Mainstream memory chip spot prices slipped over the past eight days while memory stocks rallied. TrendForce’s spot table put the session average for a DDR5 16Gb chip at $60.233 on 11 November, 2.1% below its 3 November reading, and DDR4 8Gb at $44.893, down 4.1%, by our arithmetic. Micron closed 11 November at $811.30, up 23.6% in four sessions from its 5 November close, and Sandisk rose 21.2% to $977.69, on Nasdaq’s official closes.
Over five weeks the order flips. From 6 October to 11 November, Micron fell 22.4% and Sandisk 41.1%, while the DDR4 8Gb spot price fell 3.1% and TrendForce’s 512Gb TLC NAND wafer spot price fell 14.2% between its 5 October and 2 November readings, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · The Memory Wall
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on the memory wall, the limit memory bandwidth puts on AI chips. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss this week’s prices.
The key insight: In the eight days to 11 November, TrendForce’s spot averages for DDR5 16Gb and DDR4 8Gb chips fell 2.1% and 4.1%, while Micron and Sandisk rose 23.6% and 21.2% from their 5 November closes, by our arithmetic. Since 6 October, though, the shares are down 22.4% and 41.1%, against a 3.1% fall in DDR4 8Gb spot.
TrendForce’s weekly spot report of 4 November said DRAM trends “diverged this week”. For DDR5 chips, “some buyers raised target procurement prices under delivery pressure”. For DDR4, “with spot prices exceeding suppliers’ official prices amid sluggish end-market demand, buyers generally believe prices have room for corrections”, and trading volumes shrank significantly. Its mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s average was $46.82 on 3 November, against $46.32 on 6 October.
The 11 November table shows all three mainstream DRAM chips lower than on 3 November: DDR5 16Gb down 2.1%, DDR4 16Gb down 3.5% to $79.867 and DDR4 8Gb down 4.1%, by our arithmetic on TrendForce’s session averages. On the module side, the DDR5 RDIMM 32GB server module spot average was $2,025 in TrendForce’s 2 November reading, 6.47% below the $2,165 of its 26 October reading.
NAND fell faster. TrendForce said that in the week to 26 October Chinese smartphone brands “collectively lowered prices during the Double 11 promotions”, and that 512Gb TLC wafer spot prices dropped 9.19% to $16.883. In the week to 2 November they fell another 4.33% to $16.152, the latest reading on its wafer table when we read it, as “sellers are expected to continue adjusting prices flexibly to move inventory”. The 14.2% wafer fall since 5 October is our arithmetic.
Micron and Sandisk daily closes from 6 October to 11 November 2026, against TrendForce spot prices for the mainstream DDR4 8Gb chip (6 October to 11 November) and the 512Gb TLC NAND wafer (5 October to 2 November, its latest reading), each indexed to 100 at its first reading. Sources: Nasdaq official closes; TrendForce spot tables and weekly spot updates. Indexing and percentage changes are our arithmetic.
What the Stocks Did
Micron’s 11.9% gain on Wednesday and Sandisk’s 13.7% came a day after CoreWeave’s results, as our close box reported. From the 5 November close, Micron’s four-session rise of $154.91 a share is about $175.3 billion of market value on the 1,131,423,212 shares in its latest SEC filing, and Sandisk’s about $24.4 billion, by our arithmetic. In after-hours trading at 5:37 p.m. ET, Nasdaq quotes had Micron at $800.01, down 1.39%, and Sandisk down 1.30%.
The rally started from a deep low. On 5 November Micron closed at $656.39, down from $1,045.56 on 6 October, and Sandisk at $806.43, down from $1,660.46. Measured from the 3 November close, before the slide, Micron was still 5.1% lower on 11 November and Sandisk 13.2% lower, by our arithmetic. We reported the earlier leg when memory stocks fell up to 26% while DRAM prices kept rising.
The Contract and AI Side
The company and contract data run the other way. Micron’s 30 September earnings release guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue to $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, against $54.23 billion in the quarter to 3 September, a 13.4% step at the midpoint by our arithmetic. Chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra said: “We are increasing our investments in technology, products and manufacturing to help drive SI forward with our customers, and our Strategic Customer Agreements provide added confidence in the durability of Micron’s financialperformance.”
Contract prices are still rising, but more slowly. Fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices are expected to rise about 20% quarter on quarter, Commercial Times reported, as relayed by TrendForce on 20 October, a slowdown from about 80% in the second quarter and 40% in the third, with “price ceilings under long-term agreements (LTAs) gradually taking effect”. DRAMeXchange’s October DDR4 8Gb contract average was a record $27.50.
In a release on 11 November, TrendForce forecast PC DRAM contract prices to rise 13% to 18% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, slowing from the previous quarter, and client SSD contract prices to rise by less than 5%. Bank of America forecasts memory revenue of $1.47 trillion in 2027, and Samsung Securities said Samsung Electronics and SK hynix shares already price in memory price declines of about 46% and 36%, eToday reported.
The Case for a Peak
Winbond chairman Chiao Yu-Chun voiced the hope on 7 November that memory prices have peaked, as we reported. Charles Kau, a former president of Nanya Technology, warned that CXMT’s expansion to 10 wafer fabs could trigger a global memory supply glut, TechNews reported, as relayed by TrendForce on 11 November; new capacity is expected within two years, according to the same report. TrendForce’s 11 November release said notebook shipments fell 15.8% quarter on quarter in the third quarter, that DRAM inventory weeks among PC makers have risen steadily since then, and that some PC brands had placed orders “beyond their actual requirements”; some manufacturers have begun renegotiating their 2027 requirements with memory suppliers. Its weekly reports describe DDR4 spot prices above suppliers’ official prices and NAND sellers cutting to clear stock.
The Structural Read
As we read the two series, the shares and the spot table have not moved together: the stocks fell far more than DRAM spot prices into 5 November and then rebounded in four sessions while spot prices kept slipping.
As we read Micron’s filing and the reported contract outlook, the companies’ case rests on contracts and AI demand rather than spot: guidance above the last quarter, and fourth-quarter contract prices expected to rise about 20%, more slowly than earlier in the year.
TrendForce, weekly spot report, 4 November
“buyers generally believe prices have room for corrections”
Three Implications
FOR MEMORY INVESTORS Shares rose more than 20% in four sessions while TrendForce’s DRAM spot averages slipped 2.1% to 4.1% over eight days, by our arithmetic.
FOR BUYERS OF CHIPS TrendForce reports DDR4 spot prices above suppliers’ official prices and 512Gb TLC wafer spot down to $16.152 in its 2 November reading.
FOR THE SUPPLIERS Micron guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue to $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, and Commercial Times expects fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices up about 20%, as relayed by TrendForce.
The framework argues: “HBM growth is outpacing accelerator demand, making memory the rate-limiting factor in the AI scaling equation.”
As we read it, this week separates the two memory markets the framework distinguishes in practice: the AI-linked contract side the companies cite, and the commodity spot table, where DDR4 and NAND wafer prices slipped. The framework predates this week’s prices and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
Spot prices differ from suppliers’ official prices, as TrendForce’s 4 November report notes, and it described spot trading volumes shrinking significantly; a spot move does not by itself show where contract prices will go. Its weekly figures and session averages use different dates, so the five-week and eight-day windows are not the same. The latest wafer reading on TrendForce’s table is dated 2 November. Nothing in the filings or quotes we read says why the shares moved, and we make no forecast of prices or shares.
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In the eight days to 11 November, TrendForce’s spot averages for the three mainstream DRAM chips slipped 2.1% to 4.1% while Micron and Sandisk rose more than 20% from their 5 November closes. Over five weeks, both shares remain well below early October, by more than DRAM spot fell. Micron’s own guidance and the reported fourth-quarter contract outlook still point up; the spot table shows small declines since 3 November.
A note on sourcing. Spot prices are from TrendForce’s DRAM, module and wafer spot tables, read on 11 November between 22:30 and 22:40 UTC, from our saved copy of its DRAM table of 3 November, and from its weekly spot price updates of 7, 21 and 28 October and 4 November. Share prices are Nasdaq’s official closes. Micron’s guidance and the Mehrotra quote are from its 30 September earnings release, filed with the SEC.
TrendForce’s PC DRAM and SSD forecasts are from its 11 November press release. The 20% contract outlook is Commercial Times’s, as relayed by TrendForce; we did not read that original. The Kau comments are as relayed by TrendForce and checked against the TechNews original. Percentage changes, indexing and market-value changes are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
