that may increase, rather than reduce, arousal (e.g., extreme sports).
  • Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs: Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs expands on Drive Reduction Theory by incorporating psychological needs, such as self-esteem and self-actualization, in addition to physiological needs. It suggests that people are motivated by different levels of needs, with self-actualization representing the highest level.
  • Self-Determination Theory: Self-Determination Theory, developed by Deci and Ryan, emphasizes the role of autonomy, competence, and relatedness in motivation. It suggests that individuals are driven by the need for autonomy and intrinsic motivation rather than solely by drive reduction.

Key Highlights

  • Drive Reduction Theory proposes that motivation stems from the need to satisfy physiological needs. When individuals experience imbalances or deficiencies, they are motivated to take actions to reduce these drives and achieve internal balance (homeostasis).
  • Characteristics of the theory include motivation rooted in physiological needs and drives, drive reduction maintaining internal balance through actions, and drives being classified as primary (biological needs) or secondary (learned needs).
  • Use cases of drive reduction theory involve situations like hunger driving individuals to eat and satisfy their physiological need, thirst motivating individuals to drink and maintain water balance, and fatigue prompting individuals to rest and restore energy.
  • Benefits of the theory encompass its role in ensuring survival by motivating actions to satisfy basic needs, encouraging adaptive behaviors that maintain homeostasis, and providing a clear goal (drive reduction) for motivated behavior.
  • Challenges related to the theory involve the complex nature of human motivation, which is influenced by multiple factors, not just physiological needs. Motivation also varies among individuals based on experiences and learning, and the theory may not fully explain motivation driven by external rewards.
  • Examples of drive reduction theory include individuals feeling hungry and motivated to eat to reduce their hunger drive, feeling thirsty and motivated to drink to alleviate thirst, and feeling fatigued and motivated to rest to reduce their fatigue drive.

FrameworkDescriptionWhen to Apply
Homeostasis– Homeostasis is the body’s natural tendency to maintain internal stability and equilibrium through physiological processes. Drive Reduction Theory posits that motivation arises from the need to reduce physiological imbalances or drives, such as hunger, thirst, or fatigue, to restore homeostatic balance. When an organism experiences a physiological deficit, it is motivated to engage in behaviors that alleviate the drive and restore equilibrium. Homeostasis plays a central role in regulating bodily functions and motivating adaptive behaviors to meet biological needs.– Analyzing behavior and motivation in individuals or organisms to understand how homeostatic mechanisms regulate physiological states and drive reduction, by identifying imbalances or deficits in bodily needs and observing corresponding behaviors aimed at restoring equilibrium, thus providing insights into the role of homeostasis in motivating behavior and maintaining biological stability in various contexts, from basic survival needs to more complex regulatory processes in organisms.
Drive States– Drive States are physiological conditions or deficits that motivate behavior to alleviate discomfort or restore equilibrium. Drive Reduction Theory proposes that organisms are motivated to reduce or eliminate these aversive states by engaging in behaviors that satisfy biological needs and restore homeostasis. Examples of drive states include hunger, thirst, sleepiness, and pain, which prompt individuals to seek out food, water, rest, or relief from discomfort to alleviate the drive and achieve a state of physiological balance. Drive states serve as powerful motivators for goal-directed behavior and survival.– Observing and assessing drive states in individuals or organisms to understand how physiological deficits or discomforts motivate behavior and drive reduction, by monitoring changes in bodily functions and behaviors associated with specific drive states, and identifying environmental cues or stimuli that trigger motivational responses aimed at satisfying biological needs and restoring homeostasis, thus informing interventions or strategies to address motivational deficits or promote adaptive behaviors in situations where drive states may influence behavior or decision-making.
Motivational Conflict– Motivational Conflict arises when individuals experience competing drives or goals that require conflicting behavioral responses. Drive Reduction Theory suggests that motivational conflict occurs when the satisfaction of one drive interferes with the satisfaction of another, leading to tension or indecision. There are three main types of motivational conflict: approach-approach, avoidance-avoidance, and approach-avoidance, each involving different combinations of drives or goals that elicit distinct motivational responses and decision-making processes. Understanding motivational conflict is essential for predicting behavior and resolving goal-related dilemmas.– Identifying and analyzing instances of motivational conflict in individuals or organisms to understand how competing drives or goals influence behavior and decision-making, by examining the nature of conflicting motives, the perceived costs and benefits of different courses of action, and the strategies used to resolve or cope with motivational dilemmas, thus providing insights into the complexity of motivational processes and the factors that influence goal pursuit and decision outcomes in situations where conflicting drives or goals may generate tension or uncertainty.
Drive Strength– Drive Strength refers to the intensity or arousal level of a drive state, which influences the magnitude of motivational responses and behavioral activation. Drive Reduction Theory suggests that the strength of a drive determines the urgency and priority of goal-directed behavior aimed at reducing the drive and restoring homeostasis. High drive strength increases arousal and motivates vigorous action to satisfy biological needs, whereas low drive strength may result in lethargy or apathy. Understanding drive strength is essential for predicting the likelihood and intensity of motivated behavior in response to physiological needs.– Assessing drive strength in individuals or organisms to gauge the intensity of motivational responses and behavioral activation associated with specific drive states, by measuring physiological indicators of arousal or stress, observing behavioral manifestations of drive-related behaviors, and eliciting subjective reports of motivational states and subjective experiences of drive strength, thus providing insights into the factors that influence the urgency and vigor of goal-directed behavior aimed at reducing physiological deficits or discomforts in various contexts where drive strength may vary.
Incentive Salience– Incentive Salience refers to the motivational value or attractiveness of a stimulus or reward that elicits approach behavior and reinforces goal-directed actions. Drive Reduction Theory suggests that incentives acquire salience or motivational significance based on their association with drive reduction and the satisfaction of biological needs. Incentive salience enhances the attractiveness and reinforcing properties of stimuli or rewards, promoting approach behavior and goal pursuit. Understanding incentive salience is essential for predicting the effectiveness of incentives in motivating behavior and shaping decision-making processes.– Evaluating the incentive salience of stimuli or rewards in individuals or organisms to assess their motivational potency and impact on behavior, by manipulating the availability or desirability of incentives, observing behavioral responses to incentive cues or rewards, and measuring subjective ratings of incentive attractiveness or motivational value, thus identifying factors that enhance or diminish the motivational significance of incentives and informing incentive-based interventions or strategies to promote goal-directed behavior or behavior change in situations where incentives play a motivational role.
Reward Circuitry– Reward Circuitry refers to neural pathways and brain regions involved in processing reward-related stimuli and regulating motivational responses and behavior. Drive Reduction Theory suggests that rewards activate the brain’s reward circuitry, releasing neurotransmitters such as dopamine that reinforce goal-directed behavior and drive reduction. The mesolimbic dopamine system, including the nucleus accumbens and ventral tegmental area, plays a central role in mediating the hedonic and motivational effects of rewards. Understanding reward circuitry is essential for elucidating the neurobiological mechanisms underlying motivation and addiction.– Investigating reward circuitry and neural responses to rewards in individuals or organisms to understand how reward-related stimuli influence motivational processes and behavior, by using neuroimaging techniques to measure brain activity in response to reward cues or outcomes, manipulating reward contingencies or incentive structures to modulate motivational responses, and studying individuals with neurobiological or psychiatric conditions that affect reward processing, thus elucidating the neural basis of motivation and informing interventions or treatments for motivational disorders or addictive behaviors that involve dysregulation of reward circuitry.
Drive Theory of Learning– The Drive Theory of Learning posits that motivation influences learning and behavior by directing attention, energizing effort, and reinforcing responses through drive reduction. Drive Reduction Theory suggests that learning occurs through the reinforcement of behaviors that lead to the reduction of aversive drive states or the satisfaction of biological needs. Motivated behaviors are more likely to be learned and repeated when they are followed by drive reduction or positive reinforcement. Understanding the drive theory of learning is essential for optimizing educational strategies and promoting adaptive behavior change.– Applying the drive theory of learning to educational settings or behavior change interventions to enhance motivation and learning outcomes, by structuring learning tasks or activities to align with individuals’ motivational needs and interests, providing opportunities for goal-directed behavior and reinforcement through drive reduction or positive incentives, and scaffolding learning experiences to support skill acquisition and mastery, thus promoting engagement, persistence, and achievement in learners or individuals seeking to change behavior or acquire new skills in contexts where motivation plays a critical role in learning and performance.
Need Hierarchy Theory– Need Hierarchy Theory, proposed by Abraham Maslow, suggests that human motivation is organized hierarchically, with basic physiological needs at the bottom and higher-order needs such as belongingness, esteem, and self-actualization at the top. Drive Reduction Theory aligns with the concept of lower-level needs driving behavior to satisfy biological deficits and restore homeostasis. Once basic needs are met, individuals are motivated to pursue higher-level needs related to social belonging, achievement, and personal growth. Understanding need hierarchy theory is essential for addressing diverse motivational needs and promoting holistic well-being.– Applying need hierarchy theory to understand motivational dynamics and behavior in individuals or groups, by assessing the fulfillment of basic physiological needs and higher-order psychological needs, identifying areas of need deficiency or imbalance, and designing interventions or strategies to address unmet needs and promote self-actualization and well-being, thus fostering a holistic approach to motivation and fulfillment in personal, organizational, or community contexts where diverse needs may influence behavior and decision-making.
Drive Reduction in Addiction– Drive Reduction Theory provides insights into the motivational mechanisms underlying addiction and substance abuse. Addictive substances such as drugs or alcohol hijack the brain’s reward circuitry, leading to compulsive drug-seeking behavior aimed at alleviating cravings and restoring euphoric states. Chronic drug use disrupts normal neurotransmitter function and homeostatic processes, perpetuating the cycle of addiction. Understanding drive reduction in addiction is essential for developing effective interventions and treatments to address substance use disorders and promote recovery.– Applying drive reduction theory to understand the motivational dynamics of addiction and substance abuse, by examining the role of drive states, reward circuitry, and incentive salience in drug-seeking behavior and compulsive drug use, identifying individual vulnerabilities or risk factors for addiction, and designing personalized interventions or treatment approaches that target underlying motivational processes and promote abstinence, relapse prevention, and long-term recovery, thus addressing the complex interplay of biological, psychological, and environmental factors that contribute to addictive behaviors and substance use disorders.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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