Shares of the three biggest memory makers fell between 18.7% and 26.1% from the 29 October close to the 6 November close, by our arithmetic from exchange closes, while Counterpoint Research said on 5 November that memory prices were still rising (Counterpoint).
Counterpoint put third-quarter DRAM revenue at nearly $200 billion, up 369% year on year, and its senior analyst Jeongku Choi called it “a pricing super-cycle, not yet a volume cycle”.
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The key insight: From the 29 October close to the 6 November close, SK hynix fell 25.8%, Samsung Electronics 18.7% and Micron 26.1% by our arithmetic, while Counterpoint put third-quarter DRAM revenue at nearly $200 billion, up 369% year on year, and said prices were still rising.
Choi said: “Bit shipments rose only about 4% this quarter, yet DRAM revenue reached nearly $200 billion, close to 5x a year ago.” Choi added: “With prices still rising, suppliers are on track to set new earnings records again next quarter.”
Counterpoint said higher average selling prices were the main driver of the quarter. It wrote that “price increases slowed from the steep rise in the first half of the year”, and that average selling prices reached $1.9 per gigabit.
Research director MS Hwang said “Memory prices should stay strong next year” and that “supply will stay tight because major new fabs will not start production until 2028”. Counterpoint put Samsung at 38% of DRAM revenue, SK hynix at 29% and Micron at 21%, as we reported.
Share prices of Micron, SK hynix and Samsung Electronics indexed to 100 at the 29 October 2026 close, against the 6 November close. KRX closes via Yahoo Finance; Micron from Nasdaq’s official closes. The index and changes are our arithmetic.
What the Shares Did
SK hynix closed at 1,132,000 won on 6 November, 25.8% below its 29 October close of 1,526,000 won, the day after it released third-quarter results. Samsung Electronics fell 18.7%, from 232,000 won to 188,700 won, over the same days. Both figures use KRX closes as shown by Yahoo Finance. Micron fell 26.1% on Nasdaq’s official closes, from $934.27 to $690.00.
The window covers the 5 November rout, when KOSPI trading was halted after an 8.6% fall. Counterpoint’s release does not discuss share prices, and this piece makes no claim about why the shares moved.
What Buyers Are Paying
Apple’s chief financial officer Kevan Parekh said its roughly one-point fall in September-quarter gross margin, excluding tariff refunds, was driven entirely by memory impacts, as we reported. Chief executive John Ternus called memory prices unprecedented twice on the 2 November call. TrendForce projects blended HBM prices to rise 121% year on year in 2027, per our earlier piece.
Where the Cash Is Going
SK hynix said on 28 October that it plans shareholder returns of “approximately 100 trillion won” for fiscal 2026 (SK hynix), about 101% of the 98.7 trillion won of net cash it reported at the end of September, by our arithmetic in our piece.
New supply is slow to arrive. TSMC is said to be weighing making memory at Nvidia’s request, in a market where the three largest makers hold 88% of DRAM revenue by our arithmetic, as we reported.
Our Numbers
From the 29 October close to the 6 November close, SK hynix fell 25.8%, Samsung Electronics 18.7% and Micron 26.1% (our arithmetic). Applying SK hynix’s 29% share to nearly $200 billion gives roughly $58 billion of third-quarter DRAM revenue, an upper-end approximation by our arithmetic, since Counterpoint gives shares rather than each company’s revenue.
The 369% and the 4% are measured over different periods: Counterpoint’s revenuegrowth is year on year, while the bit-shipment figure is for the quarter. So they cannot be divided to get a price per bit, and we do not.
As we read Counterpoint’s release, the quarter was driven by price rather than volume: its analyst called it a pricing super-cycle and put bit shipments up only about 4% in the quarter.
As we read the share moves, the stock market and the memory market moved in opposite directions over these six sessions; no source links the two, and this piece does not either.
As we read SK hynix’s release, part of the pricing gain is going back to shareholders: the planned 2026 returns roughly equal its September net cash, by our arithmetic.
Jeongku Choi, Counterpoint Research, 5 November 2026
“AI has turned memory from a commodity into a valuable scarce resource, and buyers are now competing for supply rather than negotiating on price.”
Three Implications
FOR BUYERS Counterpoint says buyers are competing for supply rather than negotiating on price, and Apple put a margin step down to memory, as we reported.
FOR SUPPLIERS Counterpoint says suppliers are on track to set new earnings records again next quarter, with prices still rising.
FOR NEW SUPPLY Counterpoint’s Hwang says major new fabs will not start production until 2028; TSMC is said to be weighing memory at Nvidia’s request, as we reported.
The analysis says: “HBM growth is outpacing accelerator demand, making memory the rate-limiting factor in the AI scaling equation.”
As we read it, Counterpoint’s figures put a price on that constraint this quarter: revenue close to 5x a year ago on bit shipments up about 4% in the quarter, per Counterpoint. The analysis does not discuss share prices.
What Is Not Established
Counterpoint’s release gives shares and growth rates, not each vendor’s dollar revenue, so the $58 billion figure is an approximation. The share prices cover six trading days and are not linked to the memory figures by any source. Counterpoint’s view that prices will stay strong next year is its own forecast.
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Memory makers’ shares fell 18.7% to 26.1% between 29 October and 6 November, by our arithmetic, while Counterpoint reported DRAM revenue up 369% year on year to nearly $200 billion on bit shipments up about 4% in the quarter, and said prices were still rising. SK hynix plans about 100 trillion won of 2026 shareholder returns, roughly its September net cash.
A note on sourcing. DRAM figures and quotes come from Counterpoint Research’s 5 November release; the payout from SK hynix’s 28 October release; share prices are KRX closes via Yahoo Finance and Nasdaq’s official closes for Micron. Apple, HBM and TSMC lines summarise our earlier pieces, linked. The changes, index and approximation are our arithmetic. This is not investment advice.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
