HBM prices are now catching up with conventional DRAM, Counterpoint Research said on 5 November, and TrendForce projects that the blended average selling price of HBM will rise 121% year on year in 2027. SK hynix told analysts on 28 October that some customers are moving to 8-high HBM stacks because supply is short.
TrendForce expects 8-high stacks to carry a price premium of roughly 10–20% per gigabit over 12-high stacks in 2027. By our arithmetic, that would put an 8-high stack at about 73–80% of a 12-high stack’s price, assuming the same capacity per DRAM die.
Business Pill · Take-or-Pay
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on take-or-pay contracts. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss HBM, DRAM or any company named here.
The key insight: TrendForce projects blended HBM prices to rise 121% year on year in 2027 and puts the per-gigabit premium on 8-high stacks at roughly 10–20%; by our arithmetic an 8-high stack would then cost about 73–80% of a 12-high stack, assuming the same capacity per die.
TrendForce said on 29 September that it had raised its 2027 HBM price outlook. It cites persistent supply constraints, a growing share of higher-priced HBM4 and the gradual ramp-up of HBM4e in the second half of 2027, and says blended ASP is now projected to jump 121% year on year.
TrendForce says GPU and ASIC manufacturers are considering reducing HBM capacity per device, driven “not by waning end-market demand but by limited HBM supply and quickly increasing system costs.” It expects the HBM market to remain supply-constrained in 2027.
Price of one HBM stack with a 12-high stack set at 100, at TrendForce’s 10–20% per-gigabit premium for 8-high stacks in 2027. Stack prices are our arithmetic and assume the same capacity per DRAM die.
The 8-High Arithmetic
Compared with 12-high modules, 8-high configurations use fewer DRAM dies, which lowers the cost per stack and the GPU bill of materials, TrendForce says. Each stack still needs one base die, so an 8-high stack spreads that cost over less capacity, and TrendForce puts its per-gigabit premium at roughly 10–20%.
By our arithmetic, an 8-high stack holds two-thirds of a 12-high stack’s bits if each die has the same capacity. At a 10% per-gigabit premium it would cost about 73% of a 12-high stack; at 20%, about 80%. TrendForce says 8-high configurations also let the same HBM bit output support more GPUs. SK hynix told analysts that some customers are moving to 8-high because supply is short, according to the Korean outlets we cited on 31 October.
Conventional DRAM in the Fourth Quarter
In a separate release on 30 September, TrendForce projected conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10–15% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026, a slower pace than earlier in the year, and NAND Flash contract prices to rise 15–20%.
TrendForce says server DRAM is expected to remain undersupplied in the fourth quarter, as cloud providers and server makers buy more RDIMMs for general servers supporting agentic AI workloads. It names enterprise SSDs as the only memory category where pricegrowth is expected to accelerate.
What Counterpoint Adds
Counterpoint says HBM’s share of DRAM revenue declined in the third quarter even though HBM revenue almost doubled, because DDR and LPDDR revenues grew 500% and nearly 400% year on year. Research director MS Hwang says: “HBM prices, which lagged commodity DRAM this year, are now catching up.”
Hwang adds that long-term agreements are supporting prices and that supply will stay tight because major new fabs will not start production until 2028. Counterpoint puts third-quarter DRAM revenue at nearly $200 billion.
Update, 5 Nov, 13:27Z: an auto supplier’s chip-price warning. German auto supplier Aumovio SE “warned semiconductor prices will surge next year as booming demand from artificial intelligence data centers gives chipmakers enhanced pricing powers,” Bloomberg reported. Bloomberg reported that the impact from the squeeze on supplies to the auto industry, barely noticeable so far, is set to “explode” in 2027, citing Claus Bauer, Aumovio’s interim head of finance, on a call with analysts.
Bloomberg’s headline describes “mind-boggling” chip-price rises, and the article’s page title refers to a “€1 billion hit from rising semiconductor costs”. We could read only the opening of the article, so we have not seen how that figure is defined, which chips it covers or who used the phrase “mind-boggling”. Aumovio uses semiconductors in products ranging from braking systems to vehicle computers, per Bloomberg’s photo caption.
As we read the two research firms together, Counterpoint’s third quarter and TrendForce’s 2027 outlook point the same way: conventional DRAM led this year, and HBM pricing is now catching up, in Counterpoint’s words.
As we read TrendForce’s 8-high note, a shorter stack lowers the price of each stack but raises the price of each gigabit, so buyers who shift trade capacity per GPU for more GPUs from the same supply.
As we read the fourth-quarter guide, TrendForce’s 10–15% contract rise for conventional DRAM is slower than earlier in the year, while server DRAM is still expected to be undersupplied.
MS Hwang, Research Director, Counterpoint Research
“HBM prices, which lagged commodity DRAM this year, are now catching up.”
Three Implications
FOR GPU AND ASIC MAKERS TrendForce says they are considering less HBM per device because of limited supply and rising system costs, not weaker demand.
FOR MEMORY BUYERS Hwang says long-term agreements are supporting prices and supply will stay tight because major new fabs will not start production until 2028.
FOR CONVENTIONAL DRAM TrendForce says server DRAM is expected to remain undersupplied in the fourth quarter as buyers add RDIMMs for agentic AI workloads.
The framework says that “the binding constraint on AI scaling has quietly shifted to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).”
As we read it, TrendForce’s 8-high note shows the constraint reaching productdesign: buyers are weighing smaller HBM stacks to stretch limited supply. The framework predates these releases and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
The 121% is TrendForce’s forecast for blended HBM ASP across the market, not a price any supplier has announced. TrendForce’s fourth-quarter contract figures date from 30 September. Our 73–80% assumes the same capacity per DRAM die in both stack heights, which TrendForce does not state. We have read TrendForce’s press releases, not its paid reports.
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Two research firms describe the same market from different sides. Counterpoint says conventional DRAM outgrew HBM in the third quarter and HBM prices are catching up; TrendForce projects a 121% rise in blended HBM prices in 2027 and a per-gigabit premium on 8-high stacks, the configuration SK hynix says some customers are moving to.
A note on sourcing. HBM and contract-price forecasts come from TrendForce’s 29 and 30 September press releases; DRAM mix figures and the Hwang quote from Counterpoint Research’s 5 November release; SK hynix’s call from Korean outlets as cited in our 31 October piece. Stack prices are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
