false-consensus-effect

False Consensus Effect

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The False Consensus Effect is a cognitive bias in which individuals tend to overestimate the extent to which others share their beliefs and attitudes. Factors like self-projection and confirmation bias contribute to this bias, leading to implications such as miscommunication and challenges in conflict resolution. Mitigation strategies involve active listening, promoting diverse opinions, and recognizing bias to foster better understanding and decision-making.

Understanding the False Consensus Effect:

What is the False Consensus Effect?

The False Consensus Effect is a cognitive bias in which individuals tend to overestimate the extent to which their own beliefs, preferences, or behaviors are shared by others. It leads people to assume that their perspectives are more common and representative than they actually are. This bias can affect various aspects of decision-making, communication, and social interactions.

Key Elements of the False Consensus Effect:

  1. Overestimation: The False Consensus Effect involves the tendency to overestimate how many people agree with or engage in the same behaviors as oneself.
  2. Ingroup Bias: It often relates to the ingroup bias, where people believe that their own group is more typical or superior, leading to the assumption that others outside the group share their views.
  3. Subjective Reality: The False Consensus Effect creates a subjective reality where individuals perceive their own experiences and opinions as normative.

Why the False Consensus Effect Matters:

Understanding the False Consensus Effect is crucial for improving decision-making, effective communication, and resolving conflicts. It sheds light on how our biases can lead to misinterpretations of others’ perspectives and behaviors.

The Impact of the False Consensus Effect:

  • Decision-Making: It can affect the choices individuals make when they assume that their preferences align with those of the majority.
  • Communication: The False Consensus Effect can hinder effective communication when individuals assume their views are widely held, leading to misunderstandings.
  • Conflict Resolution: It can exacerbate conflicts when people believe that others should naturally share their views, leading to frustration and miscommunication.

Benefits of Understanding the False Consensus Effect:

  • Improved Decision-Making: Awareness of this bias can lead to more thoughtful and informed decision-making.
  • Enhanced Communication: Recognizing the False Consensus Effect can promote better communication by encouraging individuals to seek common ground.

Challenges of Understanding the False Consensus Effect:

  • Confirmation Bias: The False Consensus Effect can reinforce confirmation bias, where individuals selectively seek information that confirms their beliefs.
  • Self-Perpetuating: The bias can become self-perpetuating when people assume others share their views, leading to homogeneity in social groups.

Factors That Contribute to the False Consensus Effect

1. Self-Projection

  • Self-projection is a key factor contributing to the False Consensus Effect. People often project their own thoughts, attitudes, and beliefs onto others. They assume that what they think or feel is widely held by the majority, leading to an overestimation of consensus.

2. Limited Perspective

  • Another factor is the inherent limited perspective individuals possess. It can be challenging to fully grasp diverse viewpoints and alternative perspectives, especially when one’s own beliefs are deeply ingrained. This limited perspective can further reinforce the False Consensus Effect.

3. Confirmation Bias

  • Confirmation bias plays a significant role in perpetuating the False Consensus Effect. Individuals tend to actively seek out information that confirms their existing beliefs and values. When they encounter individuals who share similar beliefs, they interpret this as evidence that their views are widely held.

Implications of the False Consensus Effect

1. Communication Challenges

  • The False Consensus Effect can lead to communication challenges. People may assume that others understand their viewpoints without explicitly expressing them, leading to confusion and frustration when this assumption is incorrect.

2. Hindrance in Conflict Resolution

  • In the context of conflict resolution, the False Consensus Effect can pose significant hurdles. When individuals believe that their perspective represents the consensus, they may struggle to reconcile conflicting viewpoints. This can hinder the resolution of disputes and lead to ongoing conflicts.

3. Influence on Decision Making

  • The False Consensus Effect can also significantly influence decision-making processes. Individuals may assume that others will readily agree with their proposed courses of action, leading to decisions that do not consider diverse perspectives. This can result in suboptimal outcomes and missed opportunities for innovation.

Strategies for Mitigating the False Consensus Effect

1. Active Listening

  • Active listening is a fundamental strategy for mitigating the False Consensus Effect. It involves genuinely seeking to understand others’ perspectives and actively engaging in conversations without immediately assuming consensus. By listening attentively, individuals can gain valuable insights into diverse viewpoints.

2. Encouraging Diverse Opinions

  • Fostering an environment where diverse opinions are welcomed and respected is essential. When individuals feel comfortable expressing their views, it becomes easier to challenge assumptions of consensus. Encouraging open dialogue and valuing differences of opinion can mitigate the False Consensus Effect.

3. Recognizing Bias

  • Recognizing bias, particularly confirmation bias, is crucial for addressing the False Consensus Effect. Individuals should actively challenge their assumptions and be open to the possibility that their beliefs may not be as widely shared as they initially thought. Recognizing bias and consciously seeking out alternative perspectives can help counteract this cognitive bias.

The False Consensus Effect in Action:

To understand the False Consensus Effect better, let’s explore how it operates in real-world scenarios and what it reveals about its impact on decision-making, communication, and conflict resolution.

Decision-Making:

  • Scenario: A group of coworkers is tasked with selecting a team-building activity. One member suggests a hiking trip, assuming that everyone enjoys outdoor activities.
  • The False Consensus Effect in Action:
    • Overestimation: The coworker assumes that because they enjoy hiking, it is a common preference among the group.
    • Decision Outcome: The group chooses the hiking trip, but some members are uncomfortable with the choice, leading to dissatisfaction.

Communication:

  • Scenario: Two friends with differing political views engage in a conversation about a controversial topic. Each assumes that their perspective is widely held.
  • The False Consensus Effect in Action:
    • Overestimation: Both friends believe that their views represent the majority opinion, leading to a heated and unproductive discussion.
    • Communication Breakdown: Due to the False Consensus Effect, the conversation becomes confrontational, and the friends fail to find common ground.

Conflict Resolution:

  • Scenario: A family is divided over a significant decision regarding an elderly family member’s care. Each side believes that their approach is the most common and should be accepted by everyone.
  • The False Consensus Effect in Action:
    • Overestimation: Each faction within the family assumes that their perspective is the norm and that others should naturally agree.
    • Conflict Escalation: The False Consensus Effect exacerbates tensions within the family, leading to a protracted and emotionally charged conflict.

False Consensus Effect Highlights:

  • Definition: The False Consensus Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the degree to which others share their own beliefs and opinions.
  • Factors:
    • Self-Projection: Projecting one’s own thoughts onto others, assuming they think similarly.
    • Limited Perspective: Struggling to understand diverse viewpoints due to personal biases.
    • Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that aligns with existing beliefs, reinforcing the perception of consensus.
  • Implications:
    • Communication: Miscommunication and misunderstanding arise from assuming others share the same perspectives.
    • Conflict Resolution: Challenges emerge in resolving conflicts when assuming unanimous agreement.
    • Decision Making: Influencing decision-making by mistakenly assuming widespread consensus.
  • Mitigation Strategies:
    • Active Listening: Engaging in active listening to grasp diverse viewpoints and clarify misunderstandings.
    • Encouraging Diverse Opinions: Creating an environment where different perspectives are valued and openly expressed.
    • Recognizing Bias: Being mindful of confirmation bias and actively questioning assumptions about others’ views.

Key Takeaways:

The False Consensus Effect is a cognitive bias that distorts our understanding of others’ beliefs and opinions, potentially leading to miscommunication, conflict, and biased decision-making. By fostering active listening, promoting diversity of thought, and acknowledging personal biases, individuals can mitigate the impact of this bias and enhance their communication and decision-making skills.

Key Highlights of the False Consensus Effect:

  • Definition: The False Consensus Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the extent to which others share their beliefs, preferences, or behaviors. This bias leads people to assume that their perspectives are more common and representative than they actually are.
  • Key Elements:
    • Overestimation: Individuals tend to overestimate how many people agree with or engage in the same behaviors as themselves.
    • Ingroup Bias: This bias often relates to ingroup bias, where people believe that their own group is more typical or superior, leading to the assumption that outsiders share their views.
    • Subjective Reality: The False Consensus Effect creates a subjective reality where individuals perceive their own experiences and opinions as normative.
  • Importance: Understanding the False Consensus Effect is crucial for improving decision-making, effective communication, and resolving conflicts. It helps shed light on how biases can lead to misinterpretations of others’ perspectives and behaviors.
  • Impact:
    • Decision-Making: It can affect choices individuals make when they assume their preferences align with the majority.
    • Communication: Hinders effective communication when individuals assume their views are widely held, leading to misunderstandings.
    • Conflict Resolution: Exacerbates conflicts when people believe others should naturally share their views, leading to frustration and miscommunication.
  • Benefits:
    • Improved Decision-Making: Awareness of this bias can lead to more thoughtful and informed decision-making.
    • Enhanced Communication: Recognizing the False Consensus Effect can promote better communication by encouraging individuals to seek common ground.
  • Challenges:
    • Confirmation Bias: It can reinforce confirmation bias, where individuals selectively seek information that confirms their beliefs.
    • Self-Perpetuating: The bias can become self-perpetuating when people assume others share their views, leading to homogeneity in social groups.
  • Factors Contributing to the False Consensus Effect:
    • Self-Projection: Projecting one’s own thoughts onto others.
    • Limited Perspective: Difficulty in understanding diverse viewpoints due to personal biases.
    • Confirmation Bias: Actively seeking information that aligns with existing beliefs, reinforcing the perception of consensus.
  • Implications:
    • Communication Challenges: Miscommunication and misunderstanding arise from assuming others share the same perspectives.
    • Hindrance in Conflict Resolution: Challenges emerge in resolving conflicts when assuming unanimous agreement.
    • Influence on Decision Making: Influencing decision-making by mistakenly assuming widespread consensus.
  • Mitigation Strategies:
    • Active Listening: Engaging in active listening to grasp diverse viewpoints and clarify misunderstandings.
    • Encouraging Diverse Opinions: Creating an environment where different perspectives are valued and openly expressed.
    • Recognizing Bias: Being mindful of confirmation bias and actively questioning assumptions about others’ views.
  • Key Takeaways: The False Consensus Effect distorts understanding of others’ beliefs and opinions, potentially leading to miscommunication, conflict, and biased decision-making. Mitigating its impact involves fostering active listening, promoting diversity of thought, and acknowledging personal biases.
Related FrameworkDescriptionWhen to Apply
Confirmation Bias– The tendency to seek, interpret, and remember information that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses while ignoring or discounting contradictory evidence. Confirmation bias can exacerbate the False Consensus Effect by reinforcing individuals’ perceptions of the prevalence of their own opinions or behaviors.– Relevant in decision-making processes, group discussions, and research design, where recognizing and mitigating biases are essential for impartial analysis and decision-making.
Selective Perception– The tendency to perceive and interpret information in a manner consistent with one’s existing beliefs, expectations, or attitudes, while filtering out information that contradicts or challenges them. Selective perception contributes to the False Consensus Effect by shaping individuals’ perceptions of the prevalence of their own viewpoints or behaviors.– Applicable in communication strategies, marketing research, and negotiation tactics to understand how individuals’ preconceptions influence their perceptions and responses to information.
Pluralistic Ignorance– Occurs when individuals privately reject a norm or belief but incorrectly assume that others accept it, leading to a public adherence to the norm. Pluralistic ignorance can reinforce the False Consensus Effect by perpetuating the belief that one’s own opinions or behaviors are more widely shared than they actually are.– Relevant in social conformity, organizational culture analysis, and public opinion research, where understanding the gap between public and private attitudes is essential for effective intervention.
Availability Heuristic– The tendency to overestimate the frequency or probability of events based on their ease of retrieval from memory. The availability heuristic can contribute to the False Consensus Effect by leading individuals to overestimate the prevalence of their own opinions or behaviors if they recall instances where others expressed similar views.– Applicable in risk assessment, perception management, and public relations, where understanding how individuals’ judgments are influenced by the salience of information is crucial for effective communication.
Social Comparison Theory– Proposes that individuals evaluate themselves by comparing their abilities, opinions, or attributes to those of others. Social comparison theory can contribute to the False Consensus Effect by leading individuals to overestimate the prevalence of their own opinions or behaviors if they primarily associate with like-minded individuals.– Relevant in peer influence studies, consumer behavior analysis, and social media research, where understanding how individuals’ self-perceptions are influenced by comparisons with others is essential.
Group Polarization– Refers to the tendency for group discussions to result in the amplification of members’ initial inclinations or preferences. Group polarization can exacerbate the False Consensus Effect by reinforcing individuals’ perceptions of the prevalence of their own opinions or behaviors within a like-minded group.– Applicable in team dynamics analysis, political polarization research, and online communities, where understanding the dynamics of group influence is crucial for predicting collective behavior and decision-making.
Illusory Correlation– Occurs when individuals perceive a relationship between two variables that does not actually exist or is weaker than assumed. Illusory correlation can contribute to the False Consensus Effect by leading individuals to erroneously believe that others share their opinions or behaviors based on coincidental or exaggerated associations.– Relevant in stereotype formation, prejudice reduction efforts, and perception management, where recognizing and correcting misconceptions about group characteristics is essential for promoting understanding and inclusivity.
Anchoring and Adjustment– The tendency to rely heavily on an initial piece of information (the “anchor”) when making judgments or estimates, adjusting insufficiently away from it. Anchoring and adjustment can contribute to the False Consensus Effect by leading individuals to anchor their estimates of others’ opinions or behaviors on their own views.– Applicable in negotiation strategies, market research, and persuasion tactics, where understanding how initial information influences subsequent judgments and decisions is critical for achieving desired outcomes.
Ingroup Bias– The tendency to favor members of one’s own group over those of other groups. Ingroup bias can contribute to the False Consensus Effect by leading individuals to overestimate the prevalence of their own group’s opinions or behaviors while underestimating those of outgroups.– Relevant in intergroup conflict resolution, diversity training, and team-building efforts, where fostering understanding and empathy across diverse groups is essential for promoting collaboration and cohesion.
Cognitive Dissonance– The discomfort experienced when individuals hold conflicting beliefs, attitudes, or behaviors. Cognitive dissonance can contribute to the False Consensus Effect by leading individuals to seek confirmation of their own opinions or behaviors to reduce the discomfort of perceived inconsistency.– Applicable in attitude change interventions, behavioral change programs, and persuasion campaigns, where addressing conflicting beliefs or attitudes is essential for promoting acceptance of new ideas or behaviors.

Connected Thinking Frameworks

Convergent vs. Divergent Thinking

convergent-vs-divergent-thinking
Convergent thinking occurs when the solution to a problem can be found by applying established rules and logical reasoning. Whereas divergent thinking is an unstructured problem-solving method where participants are encouraged to develop many innovative ideas or solutions to a given problem. Where convergent thinking might work for larger, mature organizations where divergent thinking is more suited for startups and innovative companies.

Critical Thinking

critical-thinking
Critical thinking involves analyzing observations, facts, evidence, and arguments to form a judgment about what someone reads, hears, says, or writes.

Biases

biases
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.

Second-Order Thinking

second-order-thinking
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.

Lateral Thinking

lateral-thinking
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.

Bounded Rationality

bounded-rationality
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.

Dunning-Kruger Effect

dunning-kruger-effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.

Occam’s Razor

occams-razor
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.

Lindy Effect

lindy-effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory about the ageing of non-perishable things, like technology or ideas. Popularized by author Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the Lindy Effect states that non-perishable things like technology age – linearly – in reverse. Therefore, the older an idea or a technology, the same will be its life expectancy.

Antifragility

antifragility
Antifragility was first coined as a term by author, and options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Antifragility is a characteristic of systems that thrive as a result of stressors, volatility, and randomness. Therefore, Antifragile is the opposite of fragile. Where a fragile thing breaks up to volatility; a robust thing resists volatility. An antifragile thing gets stronger from volatility (provided the level of stressors and randomness doesn’t pass a certain threshold).

Systems Thinking

systems-thinking
Systems thinking is a holistic means of investigating the factors and interactions that could contribute to a potential outcome. It is about thinking non-linearly, and understanding the second-order consequences of actions and input into the system.

Vertical Thinking

vertical-thinking
Vertical thinking, on the other hand, is a problem-solving approach that favors a selective, analytical, structured, and sequential mindset. The focus of vertical thinking is to arrive at a reasoned, defined solution.

Maslow’s Hammer

einstellung-effect
Maslow’s Hammer, otherwise known as the law of the instrument or the Einstellung effect, is a cognitive bias causing an over-reliance on a familiar tool. This can be expressed as the tendency to overuse a known tool (perhaps a hammer) to solve issues that might require a different tool. This problem is persistent in the business world where perhaps known tools or frameworks might be used in the wrong context (like business plans used as planning tools instead of only investors’ pitches).

Peter Principle

peter-principle
The Peter Principle was first described by Canadian sociologist Lawrence J. Peter in his 1969 book The Peter Principle. The Peter Principle states that people are continually promoted within an organization until they reach their level of incompetence.

Straw Man Fallacy

straw-man-fallacy
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.

Streisand Effect

streisand-effect
The Streisand Effect is a paradoxical phenomenon where the act of suppressing information to reduce visibility causes it to become more visible. In 2003, Streisand attempted to suppress aerial photographs of her Californian home by suing photographer Kenneth Adelman for an invasion of privacy. Adelman, who Streisand assumed was paparazzi, was instead taking photographs to document and study coastal erosion. In her quest for more privacy, Streisand’s efforts had the opposite effect.

Heuristic

heuristic
As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.

Recognition Heuristic

recognition-heuristic
The recognition heuristic is a psychological model of judgment and decision making. It is part of a suite of simple and economical heuristics proposed by psychologists Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer. The recognition heuristic argues that inferences are made about an object based on whether it is recognized or not.

Representativeness Heuristic

representativeness-heuristic
The representativeness heuristic was first described by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The representativeness heuristic judges the probability of an event according to the degree to which that event resembles a broader class. When queried, most will choose the first option because the description of John matches the stereotype we may hold for an archaeologist.

Take-The-Best Heuristic

take-the-best-heuristic
The take-the-best heuristic is a decision-making shortcut that helps an individual choose between several alternatives. The take-the-best (TTB) heuristic decides between two or more alternatives based on a single good attribute, otherwise known as a cue. In the process, less desirable attributes are ignored.

Bundling Bias

bundling-bias
The bundling bias is a cognitive bias in e-commerce where a consumer tends not to use all of the products bought as a group, or bundle. Bundling occurs when individual products or services are sold together as a bundle. Common examples are tickets and experiences. The bundling bias dictates that consumers are less likely to use each item in the bundle. This means that the value of the bundle and indeed the value of each item in the bundle is decreased.

Barnum Effect

barnum-effect
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.

First-Principles Thinking

first-principles-thinking
First-principles thinking – sometimes called reasoning from first principles – is used to reverse-engineer complex problems and encourage creativity. It involves breaking down problems into basic elements and reassembling them from the ground up. Elon Musk is among the strongest proponents of this way of thinking.

Ladder Of Inference

ladder-of-inference
The ladder of inference is a conscious or subconscious thinking process where an individual moves from a fact to a decision or action. The ladder of inference was created by academic Chris Argyris to illustrate how people form and then use mental models to make decisions.

Goodhart’s Law

goodharts-law
Goodhart’s Law is named after British monetary policy theorist and economist Charles Goodhart. Speaking at a conference in Sydney in 1975, Goodhart said that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Goodhart’s Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Six Thinking Hats Model

six-thinking-hats-model
The Six Thinking Hats model was created by psychologist Edward de Bono in 1986, who noted that personality type was a key driver of how people approached problem-solving. For example, optimists view situations differently from pessimists. Analytical individuals may generate ideas that a more emotional person would not, and vice versa.

Mandela Effect

mandela-effect
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.

Crowding-Out Effect

crowding-out-effect
The crowding-out effect occurs when public sector spending reduces spending in the private sector.

Bandwagon Effect

bandwagon-effect
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What in marketing can be associated with social proof.

Moore’s Law

moores-law
Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 and it become a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry and has had far-reaching implications for technology as a whole.

Disruptive Innovation

disruptive-innovation
Disruptive innovation as a term was first described by Clayton M. Christensen, an American academic and business consultant whom The Economist called “the most influential management thinker of his time.” Disruptive innovation describes the process by which a product or service takes hold at the bottom of a market and eventually displaces established competitors, products, firms, or alliances.

Value Migration

value-migration
Value migration was first described by author Adrian Slywotzky in his 1996 book Value Migration – How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Value migration is the transferal of value-creating forces from outdated business models to something better able to satisfy consumer demands.

Bye-Now Effect

bye-now-effect
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.

Groupthink

groupthink
Groupthink occurs when well-intentioned individuals make non-optimal or irrational decisions based on a belief that dissent is impossible or on a motivation to conform. Groupthink occurs when members of a group reach a consensus without critical reasoning or evaluation of the alternatives and their consequences.

Stereotyping

stereotyping
A stereotype is a fixed and over-generalized belief about a particular group or class of people. These beliefs are based on the false assumption that certain characteristics are common to every individual residing in that group. Many stereotypes have a long and sometimes controversial history and are a direct consequence of various political, social, or economic events. Stereotyping is the process of making assumptions about a person or group of people based on various attributes, including gender, race, religion, or physical traits.

Murphy’s Law

murphys-law
Murphy’s Law states that if anything can go wrong, it will go wrong. Murphy’s Law was named after aerospace engineer Edward A. Murphy. During his time working at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, Murphy cursed a technician who had improperly wired an electrical component and said, “If there is any way to do it wrong, he’ll find it.”

Law of Unintended Consequences

law-of-unintended-consequences
The law of unintended consequences was first mentioned by British philosopher John Locke when writing to parliament about the unintended effects of interest rate rises. However, it was popularized in 1936 by American sociologist Robert K. Merton who looked at unexpected, unanticipated, and unintended consequences and their impact on society.

Fundamental Attribution Error

fundamental-attribution-error
Fundamental attribution error is a bias people display when judging the behavior of others. The tendency is to over-emphasize personal characteristics and under-emphasize environmental and situational factors.

Outcome Bias

outcome-bias
Outcome bias describes a tendency to evaluate a decision based on its outcome and not on the process by which the decision was reached. In other words, the quality of a decision is only determined once the outcome is known. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard for how those events developed.

Hindsight Bias

hindsight-bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened.

Read Next: Biases, Bounded Rationality, Mandela Effect, Dunning-Kruger Effect, Lindy Effect, Crowding Out Effect, Bandwagon Effect.

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