Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and SpaceX have between them guided to about $241.6 billion to $270.0 billion of capital spending in the October-to-December quarter, by our arithmetic from the outlooks each gave with its third-quarter results. That is above the $228.3 billion the five reported for July to September on the same measures, also our arithmetic. Every figure here is a company’s own, not an analyst forecast.
Four of the five point to a bigger fourth quarter. Amazon is the exception: its outlook of about $220 billion for 2026, after $175.670 billion in the first nine months, leaves about $44.3 billion to $47.8 billion for the quarter, against $77.259 billion in the third. Added together, the five companies’ 2026 outlooks come to about $803 billion to $828 billion, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Capex and Depreciation
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on capex and depreciation. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss these companies’ outlooks.
The key insight: By our arithmetic, the fourth-quarter outlooks of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and SpaceX add up to $241.6 billion to $270.0 billion, above the $228.3 billion they reported for the third quarter, with Amazon the only one whose outlook implies a smaller quarter.
Amazon wrote in its 29 October release: “We continue to expect 2026 cash capital expenditures to be approximately $220 billion.” Its cash flow statement shows $175.670 billion of purchases of property and equipment in the first nine months, $77.259 billion of it in the third quarter, and $3.482 billion of proceeds from sales and incentives over the nine months.
Amazon’s free cash flow measure uses purchases net of those proceeds. Taking $220 billion as the full year leaves about $44.3 billion for the fourth quarter on gross purchases, or about $47.8 billion net of proceeds, our arithmetic. Either way it is about 37% to 43% below the third quarter.
Alphabet kept its 2026 range of $195 billion to $205 billion, chief financial officer Anat Ashkenazi said on the 28 October call. Its release shows $131.953 billion of purchases of property and equipment in the first nine months and $51.355 billion in the third quarter. That leaves about $63.0 billion to $73.0 billion for the fourth quarter, 23% to 42% above the third, by our arithmetic.
Microsoft’s chief financial officer Amy Hood said in her prepared remarks: “In Q2, we expect CapEx spend will be over $50 billion. Therefore, for the calendar year, spend should be approximately $170 billion due to the 3P capacity delays noted earlier.” Microsoft’s second fiscal quarter is October to December. It had put calendar 2026 at about $175 billion in July, as we reported.
Microsoft’s capex for July to September was $45.2 billion, including $7.4 billion of finance leases, which it counts at full principal value when a lease starts; cash paid for property and equipment was $39.4 billion. On its own measure, “over $50 billion” is at least 11% more than the third quarter, by our arithmetic.
Meta anticipates 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, of $135 billion to $145 billion, narrowed from $130 billion to $145 billion, its release says. Its cash flow statement shows $83.055 billion of purchases and $2.769 billion of finance lease principal over nine months, $85.824 billion in all. That leaves $49.2 billion to $59.2 billion for the fourth quarter, against $34.91 billion in the third, by our arithmetic.
SpaceX gave its quarter directly. Bret Johnsen said on the company’s 20 October webcast: “we expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to now be in the range of $35 billion to $40 billion for this quarter.” Third-quarter capex was $19.6 billion and nine-month purchases of property, plant and equipment $48.069 billion, its 10-Q shows. The guide is 1.8 to 2.0 times the third quarter, and puts SpaceX’s 2026 at about $83.1 billion to $88.1 billion, our arithmetic.
Capital spending reported for July to September 2026 against what each company guided, or its full-year outlook implies, for October to December: Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Meta and SpaceX. Implied fourth-quarter figures are the 2026 outlook minus nine-month spending, our arithmetic; dots show range midpoints. Measures differ: Microsoft counts finance leases, Meta adds finance lease principal. Sources: the companies’ Q3 releases, calls and filings.Animated: quarterly cash paid for property and equipment at Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and Meta combined, first quarter of 2024 to third quarter of 2026, from the FourWeekMBA Big Tech AI Capex Tracker (their SEC filings). Sums are our arithmetic; finance leases are excluded.
Adding Up the Five
On the measures each company uses, the five spent $228.3 billion in the third quarter: Amazon $77.3 billion, Alphabet $51.4 billion, Microsoft $45.2 billion, Meta $34.9 billion and SpaceX $19.6 billion, by our arithmetic. The fourth-quarter outlooks add up to $241.6 billion to $270.0 billion, counting Microsoft’s “over $50 billion” at $50 billion, so the low end is a floor.
That is about 6% to 18% more than the third quarter. SpaceX’s share of the five rises from 8.6% of third-quarter spending to about 14.5% to 14.8% of the fourth-quarter outlook, and Amazon’s falls from about a third to under a fifth, our arithmetic.
For the full year, Amazon’s $220 billion, Alphabet’s $195 billion to $205 billion, Microsoft’s $170 billion, Meta’s $135 billion to $145 billion and SpaceX’s implied $83.1 billion to $88.1 billion add up to about $803 billion to $828 billion. That sum is ours; no company guides for the group.
The quarterly climb behind it is in our Big Tech AI capex tracker, built from SEC filings. Cash paid for property and equipment at Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta together went from $44.3 billion in the first quarter of 2024 to $201.9 billion in the third quarter of 2026. That was 2.1 times the $97.3 billion of a year earlier, by our arithmetic.
What They Said About 2027
Alphabet’s Ashkenazi said on the call: “We continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly” in 2027, adding that the company would give further details on its fourth-quarter call. Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy said Amazon expects “to spend meaningfully more in 2027”, according to a machine transcript of its call.
Hood said: “In the second half of the fiscal year, we currently expect CapEx spend to accelerate”, which for Microsoft is January to June 2027. Elon Musk said on SpaceX’s webcast he was “fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 GW of compute online in 2027”, a measure of power, not dollars.
Meta’s release gives no 2027 capital spending range in the passages we read. None of the five put a dollar figure on 2027 capex in the material we read.
The Structural Read
As we read it, the outlooks move the mix of spending as well as the total: SpaceX goes from 8.6% of the five’s third-quarter capex to about 14.5% to 14.8% of the fourth-quarter outlook, while Amazon goes from about a third to under a fifth, by our arithmetic.
As we read it, the sum is a floor-and-range figure rather than a forecast: Microsoft’s number is “over $50 billion”, and the Amazon, Alphabet and Meta quarters are what their full-year outlooks leave, by our arithmetic.
As we read it, the companies have spoken about 2027 in direction only: Alphabet and Amazon said spending goes higher and Microsoft that it accelerates in the first half of 2027, with no dollar figure in the material we read.
Amy Hood, Microsoft CFO, FY27 Q1 earnings call (official transcript)
“In Q2, we expect CapEx spend will be over $50 billion”
Three Implications
FOR SUPPLIERS OF CHIPS AND SERVERS The five companies’ own outlooks add up to $241.6 billion to $270.0 billion of capex for October to December, by our arithmetic.
FOR BOND AND STOCK INVESTORS Oracle, Alphabet and Meta lined up bond sales on 2 November, as we reported, while the five’s 2026 outlooks add up to about $803 billion to $828 billion, by our arithmetic.
FOR READERS OF FORECASTS The figures here are the companies’ own outlooks, measured in different ways, and are not comparable one-for-one with analyst estimates.
The framework puts it this way: “The thesis: the capex race is no longer a corporate spending cycle.”
As we read it, the outlooks the five gave in October sit within that frame: by our arithmetic, their fourth-quarter guides add up to $241.6 billion to $270.0 billion, with SpaceX giving a quarterly capex range of its own. The framework was published in May 2026 and does not discuss these results.
The five do not measure capex the same way. Microsoft counts finance leases at full value when they start, Meta adds finance lease principal payments, and Alphabet, SpaceX and Amazon’s nine-month figures are cash purchases of property and equipment. The sums are our arithmetic across those measures, not a figure any company reports.
The fourth-quarter numbers for Amazon, Alphabet and Meta assume each lands on its full-year outlook, which companies can change, as Meta and Microsoft did this year. The Alphabet and Amazon call quotes come from transcripts made from the webcast audio, not from the companies.
A post on X on 2 November attributed combined forecasts for the five companies through 2028 to analysts’ consensus. We could not find the original research, so this piece does not use those figures and does not compare the companies’ outlooks with analyst estimates.
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The outlooks Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and SpaceX gave point to more spending in the October-to-December quarter than in the one before, the companies’ figures show, and Amazon’s implies less. Together that is about $241.6 billion to $270.0 billion, above the $228.3 billion of the third quarter, by our arithmetic. Alphabet and Amazon have said 2027 spending will be higher and Microsoft that it accelerates in the first half of 2027, without a dollar figure yet.
A note on sourcing. Outlooks and quarterly figures come from Amazon’s and Meta’s third-quarter earnings releases filed with the SEC, Alphabet’s earnings release and call, Microsoft’s official transcript of its 28 October prepared remarks, and SpaceX’s edited webcast transcript of 20 October and its 10-Q. The Alphabet and Amazon call lines are from transcripts made from the audio. Tracker figures come from our Big Tech AI Capex & Cash Tracker, built from SEC filings and last updated on 1 November. Implied quarters, sums, shares and percentages are our arithmetic. We did not contact the companies.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
