Horace Dediu wrote on Asymco on 1 November that “Apple is over 50% of the total consumer revenue of the top half of the S&P 500”. By our arithmetic from our own market-value data, Apple was 17.9% of the combined value of the world’s 10 most valuable companies at the 30 October close.
Dediu’s post, titled “The Last Consumer Company”, compares the 20 largest companies by market capitalisation in 2010 and in 2026, and estimates how much of each one’s sales come from consumers.
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The key insight: Asymco’s Horace Dediu writes that Apple is over 50% of the consumer revenue of the top half of the S&P 500 and that consumer sales are 15% of the largest companies’ revenue; by our arithmetic, Apple was 17.9% of the top 10 companies’ market value at the 30 October close.
Dediu writes that in 2010, “8 out of 20 of the largest companies were consumer-focused”. For 2026 he writes that “beside Apple, there are no consumer products companies” in the list, and that “The number of tech companies grew from 6 to 14 out of 20”.
He adds a column of trailing revenue and an estimate of the consumer share of each company’s sales. His total: “Consumer sales total $850 billion or 15% of total index revenues”. He concludes that, of the top 20, “85% is derived from sales to businesses or government”.
Dediu lists companies he puts at zero consumer exposure: “Nvidia, TSMC, Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, Meta (revenues), Eli Lilly, Berkshire Hathaway, Micron, AMD, SK hynix”.
Share of company sales about three years earlier vs latest, as reported by Asymco (Horace Dediu) on 1 November 2026: Samsung’s consumer share (69% to 21%), Microsoft’s More Personal Computing (25% to 15%) and Amazon’s non-AWS share, which is 100% minus AWS’s share (16% to 23%) by our arithmetic.
Consumer Sales Are Shrinking Inside Big Tech
For companies that sell to both consumers and businesses, Dediu writes that “the percent of business sales has been growing rapidly in the last three years”. Among his examples: “Samsung’s consumer share of sales has shrunk from 69% to 21%”. At Amazon, “the share of AWS increased from 16% to 23% over three years”. At Microsoft, the consumer-oriented More Personal Computing segment “has shrunk to about 15% from 25% in three years”.
At Google, he writes that subscriptions, platforms and devices “are down slightly from 13% a year ago to 11% today”, while Google Cloud “has more than doubled as percent of revenues”.
The Business Lever: Apple’s Market Value vs Its Consumer Weight
Dediu’s reading is that “From an investor’s point of view, Apple is essentially the only consumer investment worth considering”. He puts it another way: “all other S&P 500 consumer sales put together create less value than Apple alone”.
As we read Dediu’s figures, the largest companies’ revenue has tilted toward businesses and governments: he puts consumer sales at $850 billion, or 15%, of the top 20’s revenue.
By our arithmetic, Amazon’s non-AWS share of third-quarter sales fell from 84% to 77% over three years, using the AWS shares Dediu reports.
As we read the post, Dediu’s comparison is about who the buyer is, not about AI: he describes Samsung, Amazon, Microsoft and Google all shifting toward business sales.
Horace Dediu, Asymco, 1 November 2026
“all other S&P 500 consumer sales put together create less value than Apple alone”
Three Implications
FOR INVESTORS Dediu writes that if you want to gain exposure to consumers, own Apple.
FOR BIG TECH Dediu reports Microsoft’s More Personal Computing segment shrank to about 15% from 25% of sales in three years.
FOR THE INDEX Dediu writes that the number of tech companies in the top 20 grew from 6 to 14.
The framework says: “The $1T capex cycle is being underwritten by a $1T concentrated demand commitment from two counterparties whose combined free cash flow is deeply negative.”
As we read it, the business-facing sales Dediu describes include the cloud and chip spending that capex cycle buys; the framework does not discuss Apple or consumer revenue.
The consumer share of each company’s sales is Dediu’s estimate, and the rest of his analysis is behind Asymco’s paywall; we used only the free portion of the post. His list of the 20 largest companies is global and includes firms outside the S&P 500. The Amazon figure in our chart (100% minus AWS’s share) is our arithmetic. The 17.9% compares market value, not revenue, so it is not a like-for-like test of his finding.
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Asymco’s Horace Dediu writes that Apple is over 50% of the consumer revenue of the top half of the S&P 500, and that consumer sales are $850 billion, or 15%, of the largest companies’ revenue. By our arithmetic, Apple was 17.9% of the top 10 companies’ market value at the 30 October close.
A note on sourcing. We used only the free portion of Horace Dediu’s 1 November Asymco post; the consumer shares of sales are his estimates. The 17.9% is our arithmetic from closing prices and share counts at the 30 October close.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
