AI Supercycle Tracker: The Events That Move AI Across Geo, Macro and Tech

Producer prices carry memory and hardware cost pressure before it reaches consumer prices.

It removes the CCS-based standards for new baseload gas turbines, the kind of plant several AI campuses propose to build for on-site power.

An official US statistics agency puts experimental numbers on the AI economy, which can anchor estimates of its share of output.

Nvidia's data-centre revenue and guidance are the most direct read on how much AI capex the hyperscalers are still committing.

The price set against the $70-$78 range fixes Anthropic's public valuation and the value of the 825 million shares offered; the filing calls all dates indicative.

The close of the international retail books ends the order-taking phase of the largest IPO on record, per the filings' timetables.

Trump said he will travel to China for the summit (Reuters, 8 Nov), the setting for any decision on the truce terms that lapse on 9-10 January.

The chairs of the China, Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees asked Jensen Huang to brief them on his reported interactions with a Megaspeed executive and Nvidia's security protocols; whether he attends is not established.

First day of public trading turns the largest AI lab's valuation into a daily market price that other AI assets will be marked against.

Settlement completes the offering, and the S-1/A says the $26.0B Class N private placement at the IPO price is scheduled to close immediately after the offering completes.

Dell's AI server orders and backlog show whether enterprise and neocloud buyers are still converting AI demand into hardware purchases.

Business investment in equipment and software inside GDP is where AI capex shows up in national accounts.

PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the last one before the December decision.

Google's own pricing page sets the step-up, bringing the frontier Gemini tier level with Claude Opus 5.5 on a standard workload.

Openings and hires show whether employers are slowing white-collar hiring as AI tools spread.

Marvell's custom-silicon and optical revenue tracks hyperscaler spending on in-house AI chips and data-centre networking.

Under the AI Omnibus adopted by Parliament, AI-generated content must be machine-readably labelled and nudifier-capable systems must have safeguards by this date.

The court let the advertising claims proceed with leave to amend; if plaintiffs do not amend, Anthropic must answer by 16 December 2026.

Salesforce is a large-scale test of whether enterprise software buyers are paying for AI agents, the demand side of the AI build-out.

The first full filings after election day show final-weeks receipts and spending by AI-industry and AI-safety super PACs.

Payrolls go into the December Fed decision and show whether AI-exposed sectors keep shedding jobs.

The proposed rule would require US investors to notify or refrain from certain deals with foreign persons in notifiable or prohibited technologies, implementing the Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security Act.

Productivity is where an AI payoff would show up in official data; the first Q3 estimate was strong.

Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue measures hyperscaler spending on custom accelerators and AI networking outside Nvidia.

The Planning and Zoning Commission is the decision-making body for the Tombstone Resources special-use case that SpaceX promoted at a town hall; written comments for the packet close 27 Nov.

The Fed's rate path sets the cost of the debt that funds data centres, neoclouds and AI chip purchases; this meeting also publishes new projections.

The city will consider Chapter 312 and Chapter 380 agreements for a gas-fired power plant and super-compute facility with initial phases put at about $24 billion.

Lands the day after the December Fed decision; October's hot print was the case for a hike, so this tests it.

ERCOT's pause on energizing new large-load data centres runs until the verification and community-impact reports are done.

TSMC's monthly revenue is the earliest hard data each month on AI chip output across Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Apple.

Congress must pass FY2027 appropriations or another CR by this date to avoid a partial government shutdown, which can delay agency actions and data releases.

First producer-price read after the December Fed decision.

First decision after the November hike to 4%; UK rates drive the cost of the UK's AI growth-zone build-outs.

Euro rates set funding costs for Europe's sovereign-AI and data-centre projects.

Japanese rates move the yen and global funding flows, which hit richly valued AI stocks when carry trades unwind.

The industry breakdown shows how much of growth came from information and data-processing sectors.

Executive Order 17-2026 stops permit processing for qualified data centres, including the $5B Landover Mall campus; earlier holds were extended three times.

SB 6 requires the commission to change how wholesale transmission charges are allocated, which sets part of the grid cost large data-centre loads pay.

Google doubles the paid rate of its Flash tier, the second scheduled Gemini price rise in a month.

Members elected in the 3 November midterms take their seats, resetting committee control over chip-export, AI and appropriations bills.

Last payrolls report before the January Fed meeting; also the 2026 year-end jobs count for AI-heavy sectors.

December sales complete TSMC's Q4 2026 revenue picture ahead of its quarterly results and 2027 capex guidance.

The suspended port-fee and shipbuilding measures are one of the four truce terms timed to lapse together in January unless the two sides extend them.

Without another extension, the 178 excluded product lines would face the additional Section 301 duties again.

If not extended again, Entity List restrictions would extend to companies at least 50% owned by listed entities, widening the set of buyers that need licences for US chips.

MOFCOM-GACC Announcement No. 58 keeps six 2025 export-control announcements, including No. 62 on rare-earth technologies, suspended only to 10 January 2027.

Governor-elect Hinojosa has called for pausing data centres until protections are in place; the session that could legislate it opens here and is scheduled to end 31 May.

Last inflation print before the January Fed meeting; electronics and memory-driven prices sit inside it.

She has said she will declare a high-cost emergency and freeze electricity rates on taking office, and has called for a data-centre pause, in the state with ERCOT's large-load queue.

Japan's first 2027 decision with a new outlook; yen moves feed into global AI equity funding.

First Fed decision of 2027; it sets borrowing costs for AI infrastructure bonds and loans priced in the new year.

First full-year 2026 read on how much investment in equipment, software and data centres added to US growth.

Comes with a full forecast update, including the Bank's view of AI investment in UK growth.

First ECB decision of 2027 for European AI infrastructure financing.

Closes the 2026 productivity record that the AI-payoff debate leans on.

January payrolls set the labour backdrop the Fed carries into its March meeting.

First 2027 inflation reading; it shapes the rate path priced into AI credit after the January meeting.

Non-founder directors, officers and employees can sell up to 316 million shares from the first trading day, adding supply to the 825 million-share float.

A scheduled release of up to 299 million more shares; by day 76 the stages total up to 1,612 million shares, 1.95x the offer (our arithmetic).

A scheduled release of up to 299 million more shares; by day 76 the stages total up to 1,612 million shares, 1.95x the offer (our arithmetic).

A scheduled release of up to 349 million more shares; by day 76 the stages total up to 1,612 million shares, 1.95x the offer (our arithmetic).

A scheduled release of up to 349 million more shares; by day 76 the stages total up to 1,612 million shares, 1.95x the offer (our arithmetic).

The largest early release in the table is tied to Anthropic's first public annual results, not to a calendar day; it may fall inside or after this window.

Meta, Google/YouTube and TikTok sued on 4 November to block the law, which sets penalties of up to $50,000 per affected minor for a knowing violation.

What happened: BLS reported CPI-U up 0.4% in October 2026 (0.6% in September) and core CPI up 0.3%; BLS could not publish most 12-month changes because October 2025 data were not collected.

Inflation above the Fed's goal raises the odds of a December hike, lifting the cost of capital for the AI build-out.

What happened: Anthropic's S-1/A No. 2 set an estimated range of $70-$78 a share, with 801,351,354 shares sold by the company and 23,648,646 by selling stockholders.

The size of the offering tests how much public equity capital the AI build-out can absorb in one deal.

What happened: BIS extended the suspension of the affiliates rule to 10 Jan 2027 (FR 9 Nov), and USTR on 10 Nov suspended the Section 301 shipbuilding action to 10 Jan 2027 and extended 178 tariff exclusions.

Short truce extensions keep chip-related export and tariff terms on a two-month clock for AI supply chains.

What happened: Nvidia's board said on 8 Nov it is opening an independent investigation into reporting that Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort; it said it had no reason to believe secrets were compromised.

Lawmakers have cited the reporting in calls for tighter China chip rules, and the probe opened nine days before Nvidia's results.

What happened: BLS reported nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October 2026 and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1%.

A steady labour market with elevated inflation keeps a Fed hike on the table, which feeds into AI borrowing costs.

What happened: CNBC reported on 6 Nov that CoreWeave's 9.625% 2032 bond yielded above 16% and Nvidia's CDS had risen 76% in a month to about 139bp, citing Deutsche Bank data.

Higher yields and default-protection costs on AI borrowers raise the price of the debt that funds data-centre capacity.

What happened: The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% at its 5 November meeting (from 3.75% in September).

A rate rise in a major economy raises the cost of capital for AI build-outs as other central banks weigh hikes.

What happened: Nvidia closed at $181.60 on 5 Nov 2026 versus $200.13 on 4 Nov, down about 9.3% (our arithmetic from Nasdaq closing prices).

A sharp fall in AI equity values tightens the equity window that AI builders and IPO candidates rely on for funding.

What happened: Reuters reported on 5 Nov that Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, who beat Greg Abbott, said Texas will pass laws on data centres and should stop current activity until protections exist.

Texas holds a large share of the planned US data-centre pipeline, so a state pause would hit build timelines.

What happened: Meta priced $15.0B of senior notes due 2031-2056 on 3 Nov 2026, with coupons from 5.850% to 7.500% and spreads of T+110 to T+220bp.

Hyperscaler bond issuance is now a main funding channel for AI capex, and its spreads show what lenders charge.

What happened: AP's tally as updated 12 Nov showed Democrats with 55 Senate seats, 255 House seats and 28 governorships, against 44, 168 and 20 for Republicans.

A change in control of Congress and key state governments shifts the policy setting for data centres, energy and chip rules.

What happened: Ballotpedia reports voters favoured limiting data-centre development in 40 of 41 local measures on 3 Nov 2026, including five full bans.

Local bans and pauses can delay or cancel planned AI campuses, mostly in Ohio, which held about half the measures.

What happened: TechCrunch reported that Leading the Future's arms spent $4.8M backing a losing SC Senate candidate, while its Democratic arm backed winner Jared Moskowitz; Anthropic-backed Public First had mixed results.

The results show how far AI-industry money can shape who writes AI rules in Congress.

What happened: Oracle agreed on 2 Nov to sell 86,206,897 shares ($10B) and $10B of notes in five series with coupons of 7.000%-8.650%; both offerings closed on 4 Nov.

Oracle used its full stated capital-markets limit in one day to fund AI cloud capacity, at coupons up to 8.65%.

What happened: Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince witnessed four agreements between Abu Dhabi entities and OpenAI on 2 Nov 2026, including an ADNOC-G42 (Inception42)-OpenAI deployment deal.

Gulf state deals tie sovereign capital and government adoption to a US frontier lab.

What happened: Korea's trade ministry reported October 2026 semiconductor exports of $56.44B (+259.4%) and total exports of $115.3B (+93.7%).

Korean memory exports are a real-time read of AI hardware demand and now drive Korea's trade balance.

What happened: Quad foreign ministers, meeting in Atlanta on 31 Oct 2026, said they intend to provide over $85M of assistance for access to trusted SI, including a Quad SI Accelerator.

The US and partners are using aid to steer Indo-Pacific countries toward trusted AI supply chains.

What happened: Amazon reported AWS sales up 39.3%, Q3 purchases of property and equipment of $77.259B, and kept its 2026 cash capex outlook at about $220B.

Amazon is the largest single capex spender, so its full-year guide anchors the AI infrastructure spending total.

What happened: The 20th Central Committee's Fifth Plenum adopted a decision on strict Party governance on 29 Oct 2026, published by Xinhua on 1 Nov.

The plenum sets Beijing's political priorities, including the Party's role inside companies such as tech firms.

What happened: The FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.75%-4% by a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a 25bp hike.

The policy rate sets the base cost of the debt that hyperscalers, neoclouds and Oracle are raising to fund AI capex.

What happened: Alphabet reported Q3 revenue up 25% to $127.6B, purchases of property and equipment of $51.355B and free cash flow of -$9.065B.

Alphabet's capex exceeding operating cash flow shows the AI build-out now being funded beyond internal cash.

What happened: Microsoft reported revenue of $92.3B (+19%), Microsoft Cloud revenue of $63.9B and additions to property and equipment of $39.367B vs $19.394B a year earlier.

Microsoft's property additions roughly doubled year on year, a direct measure of AI data-centre spend.

What happened: Anthropic, PBC filed a public Form S-1 with the SEC on 26 Oct 2026, applying to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under 'ANT' with the price range left blank.

A frontier AI lab listing publicly opens its compute commitments and financing to public-market pricing.

What happened: Treasury issued a proposed rule on 22 Oct 2026 implementing the COINS Act, published in the Federal Register on 26 Oct with comments due 7 Dec 2026.

The rule would bar some US investment in AI developers in countries of concern such as China.

What happened: Meta reported Q3 2026 capital expenditures of $34.91B including finance-lease principal and narrowed its 2026 capex outlook to $135-145B.

Meta's capex run-rate is one of the largest single inputs to AI infrastructure demand and to its bond issuance.