Meta has told investors it expects 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, of $130 billion to $145 billion, according to its second-quarter release of 29 July 2026. Its releases put first-half spending at $19.84 billion in the first quarter and $31.08 billion in the second, or $50.92 billion by our arithmetic.
By our arithmetic, landing inside that range means spending $79.1 billion to $94.1 billion between July and December, or about $39.5 billion to $47.0 billion a quarter, against the $31.08 billion Meta reported for the second quarter. Meta reports third-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, with a call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific time, according to its investor relations notice.
Business Pill · CAPEX AND DEPRECIATION
A short explainer on capex and depreciation: why spending on assets shows up in cash before it shows up in earnings. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about any company in this story.
The key insight: As we read it, Meta’s own numbers frame the figures to compare on Wednesday: the bottom of its $130 billion to $145 billion range already requires about $39.5 billion a quarter for the rest of 2026, by our arithmetic, against $31.08 billion in the second quarter, the highest of the five quarters shown, when free cash flow was $784 million.
Meta first gave a 2026 range in its fourth-quarter 2025 release: $115 billion to $135 billion, “with year-over-year growth driven by increased investment to support our Meta Superintelligence Labs efforts and core business.”
In its first-quarter 2026 release Meta raised the range to $125 billion to $145 billion. It said: “This reflects our expectations for higher component pricing this year and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs to support future year capacity.”
In its second-quarter release Meta said it now expects $130 billion to $145 billion, “narrowed from our prior outlook of $125-145 billion.” The floor of the range has moved up $15 billion since January, by our arithmetic.
Meta’s quarterly capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, from $17.01 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to $31.08 billion in the second quarter of 2026. The last bar is our arithmetic: the per-quarter pace for July to December that would put full-year 2026 spending inside Meta’s $130 billion to $145 billion range, assuming an even split. Source: Meta quarterly earnings releases.
Five Quarters of Spending
Meta’s releases give capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, of $17.01 billion in the second quarter of 2025, $19.37 billion in the third, $22.14 billion in the fourth, $19.84 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and $31.08 billion in the second. Full-year 2025 spending was $72.22 billion.
Meta’s guidance on 2026 grew release by release. In July 2025 it expected “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026.” In October 2025 it said “capital expenditures dollar growth will be notably larger in 2026 than 2025.” By our arithmetic, the current range implies 2026 spending of 1.8 to 2.0 times the 2025 figure.
Our arithmetic on Meta’s own figures: its $130 billion to $145 billion 2026 range minus $50.92 billion of first-half spending, with the range’s path from January to July. Source: Meta Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings releases.
Cash Flow, Debt and Costs
In the second quarter of 2026, cash flow from operating activities was $31.86 billion and free cash flow was $784 million, the release said. A year earlier, Meta reported free cash flow of $8.55 billion for the second quarter of 2025. Meta’s first-quarter 2026 free cash flow was $12.39 billion.
Long-term debt was $83.66 billion at 30 June 2026, according to the second-quarter release, against $58.74 billion at 31 December 2025 in the fourth-quarter release. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $90.26 billion at 30 June 2026.
Total costs and expenses were $42.03 billion in the second quarter, up 55% from a year earlier, including $2.40 billion of charges related to legal proceedings and $1.18 billion of severance expenses, the release said. The release said Meta expects full-year 2026 total expenses of $165 billion to $169 billion.
The Figures to Watch on Wednesday
In its second-quarter release, Meta said it expects third-quarter 2026 revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion. Second-quarter revenue was $60.80 billion, up 28% from a year earlier. Meta also said it continues to expect 2026 operating income above its 2025 operating income.
The figures to compare, as we read it: third-quarter capital expenditures against the $39.5 billion to $47.0 billion per-quarter pace our arithmetic gives; whether the $130 billion to $145 billion range changes; free cash flow; and anything Meta says about 2027. Meta’s second-quarter 2025 release included a statement on 2026 spending.
Update, 19 October: A Meta Treasury Executive on Financing the Buildout
Meta’s director of corporate finance, Michael Hart, told the Berkeley Forum on Corporate Governance on 14 October that it is “strategically incredibly important that we secure access to this [compute] capacity as quickly as possible and in as large a quantity as we can get,” CFO Brew reported. He said the structure of the $27 billion joint venture with Blue Owl Capital for Meta’s Richland Parish, Louisiana campus “gives us a lot of long-term flexibility,” but “doesn’t make a ton of sense for a 50-megawatt” data center, and that Meta takes “a dollar cost averaging approach” to its debt.
The Structural Read
As we read it, the range has only moved one way this year: the floor went from $115 billion in January to $125 billion in April and $130 billion in July, while the top stopped at $145 billion. Meta tied the April increase to “higher component pricing” first and data center costs second.
As we read it, the second quarter shows how the spending lands in the cash flow statement: operating cash flow of $31.86 billion against capital expenditures of $31.08 billion left $784 million of free cash flow, Meta’s own non-GAAP measure.
As we read it, the balance sheet moved alongside: long-term debt rose from $58.74 billion at the end of 2025 to $83.66 billion at the end of June, the releases show. The releases do not link the debt to any specific project.
Meta, Q1 2026 earnings release, on raising its 2026 capex range
“This reflects our expectations for higher component pricing this year and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs to support future year capacity.”
Three Implications
META’S CASH FLOW Second-quarter free cash flow was $784 million, against $8.55 billion a year earlier, according to Meta’s releases.
COMPONENT PRICING Meta named “higher component pricing” as the main reason for April’s higher range, without naming the components.
WEDNESDAY’S NUMBERS By our arithmetic, a third-quarter figure below $39.5 billion would leave more than half of the second-half requirement for the fourth quarter, unless the range changes.
The framework puts it this way: “This is not a continuation of the cloud capex cycle. This is a different cycle, with different physics.”
As we read it, Meta’s guidance path is one company’s version of that cycle: a 2026 range of 1.8 to 2.0 times 2025 spending, by our arithmetic, revised twice in six months. The framework was published in May 2026, before Meta’s July range.
What Is Not Established
Meta has not said how its 2026 spending splits between the third and fourth quarters, and the even split above is our arithmetic, not a Meta figure. Meta can change its range, as it did in April and July. No analyst estimates are used here. The free-cash-flow figure is Meta’s own non-GAAP measure as defined in its releases.
Business Engineer Framework
The AI Capex Map & The State of AI Hyperscalers
A Business Engineer framework on the 2026 compute capex cycle, who is spending and who is underwriting it.
Meta’s own range, $130 billion to $145 billion, and its first-half spending of $50.92 billion imply $79.1 billion to $94.1 billion of capital expenditures in the second half of 2026, by our arithmetic. Meta reports third-quarter results on 21 October.
A note on sourcing. Every figure and quotation about Meta here is from Meta’s own quarterly earnings releases (second quarter 2025 to second quarter 2026) and its notice of the third-quarter results date, read in full on investor.atmeta.com. The first-half total, the second-half requirement, the per-quarter pace and the multiples are our arithmetic on those figures; the even quarterly split is our assumption, not Meta’s. The 19 October update quotes Meta’s Michael Hart as reported by CFO Brew (19 October 2026), from his remarks at the Berkeley Forum on Corporate Governance on 14 October. No analyst estimates are used. Nothing here is a forecast, and nothing here is financial or investment advice.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
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