Meta had approximately $355.73 billion of operating and finance leases that had not yet commenced as of 30 September 2026, its quarterly report filed with the SEC on 22 October 2026 shows. The figure was approximately $278.99 billion three months earlier, in its report for 30 June. Meta said the leases consist of data centers, energy-related infrastructure, colocations and certain network infrastructure, and sit outside the lease liabilities on its balance sheet.
Meta is not alone. The latest filings of Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon and Alphabet each disclose leases, mostly for data centers, that have not yet commenced and are not yet recorded. By our arithmetic, the five disclosures add up to about $1.2 trillion, measured on different dates between 30 June and 30 September 2026.
Business Pill · SALE-LEASEBACK
A short explainer of a sale-leaseback: selling an asset to an investor and renting it straight back, and why the investor needs the asset to hold its value. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about the companies in this piece.
The key insight: As we read it, the footnotes hold numbers of a different scale from recent debt headlines: Meta’s 10-Q, filed on 22 October, lists approximately $355.73 billion of leases not yet commenced, against the $40 billion of GPU debt Musk said SpaceX closed.
Update (26 Oct): S&P says there is likely more it cannot see. CNBC on 26 October ran an interview headlined “S&P Global’s Mark Habib on why hyperscalers likely have more AI debt than investors realize”; we have read only the headline. Habib, S&P’s global head for digital infrastructure, made the case at a London roundtable, Reuters reported on 20 October: “It is safe to assume that there is more (debt) out there that we are not seeing.” He added: “If it’s not reported, then it’s not part of the disclosure by the hyperscalers.” S&P gave no estimate of that unseen debt, and Habib said it saw no “major disconnect” that would force rating changes for now.
S&P expects Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, Meta and SpaceX to spend more than $7 trillion on data centres and other AI capex from 2025 to 2030, with negative free cash flow until at least next year, according to Reuters. The lease figures above come from company filings and are a different measure from S&P’s.
Update (26 Oct): late delivery now has a daily price. The Information reported on 25 October that data-centre tenants in new deals have begun asking for more than $5 million for each day of delay (The Information). Its report says Marsh’s Mike Mathews designed “delay-in-delivery” coverage this spring to protect a developer from a $1 million-a-day late fee on the first phase of a gigawatt-scale facility, before penalties escalated within months. We have read only the opening of the report.
Update (26 Oct): the debt markets are pricing the build-out too. Bloomberg reported on 26 October that Morgan Stanley expects spreads on data-centre asset-backed securities (ABS) to widen further (Bloomberg). We have read only the headline, so we cannot yet say by how much, over what period, or which deals the bank’s view covers.
Update (26 Oct): the borrowing has reached the bond market’s record book. Bloomberg reported on 26 October that funding needs for AI have pushed US high-grade bond sales to an annual record (Bloomberg). We have read only the headline, so we cannot yet give the total, the prior record it beat or the issuers it names. The same day, Meta’s filing set out up to $95 billion of stock sales, covered in our piece on its offerings.
The filings describe these as leases that “have not yet commenced” and, in Oracle’s words, commitments “that were not reflected on our condensed consolidated balance sheets”. Alphabet says its leases “have not yet commenced with future lease payments of $85.2 billion that are not yet recorded.”
Company
Leases not yet commenced
As of
Filing
What the filing says they are
Meta
$355.73 billion
At 30 Sep 2026
10-Q, filed 22 Oct 2026
Data centers, energy-related infrastructure, colocations, network infrastructure; commence 2026 to 2036
Microsoft
$329.1 billion
At 30 Jun 2026
10-K, filed 29 Jul 2026
Primarily datacenters; commence fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2033
Oracle
$288 billion
At 31 Aug 2026
10-Q, filed 11 Sep 2026
Substantially all data center arrangements; generally commence Q2 fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2029, terms of 15 to 19 years
Amazon
$137.214 billion
At 30 Jun 2026
10-Q, filed 31 Jul 2026
Commitments table line “Leases not yet commenced”; no breakdown by asset
Alphabet
$85.2 billion
At 30 Jun 2026
10-Q, filed 23 Jul 2026
Primarily data centers; commence 2026 to 2031
Source: each company’s latest 10-Q or 10-K on SEC EDGAR, read on 26 October 2026. The sum of about $1.2 trillion ($1,195.24 billion) is our arithmetic across the five figures; the dates differ, and the figures are commitments not yet recorded as lease liabilities.
The commencement windows run for years. Microsoft said its leases will commence between fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2033 with lease terms of 1 year to 20 years, and that some arrangements are subject to certain contractual conditions being met. Alphabet said that in June 2026 it also entered into a short-term lease with a non-cancelable commitment of approximately $5.8 billion, to commence in the third quarter of 2026.
Leases that have not yet commenced, latest SEC filing: Meta $355.73 billion (30 September 2026), Microsoft $329.1 billion (30 June 2026), Oracle $288 billion (31 August 2026), Amazon $137.214 billion (30 June 2026), Alphabet $85.2 billion (30 June 2026). Commitments as disclosed, not yet recorded as lease liabilities; dates differ. Source: company 10-Q and 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR.
Bloomberg’s post says US investment-grade bond sales were poised to set an annual record on Monday, surpassing the $1.75 trillion issued during the pandemic-fueled borrowing boom of 2020, as a surge in AI spending drives companies to raise more debt.
Meta Added About $77 Billion in a Quarter
Meta’s figure rose from approximately $278.99 billion on 30 June to approximately $355.73 billion on 30 September, a rise of about $76.74 billion by our arithmetic. In its report for the second quarter, Meta said that in July 2026 it entered into additional data center leases with lease obligations of approximately $68 billion, expected to commence in 2027 and 2028, with lease terms of 18 to 20 years.
The same 10-Q lists $454.52 billion of non-cancelable contractual commitments as of 30 September 2026, which Meta said mostly relate to third-party cloud capacity arrangements, investments in servers and network infrastructure, energy service agreements for data centers and consumer hardware in Reality Labs. That figure was $349.31 billion on 30 June, the earlier report shows.
Meta’s leases not yet commenced: approximately $278.99 billion at 30 June 2026 and $355.73 billion at 30 September 2026, per its 10-Q filings; the rise of about $76.74 billion is our arithmetic.
The Ventures Meta Does Not Consolidate
Meta holds a 20% membership interest in two ventures that co-develop data center campuses: one in Louisiana, entered into in October 2025, and one in Texas, entered into in July 2026, the 10-Q says. The parties committed to fund their pro rata share of approximately $27 billion and $14 billion in total estimated development costs. Meta leases the campuses from the ventures; the Louisiana lease commences in 2029 and the Texas lease in 2028, each with an initial four-year term and renewals up to 20 years.
Meta has provided residual value guarantees to each venture. If it decides to terminate or not renew a lease, and certain other conditions are met, its maximum payment would equal any shortfall between the fair value at that time and the guarantee threshold. Meta said such payments “are not probable, and therefore no liability has been recorded to date.” Because Meta does not have the power to direct the activities that most affect the ventures’ economic performance, it does not consolidate them.
Meta’s maximum exposure to loss in the unconsolidated data center ventures
At 30 Sep 2026
At 31 Dec 2025
Carrying value of equity investments
$4.732 billion
$1.826 billion
Lease commitments
$18.476 billion
$12.311 billion
Future funding commitments
$3.703 billion
$3.724 billion
Maximum residual value guarantees
$41.493 billion
$28.091 billion
Total
$68.404 billion
$45.952 billion
Source: Meta Platforms 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, Note 5, filed 22 October 2026.
Connecting the Coverage
The footnotes sit beside last week’s financing news. Elon Musk wrote on X on 25 October that “SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue,” as our SpaceX debt piece reported. The same piece quotes Nebius chief executive Arkady Volozh saying on 22 October that Nebius is “working now with customer advances and several other instruments.”
Meta’s own information statement, filed on 21 October, says its adviser put the most it could raise in equity at about $700 billion over a number of years without Mark Zuckerberg’s voting power falling below 50%, as our piece on the Meta filing reported. CoreWeave’s unsecured debt carried a yield of about 15%, CNBC reported, as our CoreWeave debt piece covered, and the margin between renting GPUs and selling tokens now has a name, the “crunch spread,” from DRW’s Don Wilson, as our B300 rent piece reported.
The Structural Read
Meta’s figure rose by about $76.74 billion in a quarter by our arithmetic, a period in which it entered into approximately $68 billion of data center leases, in July 2026, its filings say.
As we read it, the balance sheet is where the timing shows: Oracle says its $288 billion of lease commitments were not reflected on its balance sheets, and Microsoft says its $329.1 billion will commence between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2033.
As we read it, the ventures add a second layer: Meta’s maximum residual value guarantees to its unconsolidated data center ventures were $41.493 billion on 30 September 2026, up from $28.091 billion at the end of 2025, its 10-Q shows.
Meta Platforms 10-Q, filed 22 October 2026, on its residual value guarantees
“RVG payments are not probable, and therefore no liability has been recorded to date.”
Three Implications
FOR READERS OF BALANCE SHEETS The five filings put about $1.2 trillion of not-yet-commenced leases outside recorded lease liabilities, by our arithmetic; the figures are measured on dates between 30 June and 30 September 2026.
FOR META Its 10-Q lists $454.52 billion of non-cancelable contractual commitments on 30 September 2026, up from $349.31 billion on 30 June, the filings show.
FOR THIS WEEK’S REPORTSMicrosoft, Alphabet and Amazon have not yet filed reports for the quarter ended 30 September 2026; their next filings will give new figures.
The analysis puts it this way: the thesis is that “the capex race is no longer a corporate spending cycle.”
As we read it, the lease footnotes are one place to see that financing at work. The analysis was published in May 2026 and does not discuss these lease figures or Meta’s ventures.
What Is Not Established
The five figures are measured on different dates and are not one definition: Amazon’s line has no asset breakdown, Microsoft’s includes arrangements subject to contractual conditions, and Meta’s includes energy-related infrastructure. The filings do not say how much of each total serves AI workloads. The figures are future lease payments, not debt, and the $1.2 trillion total is our arithmetic. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon have not yet filed reports for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. We did not contact the companies.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
Execution Fault Lines, Concentrated Demand, and Geopolitical Firewalls
This week’s issue: the AI build is not short of demand for its parts. It is short of cheap money, and its end revenue rests on a narrow base of large, often venture-funded buyers.
Meta had approximately $355.73 billion of leases that had not yet commenced on 30 September 2026, up from $278.99 billion on 30 June, its 10-Q filed on 22 October shows. With Microsoft’s $329.1 billion, Oracle’s $288 billion, Amazon’s $137.214 billion and Alphabet’s $85.2 billion, the five disclosures add up to about $1.2 trillion by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. This piece is based on the companies’ own SEC filings: Meta’s 10-Q reports for the quarters ended 30 June and 30 September 2026, Microsoft’s 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026, Oracle’s 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026, and Amazon’s and Alphabet’s 10-Q reports for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, read on SEC EDGAR on 26 October 2026. Sums across companies are our arithmetic. We did not contact the companies.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
