Rasch Model

Rasch Model

The Rasch Model is a fundamental concept in the field of Item Response Theory (IRT), which is used to analyze and measure latent traits or abilities of individuals. Developed by Georg Rasch in the early 20th century, the Rasch Model has wide-ranging applications in fields such as education, psychology, healthcare, and social sciences.

The Rasch Model is a powerful tool for measuring latent traits or abilities across various fields, providing a structured framework for item calibration and person measurement. Its applications range from educational assessment to healthcare and psychological research, offering precise and objective measurement solutions. While challenges exist, the Rasch Model remains a cornerstone of Item Response Theory and continues to contribute significantly to research, assessment, and measurement practices.

The Foundations of the Rasch Model

Understanding the Rasch Model requires knowledge of several foundational concepts and principles:

  1. Latent Traits: The Rasch Model is built on the idea that individuals possess latent traits or abilities that cannot be directly observed but can be measured indirectly through their responses to items or questions.
  2. Item Difficulty and Person Ability: The model assumes that both items and individuals can be located on a common scale, with items having varying degrees of difficulty and individuals having varying levels of the latent trait being measured.
  3. Probabilistic Model: The Rasch Model is probabilistic in nature, expressing the probability of a person with a particular ability level correctly responding to an item with a certain difficulty level.
  4. One-Dimensional Model: It is typically applied to unidimensional data, where the latent trait is assumed to be a single dimension underlying the observed responses.

The Core Principles of the Rasch Model

To effectively understand and apply the Rasch Model, it’s essential to adhere to its core principles:

  1. Model Assumptions: Recognize and adhere to the key assumptions of the Rasch Model, including the unidimensionality of the latent trait and the probabilistic nature of responses.
  2. Item Calibration: Calibrate items on a common scale to determine their difficulty levels in relation to the latent trait.
  3. Person Measurement: Estimate person measures (abilities) on the same scale as item calibrations, allowing for meaningful comparisons between individuals and items.
  4. Model Fit: Assess the fit of data to the Rasch Model to determine how well the model describes the observed responses.

The Process of Implementing the Rasch Model

Implementing the Rasch Model involves several key steps:

1. Data Collection and Preparation

  • Item Development: Create a set of items or questions designed to measure the latent trait of interest.
  • Response Data: Collect response data from individuals who have completed the items.

2. Model Specification

  • Item Calibration: Calibrate the items using item response theory software, such as Rasch analysis software or dedicated IRT packages.
  • Parameter Estimation: Estimate the parameters of the Rasch Model, including item difficulties and person abilities.

3. Model Evaluation

  • Model Fit: Assess the goodness of fit of the data to the Rasch Model, using fit statistics like the Infit and Outfit indices.
  • Item Fit: Examine individual item fit statistics to identify problematic items that may not conform to the model.

4. Interpretation and Reporting

  • Person Measures: Report person measures, which represent individuals’ positions on the latent trait scale.
  • Item Difficulty: Present item difficulties, indicating how easy or difficult each item is relative to the latent trait.

5. Applications

  • Educational Assessment: Use the Rasch Model in educational settings to measure student abilities and evaluate the quality of test items.
  • Healthcare: Apply the model in healthcare to assess patient abilities or health-related quality of life.
  • Psychological Research: Utilize the Rasch Model to measure psychological constructs and assess the effectiveness of psychological interventions.

Practical Applications of the Rasch Model

The Rasch Model finds applications in various fields:

1. Educational Assessment

  • Test Development: Develop and refine tests and assessments for educational purposes, ensuring that items effectively measure student abilities.
  • Item Banking: Create item banks for adaptive testing, allowing for the efficient measurement of student abilities.

2. Healthcare

  • Health Surveys: Develop and analyze health-related surveys to assess patients’ health status or quality of life.
  • Clinical Assessments: Measure patient abilities or symptoms for diagnostic and treatment purposes.

3. Social Sciences

  • Psychological Constructs: Measure latent psychological constructs such as self-esteem, motivation, or personality traits.
  • Social Surveys: Analyze responses to social surveys to assess attitudes, beliefs, or behaviors.

The Role of the Rasch Model in Research

The Rasch Model plays several critical roles in research:

  • Measurement Precision: It provides a framework for precise measurement of latent traits, reducing measurement error and increasing the accuracy of assessments.
  • Item Analysis: Researchers can analyze item difficulties and discrimination parameters to identify items that effectively discriminate between individuals of different ability levels.
  • Comparative Studies: The Rasch Model allows for meaningful comparisons between individuals or groups based on their person measures.
  • Scale Development: It facilitates the development of valid and reliable measurement scales for various domains.

Advantages and Benefits

The Rasch Model offers several advantages and benefits:

  1. Objective Measurement: It provides an objective and data-driven approach to measuring latent traits.
  2. Comparability: Person measures and item calibrations are on a common scale, enabling direct comparisons.
  3. Model Fit Assessment: Researchers can assess how well the model describes the observed data, increasing the validity of measurements.
  4. Flexible Applications: The Rasch Model can be applied to various fields and domains.

Criticisms and Challenges

The Rasch Model is not without criticisms and challenges:

  1. Unidimensionality Assumption: The assumption of a single underlying dimension may not hold in all cases, limiting the model’s applicability.
  2. Complexity: Implementing the Rasch Model requires specialized software and expertise in IRT.
  3. Data Requirements: Adequate sample sizes and high-quality response data are necessary for reliable parameter estimation.
  4. Item Calibration: Accurate item calibration is essential, and calibration errors can impact measurement validity.

Conclusion

The Rasch Model is a powerful tool for measuring latent traits or abilities across various fields, providing a structured framework for item calibration and person measurement. Its applications range from educational assessment to healthcare and psychological research, offering precise and objective measurement solutions. While challenges exist, the Rasch Model remains a cornerstone of Item Response Theory and continues to contribute significantly to research, assessment, and measurement practices.

Key Highlights of the Rasch Model:

  • Foundations:
    • Developed by Georg Rasch for analyzing latent traits or abilities.
    • Based on the idea of latent traits and item difficulty.
    • Utilizes a probabilistic model and assumes unidimensionality.
  • Core Principles:
    • Adherence to model assumptions including unidimensionality and probabilistic responses.
    • Calibration of items on a common scale and estimation of person measures.
    • Evaluation of model fit to observed data.
  • Implementation Process:
    • Data collection and item development.
    • Model specification and parameter estimation.
    • Evaluation of model fit and item performance.
    • Interpretation of results and reporting.
    • Applications in educational assessment, healthcare, and social sciences.
  • Practical Applications:
    • Educational Assessment: Test development and item banking.
    • Healthcare: Health surveys and clinical assessments.
    • Social Sciences: Measurement of psychological constructs and social surveys.
  • Role in Research:
    • Provides precise measurement of latent traits and allows for comparative studies.
    • Facilitates item analysis and scale development.
    • Increases measurement validity through model fit assessment.
  • Advantages:
    • Objective measurement with comparability across items and individuals.
    • Validity assessment through model fit evaluation.
    • Flexible applications across various fields.
  • Criticisms and Challenges:
    • Unidimensionality assumption may not always hold.
    • Complexity in implementation and data requirements.
    • Importance of accurate item calibration and potential for errors.
  • Conclusion:
    • The Rasch Model offers a structured framework for measuring latent traits with applications in diverse fields.
    • Despite challenges, it remains a cornerstone of Item Response Theory, contributing significantly to research and assessment practices.

Related ConceptsDescriptionWhen to Apply
Item Response TheoryStatistical framework used to analyze the relationship between individuals’ responses to test items and their underlying latent traits or abilities, where the probability of a correct response is modeled as a function of the person’s trait level and the item’s difficulty, providing insights into test performance and item characteristics.Apply in educational assessment, psychological testing, or medical evaluations to develop and evaluate tests or questionnaires that measure latent traits, by modeling the relationship between item responses and trait levels using item response theory models like the Rasch Model, enabling the estimation of individuals’ abilities or attitudes, the calibration of test items, and the evaluation of test validity and reliability.
Latent Trait ModelingStatistical approach used to estimate individuals’ unobservable or latent traits, characteristics, or constructs based on observed indicators or manifest variables, where latent trait models are employed to quantify and analyze underlying dimensions or structures in data, providing a framework for measuring and understanding complex phenomena.Apply in research fields where latent traits or constructs are of interest, such as psychology, education, or sociology, by using latent trait models like the Rasch Model to estimate individuals’ latent traits from observable indicators or responses, uncover underlying structures or dimensions in data, and investigate relationships between latent traits and other variables of interest, facilitating the measurement and analysis of unobservable phenomena.
Measurement TheoryBranch of applied mathematics and statistics concerned with the development, evaluation, and interpretation of measurement instruments, scales, or assessments, where measurement theory provides a conceptual framework for quantifying and evaluating the reliability, validity, and accuracy of measurement procedures and instruments, ensuring the meaningfulness and utility of measurement results.Apply in various fields where measurement is critical, such as education, psychology, or health sciences, to design, validate, or evaluate measurement instruments, scales, or assessments, by applying measurement theory principles to assess the reliability, validity, and precision of measurement procedures, ensuring that measurements accurately and consistently capture the intended constructs or attributes of interest, facilitating sound measurement practices and meaningful interpretation of measurement results.
PsychometricsInterdisciplinary field concerned with the theory and techniques of psychological measurement, where psychometric methods are used to develop, validate, and evaluate measurement instruments, tests, or assessments, ensuring their reliability, validity, and fairness, and facilitating the quantification and analysis of psychological attributes, traits, or behaviors.Apply in psychological research, educational assessment, or clinical practice to measure and assess individuals’ cognitive abilities, personality traits, or psychological states, by using psychometric methods like the Rasch Model to develop, validate, or administer tests or assessments, ensuring their reliability, validity, and sensitivity to individual differences, and facilitating the measurement and interpretation of psychological constructs or phenomena in diverse populations or contexts.
Test EquatingStatistical procedure used to establish equivalences between scores obtained on different forms or versions of a test, where test equating methods are employed to adjust or standardize test scores across different administrations, forms, or testing conditions, ensuring comparability and fairness in score interpretations and decisions.Apply in educational testing, psychometric research, or large-scale assessments to ensure fairness and consistency in score interpretations across different test forms, administrations, or populations, by using test equating methods like the Rasch Model to establish equivalences between test scores, adjust for differences in difficulty or test content, and link scores obtained on different test versions to a common scale, enabling valid and reliable comparisons of individuals’ performance or abilities over time or across groups.
Scale ConstructionProcess of developing, refining, and validating measurement scales or instruments to assess specific constructs, variables, or attributes of interest, where scale construction involves selecting or generating items, assessing their reliability and validity, and refining the scale based on empirical evidence and psychometric analyses.Apply in research fields where measurement scales or instruments are needed to assess individuals’ attitudes, behaviors, or characteristics, by following systematic procedures for scale construction, such as item selection, scale development, and psychometric validation, using methods like the Rasch Model to evaluate the internal consistency, dimensionality, and construct validity of the scale, ensuring that the scale items accurately and reliably measure the intended constructs or attributes, facilitating valid and meaningful interpretations of scale scores.
Differential Item FunctioningStatistical phenomenon where test items function differently for different groups of individuals, even after controlling for overall ability levels, where differential item functioning may indicate biases, unfairness, or measurement invariance across groups, highlighting the importance of examining item performance across diverse populations.Apply in educational testing, survey research, or clinical assessments to assess the fairness and validity of test items or assessment instruments across different demographic groups, by using methods like the Rasch Model to detect and quantify differential item functioning, identify items that show differential performance or measurement bias across groups, and evaluate the impact of group differences on test scores or assessment outcomes, ensuring fairness, equity, and validity in measurement practices.
Person Fit StatisticsIndices or measures used to assess the fit between individuals’ responses and the expected response patterns predicted by measurement models, where person fit statistics are employed to identify individuals whose response patterns deviate significantly from model expectations, indicating potential response errors, misfit, or aberrant behavior.Apply in psychometric research, educational testing, or clinical assessments to evaluate the quality of individuals’ responses to test items or assessment instruments, by using person fit statistics derived from models like the Rasch Model to assess the consistency, accuracy, or reliability of individuals’ responses, identify response patterns that deviate from model expectations, and detect potential response errors, aberrant behavior, or invalid responses, facilitating the identification of individuals who may need additional support, remediation, or further evaluation.
Rasch AnalysisItem response theory model used to analyze categorical data, such as responses to test items or survey questions, where the Rasch Model estimates individuals’ latent traits or abilities and item parameters simultaneously, providing a probabilistic framework for modeling the relationship between individuals’ responses and the underlying trait levels, and evaluating the fit of data to the model.Apply in situations where categorical data are collected, such as educational testing, psychological assessments, or health outcome measurements, by using Rasch analysis to model the relationship between individuals’ responses and latent traits, estimate individuals’ trait levels or abilities, calibrate item difficulty parameters, assess the fit of data to the Rasch Model, and evaluate the reliability, validity, and fairness of measurement instruments or assessments, facilitating the development, validation, and interpretation of measurement instruments or assessments in diverse contexts.
Rating Scale AnalysisTechnique used to analyze and evaluate the psychometric properties of rating scales or response formats used in surveys, assessments, or evaluations, where rating scale analysis examines the functioning of individual scale categories, assesses category thresholds, and evaluates the reliability and validity of the rating scale as a measurement instrument.Apply in survey research, educational assessment, or clinical evaluations to assess the quality of rating scales or response formats used to measure individuals’ attitudes, behaviors, or opinions, by conducting rating scale analysis to examine the discrimination, reliability, and validity of individual scale categories, evaluate the appropriateness of category thresholds, and refine the rating scale to enhance its psychometric properties and measurement precision, ensuring the validity and reliability of measurement instruments or assessments.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: BiasesBounded RationalityMandela EffectDunning-Kruger EffectLindy EffectCrowding Out EffectBandwagon Effect.

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