THE BUSINESS ENGINEER · AI SUPERCYCLE DASHBOARD · UPDATED 12 NOVEMBER 2026
The AI supercycle is a loop: geopolitics shapes the economy, the economy funds AI, AI reshapes the economy and becomes state power. These indicators track each arrow of that loop with numbers from our own trackers and primary filings; each card links to its source data.
Geopolitics → the economy
Export rules, sanctions and state action that set the conditions for AI.
US-China chip events in the Nvidia-China timeline, last 30 days
5 events
+5 vs 2026-10-12
as of 2026-11-09 · source data
Nvidia revenue from China-headquartered customers, share of total (latest quarter)
8.2 % of revenue
+2.6 vs 2026-05-20
as of 2026-08-26 · source
Government actions restricting AI firms, deals or data centres (graph), last 30 days
69 distinct government->target pairs
as of 2026-11-12 · FourWeekMBA AI database
The economy → AI
Money, markets and credit conditions that fund or squeeze the build-out.
AI stocks total market value (14 US-listed names)
$28.35T
$-2.83T vs 2026-10-12
as of 2026-11-11 · source data
CoreWeave 2032 bond yield minus Oracle 2032 bond yield
7.6 percentage points
as of 2026-10-14 · FourWeekMBA AI database
AI → the economy
Capex, debt, data centres and jobs: where AI shows up in the real economy.
Big Tech capex as a share of operating cash flow, top five
116 % of OCF
+18.6 vs 2026Q2
as of 2026Q3 · source data
Big Tech off-balance-sheet commitments, five combined
$3,218.8B
+$2,425.6B vs 2025-Q3
as of 2026-Q3 · FourWeekMBA AI database
Debt raised by AI-linked companies in 2026 so far (FT estimate)
$466.0B
+$365.0B vs 2025 same period
as of 2026-10 · FourWeekMBA AI database
US private data-centre construction spending (SAAR)
$96.5B annual rate
+$7.7B vs 2026-08
as of 2026-09 · source
Open roles across the AI company index
16,371 open roles (158 companies)
as of 2026-11-08 · source data
Metaculus community median date for the first general AI system
18 Sep 2030
as of 2026-11-09 · source data
AI → geopolitics
Sovereign deals, China's share, local politics and security: AI as state power.
State money and compute deals in AI (graph), last 30 days
16 distinct government->counterparty pairs
as of 2026-11-12 · FourWeekMBA AI database
Non-US sites among the 10 largest frontier AI data centres (H100e)
2 of 10 sites
+0 vs 2026-10-31
as of 2026-11-12 · FourWeekMBA AI database
Chinese labs' share of OpenRouter requests (named top authors)
47.2 % of requests
+1.5 vs 2026-10-31
as of 2026-11-12 · source
Local data-centre ballot measures where the restrict side leads (3 Nov 2026 elections)
40 of 41 measures
as of 2026-11-04 · source
AI super PAC independent expenditures, 2026 cycle to date (safety + industry networks)
$81.3M
as of 2026-11-02 · FourWeekMBA AI database
Security incidents at AI and developer platforms (graph), last 30 days
10 companies with an incident
as of 2026-11-12 · FourWeekMBA AI database
The story behind these numbers, connected every week: This Week in the AI Supercycle by The Business Engineer.