As highlighted by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer in the paper “Heuristic Decision Making,” the term heuristic is of Greek origin, meaning “serving to find out or discover.” More precisely, a heuristic is a fast and accurate way to make decisions in the real world, which is driven by uncertainty.
Bounded rationality is a concept attributed to Herbert Simon, an economist and political scientist interested in decision-making and how we make decisions in the real world. In fact, he believed that rather than optimizing (which was the mainstream view in the past decades) humans follow what he called satisficing.
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our decisions by considering future consequences. Second-order thinking is a mental model that considers all future possibilities. It encourages individuals to think outside of the box so that they can prepare for every and eventuality. It also discourages the tendency for individuals to default to the most obvious choice.
Lateral thinking is a business strategy that involves approaching a problem from a different direction. The strategy attempts to remove traditionally formulaic and routine approaches to problem-solving by advocating creative thinking, therefore finding unconventional ways to solve a known problem. This sort of non-linear approach to problem-solving, can at times, create a big impact.
Moonshot thinking is an approach to innovation, and it can be applied to business or any other discipline where you target at least 10X goals. That shifts the mindset, and it empowers a team of people to look for unconventional solutions, thus starting from first principles, by leveraging on fast-paced experimentation.
The concept of cognitive biases was introduced and popularized by the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972. Biases are seen as systematic errors and flaws that make humans deviate from the standards of rationality, thus making us inept at making good decisions under uncertainty.
The Dunning-Kruger effect describes a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a task overestimate their ability to perform that task well. Consumers or businesses that do not possess the requisite knowledge make bad decisions. What’s more, knowledge gaps prevent the person or business from seeing their mistakes.
The straw man fallacy describes an argument that misrepresents an opponent’s stance to make rebuttal more convenient. The straw man fallacy is a type of informal logical fallacy, defined as a flaw in the structure of an argument that renders it invalid.
Gambler’s fallacy is a mistaken belief that past events influence future events. This fallacy can manifest in several ways. One example, if how individuals mistakenly conclude past events. Instead, to prevent the gambler’s fallacy, business people need to know that the real world is more complex and subtle than a game, and rather than relying on complex models, they can rely on solid time-proved heuristics.
The Pygmalion effect is a psychological phenomenon where higher expectations lead to an increase in performance. The Pygmalion effect was defined by psychologist Robert Rosenthal, who described it as “the phenomenon whereby one person’s expectation for another person’s behavior comes to serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
The Barnum Effect is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that generic information – which applies to most people – is specifically tailored for themselves.
The bottom-dollar effect describes a tendency among consumers to dislike purchases that exhaust their remaining budget. If a consumer spends the last $50 in their bank account on dinner at a restaurant with friends, they may enjoy good food and good company. But after the meal, they feel dissatisfied because the meal has exhausted the last of their funds. Here, the negative emotions associated with running out of money have been applied to the meal itself. This is known as the bottom-dollar effect.
The bye-now effect describes the tendency for consumers to think of the word “buy” when they read the word “bye”. In a study that tracked diners at a name-your-own-price restaurant, each diner was asked to read one of two phrases before ordering their meal. The first phrase, “so long”, resulted in diners paying an average of $32 per meal. But when diners recited the phrase “bye-bye” before ordering, the average price per meal rose to $45.
In business, the butterfly effect describes the phenomenon where the simplest actions yield the largest rewards. The butterfly effect was coined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in 1960 and as a result, it is most often associated with weather in pop culture. Lorenz noted that the small action of a butterfly fluttering its wings had the potential to cause progressively larger actions resulting in a typhoon.
The IKEA effect is a cognitive bias that describes consumers’ tendency to value something more if they have made it themselves. That is why brands often use the IKEA effect to have customizations for final products, as they help the consumer relate to it more and therefore appending to it more value.
The halo effect is a cognitive bias where the overall impression of a business, brand, or product influences how people feel and think about them. The halo effect was coined by psychologist Edward Thorndike in a 1920 study where military commanders were asked to rate subordinates based on several characteristics.
Occam’s Razor states that one should not increase (beyond reason) the number of entities required to explain anything. All things being equal, the simplest solution is often the best one. The principle is attributed to 14th-century English theologian William of Ockham.
The Mandela effect is a phenomenon where a large group of people remembers an event differently from how it occurred. The Mandela effect was first described in relation to Fiona Broome, who believed that former South African President Nelson Mandela died in prison during the 1980s. While Mandela was released from prison in 1990 and died 23 years later, Broome remembered news coverage of his death in prison and even a speech from his widow. Of course, neither event occurred in reality. But Broome was later to discover that she was not the only one with the same recollection of events.
The bandwagon effect tells us that the more a belief or idea has been adopted by more people within a group, the more the individual adoption of that idea might increase within the same group. This is the psychological effect that leads to herd mentality. What is marketing can be associated with social proof.
Key Highlights
Heuristics: Fast and accurate decision-making in uncertainty.
Bounded Rationality: Decision-making in the real world, following satisficing.
Second-Order Thinking: Considering future consequences of decisions.
Lateral Thinking: Approaching problems creatively and unconventionally.
Moonshot Thinking: Setting ambitious 10X goals and experimenting.
Biases: Systematic errors impacting decision-making under uncertainty.
Dunning-Kruger Effect: Overestimating abilities and making poor decisions.
Straw Man Fallacy: Misrepresenting arguments for easier rebuttal.
Gambler’s Fallacy: Mistaken belief in past events influencing the future.
Base Rate Fallacy: Inaccurately judging the likelihood of events.
Pygmalion Effect: Higher expectations leading to increased performance.
Barnum Effect: Believing generic information is personalized.
Bottom-Dollar Effect: Disliking purchases that exhaust the budget.
Bye-Now Effect: Confusing “buy” with “bye” influences decision-making.
Butterfly Effect: Small actions leading to significant consequences.
IKEA Effect: Valuing self-made creations more.
Halo Effect: Overall impression influencing perception of businesses.
Occam’s Razor: Simplicity as the best solution.
Mandela Effect: Shared false memories of events.
Crowding-Out Effect: Public sector spending reducing private sector spending.
Bandwagon Effect: Belief adoption increasing with group adoption.
Concept
Description
Application
Advantages
Drawbacks
Heuristics
Fast and accurate decision-making strategies for real-world situations driven by uncertainty.
Quick decision-making, problem-solving in uncertain environments.
Speed, practicality, adaptability.
May lead to errors in complex or rare situations.
Bounded Rationality
Decision-making concept where individuals aim for satisfactory outcomes rather than optimization.
Real-world decision-making, dealing with limited time and information.
Simplicity, adaptability to constraints.
May not result in the best possible outcomes.
Second-Order Thinking
Assessing decision implications by considering future consequences and thinking beyond the obvious.
Strategic decision-making, planning for various scenarios.
Comprehensive evaluation, risk mitigation.
Requires thinking beyond immediate consequences.
Lateral Thinking
Non-linear problem-solving strategy emphasizing creative thinking and unconventional approaches.
Problem-solving, innovation, breaking routine thought patterns.
Novel solutions, creativity, problem diversification.
May require open-mindedness and creative skills.
Moonshot Thinking
Innovative approach targeting ambitious goals, often aiming for at least 10X improvements.
Innovation, challenging status quo, thinking from first principles.
Breakthrough innovations, disruptive thinking.
Risk of failure, resource-intensive, not suitable for all goals.
Biases
Systematic errors and flaws in decision-making caused by cognitive biases and deviations from rationality.
Understanding and mitigating decision-making errors.
Awareness of biases, improved decision quality.
May still affect decision-making despite awareness.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Cognitive bias where individuals with low ability in a task overestimate their competence in that task.
Identifying and addressing overconfidence and knowledge gaps.
Improved self-awareness, more accurate self-assessment.
Can hinder learning and performance improvement.
Straw Man Fallacy
A flawed argument technique that misrepresents an opponent’s stance for easier rebuttal.
Analyzing and identifying logical fallacies in arguments.
Enhanced critical thinking, more valid arguments.
Can lead to misunderstandings or misinterpretations.
Gambler’s Fallacy
Mistaken belief that past events influence future events, often seen in random events like gambling.
Understanding and avoiding the fallacy in decision-making.
Rational decision-making, risk mitigation.
Can lead to incorrect predictions and decisions.
Base Rate Fallacy
Error in judging the likelihood of an event by not considering all relevant data and relying on stereotypes.
Making more informed and unbiased probability assessments.
Improved probability estimation, better decision accuracy.
May require access to comprehensive data and analysis.
Pygmalion Effect
Psychological phenomenon where higher expectations lead to increased performance in individuals.
Motivation, leadership, coaching, and performance improvement.
Improved individual and team performance, self-fulfilling prophecy.
Expectations can be unrealistic or demotivating.
Barnum Effect
Cognitive bias where individuals believe generic information is specifically tailored for them.
Marketing, personalization, and understanding consumer behavior.
Gennaro is the creator of FourWeekMBA, which reached about four million business people, comprising C-level executives, investors, analysts, product managers, and aspiring digital entrepreneurs in 2022 alone | He is also Director of Sales for a high-tech scaleup in the AI Industry | In 2012, Gennaro earned an International MBA with emphasis on Corporate Finance and Business Strategy.
