Anthropic has committed to spend at least approximately $121.3 billion under a cloud hosting agreement with Google between April 2026 and July 2033, according to the amended Form S-1 it filed with the SEC on Monday, 2 November. Its original S-1, filed on 26 October, put the same minimum at approximately $114.5 billion, so the floor rose by about $6.8 billion, or 5.9%, between the two filings, by our arithmetic.
The amended filing also says Anthropic’s leases signed but not yet commenced carry estimated future obligations of approximately $451.2 billion. That is more than the latest figures Microsoft, Meta and Oracle have filed for their own leases not yet commenced, by our tally of their SEC filings.
Leases signed but not yet commenced, in billions of dollars, from each company’s latest SEC filing: Anthropic, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet as of 30 September 2026, Oracle as of 31 August 2026. Anthropic’s figure is estimated future undiscounted lease obligations. Purchase commitments are excluded. Sources: Anthropic Form S-1/A (2 Nov 2026); company 10-Q and 10-K filings on SEC EDGAR. Chart: FourWeekMBA.
The key insight: Anthropic’s amended S-1 raises its minimum spend under its Google hosting agreement to approximately $121.3 billion through July 2033, from $114.5 billion a week earlier, and puts its leases signed but not yet commenced at approximately $451.2 billion.
The S-1/A says that in March 2026 Anthropic entered into a CSP hosting agreement with Google, “which was subsequently amended between May and October 2026, pursuant to which we committed to spend at least approximately $121.3 billion between April 2026 and July 2033, regardless of actual usage”.
The original S-1 described the same agreement as amended “between May and August 2026” and gave the commitment as “at least approximately $114.5 billion between April 2026 and July 2033”.
Both filings say “if our actual spend falls short, we must pay Google the difference as a true-up subject to certain adjustments and exceptions if available”, and that the commitments are “non-cancelable except in the event of Google’s uncured material breach”.
Anthropic’s minimum committed spend under its Google CSP hosting agreement in its 26 October S-1 and 2 November S-1/A, and its estimate for additional TPU compute not included in the floor, in billions of dollars. Source: Anthropic PBC, Forms S-1 and S-1/A filed with the SEC.
The TPUs Outside the Floor
Separately, the S-1/A says Anthropic “committed to procure additional TPU compute, without a fixed dollar commitment, via one of various delivery methods, including either a CSP hosting agreement with Google, direct purchase from Google with five-year financing, or direct purchase and/or lease from a third-party TPU provider with five-year financing”.
That compute is expected to be delivered between 2028 and 2031, the filing says, and Anthropic estimates the aggregate future payments at “approximately $125.0 billion to $150.0 billion, which are not included in the contractual obligations table above”. The original S-1 gave the same $125.0 billion to $150.0 billion range but did not name the delivery methods or the five-year financing.
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Google Is One of Several Floors
The S-1/A lists other minimum-spend agreements. Anthropic says it committed to spend at least $44.9 billion with Microsoft between November 2026 and June 2033, and at least $110.0 billion with Amazon between May 2026 and April 2036, in both cases “regardless of actual usage”.
It also says it agreed to spend “an aggregate of up to $120.5 billion over terms extending into 2029” with SpaceXAI, formerly X.AI, for compute powered by Nvidia GPUs.
The Google, Amazon and Microsoft floors add up to $276.2 billion, and the Google floor alone is about 13.5% of Anthropic’s approximately $895.4 billion of aggregate committed spend, by our arithmetic.
$451.2 Billion of Leases Not Yet Started
The S-1/A says its contractual obligations table “does not include leases executed and not yet commenced as of September 30, 2026, with total estimated future undiscounted lease obligations of approximately $451.2 billion”. It says these are expected to commence between 2026 and 2028, with a weighted-average term of approximately 10 years.
In our tally of leases not yet on Big Tech’s books, the latest filings put Microsoft at $364.6 billion, Meta at $355.73 billion and Oracle at $288 billion, with Amazon at $164.922 billion and Alphabet at $130.5 billion. Anthropic’s $451.2 billion is about 1.24 times Microsoft’s figure, by our arithmetic. The dates differ: Oracle’s is as of 31 August, the others 30 September.
The filing adds that after 30 September Anthropic entered into commitments with “aggregate future minimum payment obligations of approximately $100.2 billion”, and that other compute arrangements without a fixed dollar commitment could cost “approximately $150 billion to $175 billion”. Neither amount is in the filing’s contractual obligations table.
As we read the two filings, the Google change is an amendment made between August and October: the original S-1 described the agreement as amended between May and August 2026, the S-1/A between May and October 2026.
As we read the lease figure, Anthropic now reports more leases signed but not yet started than Microsoft, Meta or Oracle report for their own, although each company measures and dates the figure in its own filing.
Anthropic’s amended Form S-1
“We committed to spend at least approximately $121.3 billion between April 2026 and July 2033, regardless of actual usage”
Three Implications
FOR IPO INVESTORS The S-1/A says Anthropic must pay Google the difference as a true-up if its actual spend falls short of the approximately $121.3 billion minimum.
FOR GOOGLE The filing names a CSP hosting agreement with Google and direct purchase from Google with five-year financing among the ways Anthropic may buy additional TPU compute estimated at $125.0 billion to $150.0 billion.
FOR DATA CENTRE LANDLORDS The S-1/A puts Anthropic’s leases executed and not yet commenced at approximately $451.2 billion, expected to commence between 2026 and 2028.
The framework says: “The $1T capex cycle is being underwritten by a $1T concentrated demand commitment from two counterparties whose combined free cash flow is deeply negative.”
As we read it, Anthropic’s amended filing adds named floors to one side of that argument: approximately $121.3 billion with Google, $110.0 billion with Amazon and $44.9 billion with Microsoft. The framework is the owner’s argument and does not discuss this filing.
The filing does not say what Anthropic received for the $6.8 billion increase in the Google floor, such as more capacity or a longer term at the same dates. It does not say which delivery method it expects to use for the additional TPUs. The lease comparison sets Anthropic’s estimated undiscounted obligations against figures each company reports in its own way, on different dates. The 5.9%, $276.2 billion, 13.5% and 1.24-times figures are our arithmetic.
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Anthropic’s amended S-1 raises its minimum spend under its Google hosting agreement to approximately $121.3 billion through July 2033, from $114.5 billion in its first filing a week earlier, and names five-year financing among the ways it may buy an estimated $125.0 billion to $150.0 billion of additional TPU compute. Its $451.2 billion of leases not yet commenced is larger than the latest such figures from Microsoft, Meta and Oracle.
A note on sourcing. Anthropic figures and quotations are from its Form S-1/A filed with the SEC on 2 November 2026 and its Form S-1 filed on 26 October 2026; peer lease figures are from those companies’ latest SEC filings as compiled in our earlier piece. The $6.8 billion change, the 5.9%, $276.2 billion, 13.5% and 1.24-times figures are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
