Winbond Electronics chairman Chiao Yu-Chun said on November 7 that they hope memory prices have peaked, Mirror Daily and the Liberty Times reported. Asked whether prices had reached the top, Chiao said “我希望它到頂了”, which we translate as: I hope it has reached the top. Chiao spoke to reporters at a family day.
Winbond’s own October revenue release shows consolidated revenue of NT$29.361 billion, up 256.96% from a year earlier: about 3.6 times October 2025, by our arithmetic. The month-on-month gain was 3.94%, after 29.99% in July and 2.00% to 3.44% in August and September.
Business Pill · Capex and Depreciation
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on how capital spending is spread over an asset’s life. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Winbond or memory prices.
The key insight: Winbond Electronics chairman Chiao Yu-Chun said on November 7 that they hope memory prices have peaked, Mirror Daily and the Liberty Times reported, while Winbond’s own October revenue was NT$29.361 billion, up 256.96% from a year earlier: about 3.6 times October 2025, by our arithmetic.
AI companies accept memory price increases readily, but phones, PCs and other consumer electronics struggle to absorb the rising cost, Chiao said, according to Mirror Daily. When phones get too expensive, consumers may keep theirs another year, and a PC upgrade may be pushed back a year, Chiao said, as reported by the paper.
Chiao described the market as “百業蕭條，一枝獨秀”, which we translate as: every other industry in a slump, one branch thriving. Mirror Daily reported that the thriving branch Chiao meant is AI.
On whether prices would keep rising, Mirror Daily quoted Chiao as saying “我希望它到頂了。再漲的話對一般老百姓是傷害，對AI來講沒問題，但從社會責任的角度來看也差不多了，已經賺很多了”. In our translation: further increases would hurt ordinary people; for AI it is no problem; from a social-responsibility angle it is about enough, and a lot has already been earned.
Mirror Daily wrote that some large memory makers have gross margins as high as 70% to 80%. Asked whether memory makers could keep pushing margins higher, Chiao said “我不覺得”, which we translate as: I don’t think so. The Liberty Times reported that Chiao said makers also worry that raising prices too far will suppress end demand.
Winbond’s consolidated monthly revenue, June to October 2026, in NT$ billion, with the change from the previous month on each bar. October was NT$29.361 billion, up 256.96% from a year earlier (about 3.6 times, our arithmetic); January to October was up 195.45% (about 3.0 times). Source: Winbond monthly revenue releases, unaudited, consolidated including Nuvoton.
The Cycle Warning
The Liberty Times reported that Chiao had estimated two years ago that this upcycle would run about two years, from July 2025 to June 2027, and that the market now looks set to extend into 2028 and 2029. Chiao’s concern, the paper reported, is that the next downturn comes too late, after makers keep building fabs and adding capacity.
Chiao has been watching funding as a signal for the cycle and expects that by 2029 funding limits could tip the industry into its next down cycle, according to the Liberty Times. For 2027, Chiao said data centres’ land permits, power and buildings are in place and the next stage is server installation, the paper reported.
Winbond began expanding capacity in the second half of last year and its tools are being installed, with the benefit expected from next year, Mirror Daily reported Chiao as saying. Because Winbond’s existing cleanroom space is full, its 2028 output increase will be smaller than 2027’s, the paper reported.
What Winbond’s Own Numbers Show
Winbond’s monthly releases put consolidated revenue at NT$20.597 billion in June, NT$26.773 billion in July, NT$27.309 billion in August, NT$28.249 billion in September and NT$29.361 billion in October. The figures are unaudited and include Nuvoton Technology and other subsidiaries.
Revenue for January through October totaled NT$209.79 billion, up 195.45% from the same period in 2025, Winbond said. That is about 3.0 times last year’s ten-month total, by our arithmetic. The monthly releases give revenue only; they do not split price from volume.
The Business Lever: A Supplier Asking for Restraint
As we read the reports, Chiao separates two buyers: AI companies, which Chiao says accept higher prices, and consumers, who Chiao says delay phone and PC upgrades instead.
As we read Winbond’s releases, revenue stepped up 29.99% in July and has since grown 2.00% to 3.94% a month.
As we read the Liberty Times account, Chiao’s stated worry is less about this cycle ending than about the next downturn arriving too late.
Chiao Yu-Chun, Winbond chairman, as quoted by Mirror Daily (7 Nov 2026)
“我希望它到頂了”
Three Implications
FOR CONSUMER DEVICE MAKERS Chiao said, as reported by Mirror Daily, that rising memory prices end up in device prices and further suppress consumer electronics demand.
FOR MEMORY MAKERS The Liberty Times reported that Chiao said makers also worry that raising prices too far will suppress end demand.
FOR AI BUYERS Chiao said, according to the Liberty Times, that 2027 data-centre land permits, power and buildings are in place and the next stage is server installation.
The framework says: “The AI race has a new bottleneck, and it’s not what most observers expect.”
As we read it, Chiao’s remarks show the chokepoint from the supplier’s side: a memory maker saying AI buyers can absorb the price and consumers cannot. The framework does not discuss Winbond or these remarks.
What Is Not Established
In the reports we read, Chiao gave no price forecast. The remarks come from reporters’ accounts of the family-day interview, not from a Winbond statement, and the English renderings here are our translations. Winbond’s revenue releases do not say how much of the growth came from price.
The post that brought the story to us, by @pequityresearch on X, gave its own English version, “I hope they have peaked”.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
Winbond’s chairman said on November 7 that they hope memory prices have peaked, arguing that AI buyers can pay but consumers cannot, and said their worry is that the next downturn comes too late. Winbond’s own October revenue was NT$29.361 billion, up 256.96% from a year earlier, after month-on-month gains of 2.00% to 3.94% since August.
A note on sourcing. Chiao’s remarks are as reported by Mirror Daily and the Liberty Times on November 7, read in the Chinese originals; English renderings are our translations. Revenue figures are from Winbond’s own monthly releases, unaudited and consolidated. The multiples are our arithmetic from Winbond’s stated year-on-year changes. We did not contact Winbond.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
