FOURWEEKMBA TRACKER ยท FROM THE NEWSROOM ยท UPDATED 2 NOVEMBER 2026
Free to share with a link to this page. Terms from Anthropic’s and SpaceX’s S-1 filings, CoreWeave’s 8-K and reports by CNBC and Bloomberg; the sum and median are our arithmetic.
The short version: AI labs now rent most of their compute on long contracts they cannot easily cancel. Anthropic’s S-1 shows commitments of $114.5B to Google, $110B to Amazon and $44.9B to Microsoft, $269.4B together, running to 2033-2036 and payable “regardless of actual usage”. At the other end, Reflection AI rents Nvidia GB300 chips from SpaceX for $150 million a month and can walk away on 90 days’ notice after the first three months (CNBC). This page tracks 29 contracts, leases and guarantees between AI buyers and the companies that supply their compute, with the amount, term, size, monthly price and exit terms where they are disclosed.
Only 15 of the 29 rows have a disclosed amount; the rest show “โ” with the reason. Amounts are what the filing or report states: minimum commitments, caps (“up to”) and reported figures are labelled as such and never filled in. Data as of 2 Nov 2026.
Renting, not buying. A lab that needs GPUs or TPUs signs with a hyperscaler (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle), a neocloud (CoreWeave, Nscale, Lambda, Nebius and other GPU-only clouds) or, now, another AI company with spare capacity (SpaceX’s Colossus). It pays per month or against a total commitment.
Commitments are take-or-pay. Anthropic must spend at least $110B at Amazon between May 2026 and April 2036 and pay the difference as a “true-up” if it falls short. Take-or-pay explained.
Fees often start only on delivery. Under Anthropic’s Nscale and Lambda agreements, fees accrue only as capacity is delivered and accepted, so a late data centre delays the bill, not the obligation.
Exits are narrow, or very short. Most big commitments are non-cancellable except for the provider’s uncured breach. The rentals from SpaceX are the exception: either side can leave on 90 days’ notice once the first months pass.
Someone else often carries the risk. Backstops and guarantees let lenders fund the buildings: Nvidia agreed to buy any CoreWeave capacity left unsold through April 2032; Nvidia, Google and Broadcom guarantee leases or loans behind data centres their customers will use. How the off-balance-sheet structures work.
Much of it sits off the balance sheet. Leases signed but not yet started are disclosed only in the notes: $1,303.8B at Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon and Alphabet on their latest 10-Qs (our arithmetic, table below).
Every contract, its price and its terms
29 rows (on a phone, swipe the table sideways). Read each row as “buyer rents from provider”. Numbers in brackets link to the sources for that row: filings first, then reports. “Reported” amounts come from the named outlet and are not confirmed in a filing. Chip purchase orders, power contracts and grants are not included.
Who rents from whom
Date
Amount
Term
MW / chips
Price per month
Exit terms, guarantees
Sources
OpenAI rents fromMicrosoft (Azure) HyperscalersCloud commitment ยท Signed
Incremental Azure services OpenAI contracted to purchase under the 28 Oct 2025 agreement (Microsoft 10-Q, subsequent-event note).
Anthropic rents fromGoogle (Cloud) HyperscalersCloud commitment ยท Signed
Separately, Anthropic estimates $125.0B to $150.0B for more TPU compute from TPU providers including Google, delivered 2028-2031, not in this commitment.
Mar 2026
at least about $114.5B
April 2026 to July 2033, regardless of actual usage
Google TPUs
โ
Non-cancellable except for Google's uncured material breach; a true-up is owed if spend falls short
Anthropic rents fromFluidstack NeocloudsData-centre build partnership ยท Announced
Anthropic's $50 billion investment in US computing infrastructure, building data centres with Fluidstack in Texas and New York. A programme value, not a contract value: left out of the charts.
Anthropic rents fromSpaceX (SpaceXAI, Colossus) AI labs selling computeGPU capacity rental ยท Signed
Update not yet in our database: Anthropic's own S-1 puts all its SpaceXAI arrangements at up to $120.5B, about $3.1B a month once all capacity is delivered (expected December 2026), cancellable on 90 days' notice after non-cancellable periods ending January and March 2027.
May 2026
up to $45B (WSJ) reported
Through May 2029; capacity ramped in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee
More than 300 MW (Anthropic, 6 May 2026); About 325,000 Nvidia GPUs across Colossus and Colossus II
$1.25B
Either side can end it on 90 days' notice after the first three months (SpaceX S-1)
Anthropic rents fromNscale NeocloudsGPU capacity rental ยท Signed
Anthropic is up to about $44.6B of Nscale's $103.4B total contract value (Nscale S-1).
Aug 2026
up to about $44.6B
Into 2033; fees accrue only as capacity is delivered and accepted
About 460 MW at the Monarch campus, West Virginia (CNBC); Nvidia Vera Rubin, online end of 2027 (CNBC)
โ
Anthropic can cancel if Nscale misses delivery or availability requirements; Nscale must use best efforts to secure financing
Nvidia is in talks to give Nscale billions of dollars in credit guarantees for the site's debt (Reuters, Bloomberg, 29 Oct); Anthropic has a right of first refusal on Monarch's third building (Bloomberg)
Anthropic rents fromLambda NeocloudsGPU capacity rental ยท Signed
Agreements signed in May, June and August 2026 (S-1).
May 2026
โ Our database holds only the WSJ's combined figure: up to $86B for Nscale and Lambda together. Anthropic's S-1 gives about $41.3B for Lambda (not yet stored as a contract fact).
Into 2034 (through 2034, WSJ)
Nvidia GPUs
โ
Either side can end the August 2026 agreement (about $34.9B) if Lambda does not secure the facility lease in time
Google guarantees Anthropic's lease and power-payment commitments if it defaults, limited to the minimum lenders required; Google expected to take about a 20% equity stake in the project
OpenAI (tenant) rents fromSB Energy (Ohio) LandlordsLease guarantee ยท Signed (10-Q)
Nvidia's 10-Q says 'on behalf of a customer'; The Information named OpenAI as the tenant.
Aug 2026
โ The figure is a guarantee cap, not a rent: see the guarantee column.
โ
About 4.25 GW, Pike County, Ohio
โ
Nvidia guarantees capped at $105B for the land, power and shell build-out; the site must host Nvidia AI infrastructure exclusively, with limited exceptions
Two kinds of number sit side by side here. Filings give minimums (Anthropic’s “at least” commitments to Google, Amazon and Microsoft) or caps (Nscale’s “up to” figures); reports give headline values (the WSJ’s “more than $160 billion” for Anthropic’s lease of Google chips through Broadcom). Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion a month under the SpaceX filing, 8.3 times Reflection’s $150 million (our arithmetic).
Who supplies the compute
Hyperscalers hold most of the disclosed dollars because their contracts are the longest and the only ones disclosed as hard minimums. Neoclouds sign more of the deals, many with no amount published, and depend on lenders, which is why guarantees from Nvidia and others sit behind several of them. See the cash and debt behind them on neocloud balance sheets.
Leases and backstops in the filings
Company totals from the latest 10-Q of each company, not single contracts. These are the obligations behind the data centres the contracts above run in.
Company
What
Amount
Detail
As of
Microsoft
Leases signed, not yet started (mostly data centres)
Lock-in. Anthropic is on the hook for around $450 billion of cloud computing agreements over the next seven to ten years, the bulk of them noncancelable, the Wall Street Journal reported. Source
Pay even if unused. Anthropic's S-1 commits it to spend at Google, Amazon and Microsoft 'regardless of actual usage', and to pay Google and Amazon the difference as a true-up if spend falls short. Source
Short exits. SpaceX's compute contracts can be terminated on about 90 days' notice, Reuters reported; the SpaceX S-1 says either party may end Anthropic's agreements on 90 days' notice after three months. Source
Cash up front. Cloud providers moved to require multiyear contracts with upfront costs 'often as high as 30%', sometimes with guarantors, the WSJ reported. Source
Not enough backstop to go round. SemiAnalysis estimates Nvidia can support up to about 46 GW of capacity with backstops, against about 240 GW of global additions coming in 2026-2030 (analyst estimate). Source
Vendor support has a cap. Jensen Huang wrote that Nvidia 'may provide a residual-value support mechanism for up to 25% of an opportunity, assessed carefully on a project-by-project basis.' Source
Guarantees off the books.Meta's 10-Q calls a payment under its $41,493 million of residual value guarantees 'not probable' and records no liability for them. Source
Delivery is slipping. Digital Realty's signing-to-commencement lag rose to 17 months for Q3 2026 signings from nine months for Q2 (company filing). Source
Local opposition. Anthropic's S-1 lists state, local and municipal data-centre moratoriums, considered or approved, among the risks to securing compute. Source
FAQ
Who rents the most AI compute?
Among disclosed contracts, OpenAI’s $250 billion Azure commitment (Microsoft 10-Q) is the largest single figure, and Anthropic has the most contracts: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, SpaceX, Nscale, Lambda, Broadcom, Volta, Fluidstack, a data-centre lease in Nova Scotia and talks for another in Alberta. The WSJ reported Anthropic is on the hook for around $450 billion of cloud agreements over seven to ten years.
What is a neocloud?
A cloud company that rents out GPUs for AI and little else: CoreWeave, Nscale, Lambda, Nebius, IREN, Firmus and others in the table. They usually borrow to buy the chips, so their contracts often come with guarantees or backstops for the lenders.
Why do labs sign contracts they cannot cancel?
To secure capacity years ahead of delivery. Providers ask for long commitments before they build: the WSJ reported cloud providers moved to multiyear contracts with upfront costs often as high as 30%. In return the lab gets capacity that would otherwise go to a rival.
How does Reflection’s SpaceX deal compare?
It is small and short: $150 million a month from 1 July 2026 through 2029, about $6.3 billion if it runs the full term (CNBC), cancellable on 90 days’ notice after the first three months. Anthropic’s arrangement with SpaceX runs at $1.25 billion a month through May 2029 under SpaceX’s filing, with the same 90-day notice. Read our story on the Reflection deal.
What is a backstop?
A promise by a third party to pay or buy if the main customer does not. Nvidia agreed to buy CoreWeave’s unsold capacity through 2032 (initial value $6.3 billion); Alphabet reports $75.7 billion of data-centre backstop obligations in its latest 10-Q.
How often is this page updated?
Weekly. New contract, lease and guarantee facts logged by our newsroom are checked each week and added after review; quarterly 10-Qs update the filing totals. Every row keeps its sources.
Built by FourWeekMBA from our newsroom’s database of sourced facts (each row lists the facts it uses), the filings those facts link to (Anthropic and SpaceX S-1s, CoreWeave and Quanome 8-Ks, 10-Qs) and reports by the outlets named. Sums, shares, medians and ratios are our arithmetic. A missing amount is shown as “โ” and never estimated. New facts are reviewed weekly before they join the table.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
