Bank of America forecasts global memory industryrevenue of $970 billion in 2026, $1.47 trillion in 2027 and $1.58 trillion in 2028, Seeking Alpha reported on 10 November. The bank said the industry “could sustain its current upcycle through 2027 and avoid a downturn in 2028”, citing TrendForce’s Avril Wu at a BofA-hosted webcast the same day.
By our arithmetic from those three figures, revenue would rise about 52% in 2027 but only about 7.5% in 2028, an implied compound growth rate of about 27.6% a year from 2026 to 2028. In BofA’s own numbers, the second year of the run adds $110 billion, against $500 billion in the first.
Business Pill · The Memory Wall
A short explainer on the memory wall. It teaches the general idea and does not discuss the BofA forecast.
The key insight: As we read it, BofA’s forecast describes a cycle that keeps growing but loses most of its speed: by our arithmetic, revenue rises about 52% in 2027 and about 7.5% in 2028, so the run the bank sees through 2028 rests mainly on the 2027 step.
According to Seeking Alpha, Wu said memory prices were likely to keep rising, with fourth-quarter 2026 DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) prices expected to increase 10% to 20% from the previous quarter and NAND prices rising 8% to 13%. She also expects HBM prices to more than double in 2027.
Wu also said long-term supply agreements could help reduce price volatility beyond 2028, the report says. We covered long-term memory supply agreements earlier this month.
BofA broadly agreed with the industry outlook but had more conservative price assumptions, Seeking Alpha reported. The bank expects fourth-quarter DRAM prices to rise 8% sequentially and NAND prices 3%, with price corrections potentially starting earlier in 2027.
Bank of America’s forecast of global memory industryrevenue: $970 billion in 2026, $1.47 trillion in 2027 and $1.58 trillion in 2028. Data: BofA, as reported by Seeking Alpha, 10 November 2026. Year-on-year growth of about 52% (2027) and 7.5% (2028) is our arithmetic.
Where the Two Forecasts Differ
The bank expects HBM price increases in 2027 to remain below 50%, the report says, against TrendForce’s forecast of more than a doubling. On fourth-quarter DRAM, BofA’s 8% sits below the low end of Wu’s 10% to 20% range; on NAND, its 3% is below her 8% to 13%.
A second outlet, investingLive, reported the same three revenue figures and the same price assumptions on 11 November. It wrote that the trajectory “suggests the industry could sustain record revenue and earnings through 2028”.
For scale, our earlier piece on DRAM revenue growth tracked the DRAM side of the same cycle; BofA’s figures cover the whole memory industry.
The Structural Read
As we read the reports, the gap between the two forecasts is about price, not direction: BofA and TrendForce both see prices rising, but the bank’s fourth-quarter DRAM and NAND assumptions sit below the low end of Wu’s ranges.
As we read the reports, HBM is where the two views differ most for 2027: BofA expects increases below 50%, while TrendForce’s Wu expects HBM prices to more than double.
Seeking Alpha, 10 November 2026
“suggesting the industry could maintain record revenue and earnings levels through 2028”
Three Implications
FOR MEMORY MAKERS BofA’s figures, as reported, imply about $500 billion of added revenue in 2027 and about $110 billion in 2028, by our arithmetic.
FOR MEMORY BUYERS BofA expects fourth-quarter DRAM prices up 8% and NAND up 3% sequentially, with price corrections potentially starting earlier in 2027, the reports say.
FOR THE CYCLE Wu said long-term supply agreements could help reduce price volatility beyond 2028, according to Seeking Alpha.
The framework records: “Memory is becoming the new compute.”
As we read it, BofA’s forecast of $1.58 trillion in 2028 memory revenue, as reported, fits that description of memory’s weight in the AI stack. The framework predates the BofA forecast and does not discuss it.
What Is Not Established
The reports do not give BofA’s revenue split between DRAM, HBM and NAND, its methodology, or its assumptions for memory makers’ capacity. They do not name the BofA analysts. We read the reports, not BofA’s note itself.
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BofA forecasts memory industryrevenue rising from $970 billion in 2026 to $1.58 trillion in 2028, as reported by Seeking Alpha; by our arithmetic, annual growth slows from about 52% in 2027 to about 7.5% in 2028, while the bank’s price assumptions sit below TrendForce’s.
A note on sourcing. We read Seeking Alpha’s report of 10 November 2026 (via TradingView) and investingLive’s report of 11 November 2026 in full. We did not read Bank of America’s research note or the webcast, and did not contact BofA or TrendForce. Growth rates are our arithmetic from BofA’s three reported revenue figures.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
