TSMC Said to Weigh 3D DRAM for Nvidia; 3 Rivals Hold 88%

TSMC is considering producing 3D DRAM at Nvidia’s request, The Information reported on 6 November, according to relays of the report by ChainCatcher at 14:05 UTC, PANews and Wall St Engine on X. We could not read The Information’s article itself; the details below are as the relays give them.

The market TSMC would enter is concentrated: Samsung, SK hynix and Micron held 38%, 29% and 21% of third-quarter DRAM revenue on Counterpoint Research’s figures, as we reported, 88% together by our arithmetic.

Business Pill · Concentration

A one-minute explainer of concentration: what happens when a large share of a market sits with a few suppliers. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss TSMC, Nvidia or DRAM.

What Was Reported

ChainCatcher’s flash reads: “According to The Information, at the request of Nvidia (NVDA.O), TSMC (TSM.N) is considering producing 3D DRAM.” PANews wrote: “According to The Information, TSMC (TSM.N) is considering producing advanced memory chips.”

Wall St Engine’s post at 14:10 UTC says TSMC “has reportedly begun drawing up plans to manufacture advanced 3D DRAM chips as AI-driven memory shortages push chip designers to seek additional supply, per The Information”. It adds: “No production timeline has been set.”

What TSMC Is Said to Be Weighing

According to Wall St Engine’s summary of the report, “TSMC is considering building new fabs or converting an existing facility, but says its focus remains on its core logic foundry business.” We did not see TSMC’s own wording, and none of the relays quotes Nvidia.

The same post explains the technology: “Unlike conventional DRAM, 3D DRAM stacks memory cells vertically to increase density.” It says the move “could put TSMC in direct competition with Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.” Another relay, by All Day Stocks, says “Nvidia is reportedly seeking additional supply as AI-driven memory shortages intensify.”

The Market It Would Enter

Counterpoint Research put third-quarter DRAM revenue at nearly $200 billion, up 369% year on year, with Samsung at 38%, SK hynix at 29% and Micron at 21%, as we reported on 5 November. Applied to nearly $200 billion, the three shares come to roughly $176 billion, an upper-end approximation by our arithmetic.

Supply is tight across memory. TrendForce projects blended HBM prices to rise 121% year on year in 2027, as we reported, and its 2 November radar rated DRAM “Very Tight” at 19 weeks of lead time against 8 in a balanced market, as we reported. Bloomberg reported on 5 November that Micron suspended a $4.5 billion plant in Taiwan, as we reported.

Before the US Open

TSMC’s US-listed shares traded at $380.23 in pre-market trading at 9:20 a.m. New York time, 7.68% above the official 5 November close of $353.10, Nasdaq data show. Micron traded at $702.52, 7.03% above its $656.39 close. Both moves came during a broad pre-market rebound in chip stocks, as we reported; the relays do not link the share moves to the report, and these are pre-market prices, not closes.

Connecting the Coverage

Earlier: DRAM Revenue Rose 369% to Nearly $200B; Samsung Kept 38%, HBM Prices Seen Up 121% as SK Hynix Buyers Shift to 8-Hi, AI Server Parts Wait Up to 4.3x Longer as Nvidia GPUs Tighten and Micron Said to Pause $4.5B Taiwan Fab, 16% of a Year’s Capex. What is new here: a report that TSMC is weighing entry into memory production at Nvidia’s request.

The Structural Read

As we read the relays, the request is described as Nvidia’s and the supply problem as AI-driven memory shortages; none of the relays quotes Nvidia, and we did not see TSMC’s own statement.

As we read Counterpoint’s shares as we reported them, Samsung gained 5 points of DRAM revenue share in a year while SK hynix lost 4 and Micron 5, so the three incumbents’ combined 88% sits alongside CXMT’s rise to 9%.

As we read the pre-market prices, TSMC and Micron both traded about 7% above their 5 November closes during a broad chip rebound; the relays do not tie either move to the report.

Three Implications

FOR MEMORY BUYERS TrendForce rated DRAM Very Tight at 19 weeks of lead time on 2 November, as we reported; the relays say no 3D DRAM production timeline has been set.

FOR THE INCUMBENTS Wall St Engine says the move could put TSMC in direct competition with Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, which held 88% of third-quarter DRAM revenue on Counterpoint’s figures, by our arithmetic.

FOR READERS Whether TSMC proceeds, and where and when, is not established; we did not read The Information’s article.

The Business Engineer Lens

This story maps onto the Business Engineer framework The AI Supercycle.

The analysis says: “The job of any operator, investor, or builder is to know which layer they are operating inside and which layer the binding constraint is rotating toward next.”

As we read it, the report places memory, not logic, at the constraint Nvidia is reported to be trying to ease. The analysis does not discuss TSMC, Nvidia or 3D DRAM.

What Is Not Established

We did not read The Information’s article and rely on relays of it. Whether TSMC will proceed, where it would make 3D DRAM, how much it would invest and when production could start are not established; the relays say no timeline has been set. We did not see TSMC’s statement in full, Nvidia’s role beyond the reported request is not described, and we did not contact either company.

The Bottom Line

TSMC is weighing production of 3D DRAM at Nvidia’s request, The Information reported, according to relays, with no timeline set. The three incumbents it would compete with held 88% of third-quarter DRAM revenue on Counterpoint’s figures, by our arithmetic.