Samsung Securities estimated that the current share prices of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix already reflect memory price declines of about 46% and 36% respectively, the Korean business daily eToday reported on 6 November (eToday). The brokerage recommended continuing to hold memory stocks.
The estimate came after the two shares had fallen 13.1% and 17.2% in November, eToday reported. Samsung Electronics fell less, yet the memory price fall the broker says is priced into it is 10 percentage points deeper, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Financial Conditions
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on financial conditions. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Samsung or SK hynix.
The key insight: Samsung Securities estimated that the share prices of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix reflect memory price declines of about 46% and 36%, after November share falls of 13.1% and 17.2%, eToday reported.
Lee Jong-wook, an analyst at Samsung Securities, said on 6 November: “Concerns about data center investment delays are not in themselves unrealistic, but their impact is being exaggerated amid negative market sentiment”, adding that “current share prices already reflect a considerable downturn.” The quotations are our translation of the Korean report.
eToday reported that the brokerage saw a low likelihood that data center investment delays would lead directly to a halt in AI investment, because the core of the US regulation is sharing infrastructure costs such as energy rather than banning data center construction. It also called concerns about memory oversupply excessive: if demand slows before supply increases in earnest, the likelihood of a surge in inventory or a sharp fall in DRAM prices is limited, in the brokerage’s analysis.
The note named interest-rate stabilisation, a recovery in risk appetite and pre-emptive capex cuts by memory makers as possible triggers for a rebound, and said there was little to gain from selling at current share price levels. eToday did not publish how the 46% and 36% figures were calculated.
Samsung Securities estimates the share prices of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix reflect memory price declines of about 46% and 36%; the shares had fallen 13.1% and 17.2% in November to the 5 November close. Data: Samsung Securities estimate and share moves as reported by eToday, 6 Nov 2026; not independently verified.
What Was Posted on X
According to Korean media, Samsung and SK Hynix already price in a MEMORY crash that has not happened.
Samsung Securities worked BACKWARD from today’s stock prices and to justify where the shares trade, memory average selling prices would need to fall about 39.5% for Samsung and about 29.3% for SK Hynix by 2027.
Strip out HBM, and the implied collapse gets even uglier because conventional memory prices would need to fall about 45.7% for Samsung and about 35.9% for SK Hynix.
The analysts are not forecasting that crash and they are saying the STOCK MARKET is already treating it as the base case.
X user @MelvinInvests posted on 7 November, citing Korean media, that Samsung Securities worked backward from share prices. The post gives implied average selling price falls of about 39.5% for Samsung and 29.3% for SK Hynix by 2027, and about 45.7% and 35.9% for conventional memory excluding HBM. eToday’s report, on which this piece is based, gives about 46% and 36% and does not contain the 39.5%, 29.3%, 45.7% or 35.9% figures.
What the Shares Did
eToday tied the selling to moves in the US to regulate data center construction, concerns about prolonged high interest rates, and the credit risk of AI infrastructure investors such as Oracle and CoreWeave. On 5 November SK hynix closed down 9.46% and Samsung Electronics 7.57%, as we reported from Korea Exchange data (our piece).
The report was published at 08:06 Korea time on 6 November, before the session in which a circuit breaker halted the KOSPI. That day Samsung Electronics closed at 188,700 won, down 6.35%, and SK hynix at 1,132,000 won, down 10.44% (our piece). Korean markets were closed on 7 November, a Saturday.
Our Numbers
The gap between the two estimates is 10 percentage points (46% minus 36%), while Samsung Electronics’ November fall to the 5 November close was 4.1 points smaller than SK hynix’s (13.1% against 17.2%), by our arithmetic from the figures eToday reported.
As we read the estimate, Samsung Securities is describing a gap between share prices and current memory prices: it says the shares reflect large price declines, while Counterpoint said on 5 November that memory prices were still rising.
As we read the two figures, the order is reversed: Samsung Electronics fell less than SK hynix in November, yet the memory price fall the brokerage says is priced into it is 10 points deeper, by our arithmetic. eToday did not report why.
As we read the timing, the note was published before the 6 November session, in which Samsung Electronics fell a further 6.35% and SK hynix 10.44%.
Lee Jong-wook, Samsung Securities (our translation)
“Current share prices already reflect a considerable downturn.”
Three Implications
FOR MEMORY MAKERS Samsung Securities named pre-emptive capex cuts by memory makers as one possible trigger for a share price rebound, eToday reported.
FOR AI DATA CENTER BUILDERS eToday tied the selling to US moves to regulate data center construction and to the credit risk of AI infrastructure investors such as Oracle and CoreWeave.
FOR INVESTORS Samsung Securities recommended continuing to hold memory stocks; the estimate is the brokerage’s own and its method was not published.
The analysis says: “Memory is becoming the new compute.”
As we read it, the Samsung Securities note turns on how long memory stays scarce: the brokerage said high memory prices and profits may last longer than expected. The analysis does not discuss this note.
What Is Not Established
We read eToday’s account, not the Samsung Securities report itself, which was not available to us. The article does not say which memory price the 46% and 36% are measured against, over what period, or with which earnings assumptions. Samsung Securities’ view that further downside may be limited is its own estimate, not an established fact.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
Samsung Securities estimated on 6 November that Samsung Electronics’ share price reflects about a 46% memory price fall and SK hynix’s about 36%, after November falls of 13.1% and 17.2%; the next session took both lower again, by 6.35% and 10.44%.
A note on sourcing. The Samsung Securities estimates and quotations are from eToday’s 6 November 2026 report, in our translation from Korean; we did not read the brokerage’s report itself. Closing prices are from Korea Exchange data as previously reported by us. Differences are our arithmetic. This is not investment advice.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
