The average price of 8-gigabit DDR4 DRAM used in PCs rose 5.77% to $27.50 in October from $26 in September, an all-time high and the 19th consecutive monthly gain, according to market research firm DRAMeXchange as reported by TheElec. The average October price of 128-gigabit MLC NAND flash was unchanged at $30.61, ending a rally that began in January 2025, TheElec reported.
Since May, the DDR4 average has risen 37.5%, from $20 to $27.50, while the MLC NAND average has risen 15.5%, from $26.51 to $30.61, by our arithmetic from the monthly averages DRAMeXchange published and TheElec reported.
The key insight: The 8-gigabit DDR4 DRAM average rose 5.77% to a record $27.50 in October, a 19th straight monthly gain, while the 128-gigabit MLC NAND average held at $30.61, according to DRAMeXchange data reported by TheElec; since May, DDR4 is up 37.5% and MLC NAND 15.5%, by our arithmetic.
TheElec said the DDR4 rise reflects shrinking supplies of commodity DRAM as memory manufacturers increase production of server memory products, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM). TrendForce, the parent company of DRAMeXchange, expects South Korean DRAM manufacturers to cut PC DRAM production in 2027 by 20% to 40% from 2026, and forecasts PC DRAM contract prices will rise 13% to 18% in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, according to TheElec.
On the NAND side, TrendForce said prices could decline in the fourth quarter, TheElec reported. TrendForce attributed the slowdown to already elevated MLC prices, adding that customers are shifting to relatively cheaper single-level cell (SLC) and triple-level cell (TLC) products.
The gap opened over the year. In May, DRAMeXchange put the DDR4 average at $20, up 25% from $16 in April, and the MLC NAND average at $26.51, up 9.73% on the month, TheElec reported at the time. In September the DDR4 average was $26, up 4% from $25, and MLC NAND was $30.61, up 0.44% from $30.48, according to TheElec’s report of DRAMeXchange data.
TrendForce’s own public price table lists the September DDR4 8Gb contract average at $26.00 and the 128Gb MLC NAND average at $30.608.
Business Pill · The Memory Wall
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on the memory wall. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss these October prices.
What Was Posted on X
Memory prices are starting to split in two.
DRAM contract prices hit another record in October, with DDR4 8Gb up 5.8% to $27.50 and Korea’s DDR5 16Gb fixed price rising from $48 to $50.
NAND went the other way, with the 128Gb benchmark flat at $30.61, ending a 21 month streak of increases.
Kioxia fell more than 15% today after warning that NAND price gains will slow to about 3% to 4%, down from about 70% earlier this year.
TrendForce still expects total DRAM prices including HBM to rise 15% to 20% this quarter.
The DRAM names with HBM exposure are in a very different spot than the pure NAND players right now.
@MelvinInvests says memory prices are starting to split in two: by the poster’s figures, DRAM contract prices hit another record in October while the 128Gb NAND benchmark was flat at $30.61, ending a 21-month streak of increases, and the poster argues DRAM names with HBM exposure are in a very different spot from pure NAND players. The DDR4, DDR5 and Kioxia figures are the poster’s; the update above sets out what we could confirm.
Average monthly price in US dollars of 8-gigabit DDR4 DRAM and 128-gigabit MLC NAND flash, May and October 2026, from DRAMeXchange data reported by TheElec. DDR4 rose from $20 to $27.50 and MLC NAND from $26.51 to $30.61, gains of 37.5% and 15.5% by our arithmetic.
Update, 2 Nov: how fast NAND’s gains cooled. Kioxia’s own guidance shows the slowdown. Its average selling price, including product mix, more than doubled quarter on quarter in January to March, rose about 70% in April to June and rose in the mid-20% range in July to September; for October to December it expects a modest rise, according to XenoSpectrum’s read of Kioxia’s 30 October earnings materials. A post by @MelvinInvests puts the coming NAND price gain at about 3% to 4% and says Korea’s DDR5 16Gb fixed price rose from $48 to $50; we could not confirm either figure in a primary source. For scale, WSTS’s spring forecast of 2 June projected the global chip market to grow 89.9% in 2026 to $1.51 trillion, with memory up around 250%, and a further 27% to about $1.9 trillion in 2027. Those are June forecasts, not October data.
We also reported on Monday, from Hankyung and Datanews, that Samsung, SK hynix, Micron and Sandisk hold 58 long-term memory agreements, with five-year terms and deposits becoming standard. What is new in the October data is the price line itself: a 19th straight monthly gain for DDR4 and a flat month for MLC NAND.
The Structural Read
As we read TheElec’s account, the two benchmarks are moving for different reasons: DRAM supply for PCs is shrinking as makers shift production toward server memory and HBM, while MLC NAND buyers, after the price gains, are moving to cheaper SLC and TLC products.
As we read TrendForce’s forecasts as reported by TheElec, the split is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, with PC DRAM contract prices forecast up 13% to 18% and NAND prices described as possibly declining.
TheElec, 2 November 2026, reporting DRAMeXchange’s October data
“commodity NAND flash prices stopped climbing for the first time in 21 months”
Three Implications
FOR PC MAKERS TrendForce forecasts PC DRAM contract prices up 13% to 18% in the fourth quarter and expects South Korean makers to cut PC DRAM production in 2027 by 20% to 40% from 2026, TheElec reported.
FOR FLASH BUYERS The 128-gigabit MLC NAND average was unchanged at $30.61 in October, and TrendForce said prices could decline in the fourth quarter, according to TheElec.
FOR MEMORY INVESTORS Kioxia closed 15.8% lower and SK hynix 3.8% higher on 2 November, as we reported; the MLC NAND benchmark covers memory cards and USB drives, not data-centre flash.
The framework opens: “While attention remains fixed on GPU shortages and frontier model capabilities, the binding constraint on AI scaling has quietly shifted to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).”
As we read it, TheElec’s note that commodity DRAM supply is shrinking as makers increase server memory and HBM output is the same shift seen from the PC side. The framework is the owner’s argument and does not discuss these October prices.
The October figures reach us through TheElec’s report of DRAMeXchange data; TrendForce’s detailed October tables are for paying members, and its public table we could read still shows September. The 128-gigabit MLC NAND benchmark covers memory cards and USB drives, not data-centre flash, so it does not by itself explain Monday’s share moves.
The sources do not give a fourth-quarter forecast for high-bandwidth memory or for enterprise SSD prices, and TrendForce’s statement that NAND prices could decline is a forecast, not a reported price.
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The 8-gigabit DDR4 average rose to a record $27.50 in October, a 19th straight monthly gain, while the 128-gigabit MLC NAND average held at $30.61, ending a rally that began in January 2025, according to DRAMeXchange data reported by TheElec. Since May, DDR4 is up 37.5% and MLC NAND 15.5%, by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. This piece relies on TheElec’s monthly reports of DRAMeXchange price data for October, September and May, and on TrendForce’s public price tables for September. The 37.5% and 15.5% changes since May are our arithmetic from those averages.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
