Apple expects total revenue for the December quarter to grow between 7% and 10% from a year earlier, according to CNBC’s report of the earnings call it held on 2 November, the first led by chief executive John Ternus. Applied to the $143.756 billion Apple reported for the December 2025 quarter, that range comes to $153.8 billion to $158.1 billion, by our arithmetic.
A 7% low end is the lowest of the five revenue outlooks Apple has given on its calls since October 2025, by our count; the four before it started at 10%, 13%, 14% and 9%. In three of those four quarters, the growthApple went on to report was above the top of the range, our arithmetic from its filings.
Business Pill · The Memory Wall
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on memory as a constraint. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Apple’s outlook.
The key insight: By our arithmetic, Apple’s 7% to 10% range puts December-quarter revenue 34% to 38% above the September quarter just reported, against a 40% step-up from September to December a year earlier.
Update, 3 Nov: Apple says its advanced-node chip constraints are easing. On the 2 November call, chief operating officer Sabih Khan said: “The Q4 constraints were primarily driven by the availability of the advanced nodes our SoCs are produced on.” He added: “But as we have transitioned more of our lineup to the latest 2-nm nodes, our constraints on advanced nodes are easing.” For the December quarter, he said Apple expects constraints on Mac and iPad “primarily driven by memory, as demand has been higher than what we expected”. The words are as relayed on X by Wall St Engine and TheTranscript, which give near-identical wording; we had not seen an Apple transcript of the question-and-answer session. Separately, Apple says Siri AI will have usage limits, and that increased access will be available for a fee (our piece).
For the December 2025 quarter, Apple guided to growth of 10% to 12%, CNBC reported in October 2025; it then reported $143.756 billion against $124.300 billion a year earlier, growth of 15.7%, our arithmetic. For the March 2026 quarter, chief financial officer Kevan Parekh said: “We expect our March total company revenue to grow by 13% to 16% year over year”, according to a Motley Fool transcript of the January call. Apple reported 16.6%.
For the June quarter, Parekh said: “We expect our June total company revenue to grow by 14% to 17% year over year, which comprehends our best view of constrained supply”, per the April call transcript. Apple reported 16.4%, inside that range. For the September quarter, Apple guided to 9% to 11%, CNBC reported in July, and on 2 November it reported $114.477 billion, up 11.7% on our arithmetic from the release.
The gap between reported growth and the top of the range was 3.7 points in the December 2025 quarter, 0.6 points in March and 0.7 points in September; June finished 0.6 points below its top, by our arithmetic. Those are past outcomes only; they say nothing about where the December 2026 quarter will land.
Revenue growth versus the year-ago quarter: the outlook range Apple gave on each earnings call (bars) and the growth it reported (dots), December 2025 quarter to December 2026 quarter. Outlook ranges as reported by CNBC (December 2025, September 2026 and December 2026 quarters) and in Motley Fool call transcripts (March and June 2026 quarters). Reported growth is our arithmetic from Apple’s quarterly net sales in its SEC filings.Animated: the low end of the revenue-growth range Apple gave on each earnings call, December 2025 quarter to December 2026 quarter, as reported by CNBC and in Motley Fool call transcripts. LSEG consensus of 11.4% for the December 2026 quarter as reported by CNBC.
What the Range Means in Dollars
Measured against the September quarter just reported, the outlook implies a sequential rise of 34% to 38% into the holiday quarter, our arithmetic. A year earlier, revenue rose 40% from the September 2025 quarter’s $102.466 billion to the December 2025 quarter’s $143.756 billion. The December quarter is the first full quarter of iPhone 18 Pro sales and the first to include the iPhone Duo, which CNBC said went on sale on 23 October, after the September quarter ended.
For the full fiscal year that ended in September, Apple reported revenue of $478.834 billion, up 15.1% from $416.161 billion, our arithmetic from its releases. The results we covered earlier showed iPhone revenue of $57.583 billion and a 47.9% gross margin that Apple said included approximately 1 percentage point from tariff refunds.
Analysts polled by LSEG were expecting growth equivalent to 11.4%, CNBC reported, above the top of Apple’s range; on last year’s $143.756 billion that is about $160.1 billion, by our arithmetic. CNBC also reported that Apple shares fell when the company gave the outlook.
At the end of the prepared remarks, chief financial officer Kevan Parekh also said that gross margin would be between 45% and 46%, lower than in the fourth quarter, and that Apple expected services sales to rise between 8% and 9%, CNBC reported. In the December 2025 quarter, gross margin was $69.231 billion on $143.756 billion of revenue, or 48.2%, our arithmetic from Apple’s filings. The four previous gross-margin ranges were 47%-48% for the December 2025 quarter (CNBC, October 2025), 48%-49% and 47.5%-48.5% for the March and June quarters (Motley Fool transcripts) and 47%-48% for the September quarter (CNBC, July 2026), so 45%-46% is the lowest of the five, by our count.
Combining the two ranges, gross profit would be $69.2 billion at the low ends and $72.7 billion at the high ends, against $69.231 billion a year earlier: from flat to about 5% higher, by our arithmetic. That is our combination of Apple’s ranges, not a figure Apple gave.
In the prepared remarks, as transcribed by Six Colors, Parekh said the gross-margin range “includes primarily the impact of higher memory costs, as well as some costs related to the ramp of Siri AI”. He said Apple expects operating expenses “to be between $20.4 billion and $20.8 billion”, against $18.379 billion in the December 2025 quarter, or 11% to 13% higher, our arithmetic. He also said: “We expect this to be the best quarter for revenue in the history of the company.”
What Ternus Said About Costs and Siri
Ternus told CNBC: “We saw higher memory costs as compared to the June quarter, and that was partly offset by the benefit of carrying inventory and lower costs on non-memory components”. CNBC also reported that Ternus said Apple “reluctantly” raised prices, which helped it offset component increases; Apple raised prices across the board in June, including $100 on iPhones, according to CNBC.
On the updated Siri AI, which CNBC described as a free upgrade for owners of iPhones new enough to run it, Ternus said Apple has a “lot of opportunities” for monetization, CNBC reported, adding: “One example is on the hardware side, right?” and “It offers a compelling reason for upgrading or switching”. Neither the release nor CNBC’s report gives a revenue figure for Siri or any AI feature.
Connecting the Coverage
Our other pieces on Apple’s fiscal 2026 fourth quarter:
As we read it, the smaller step-up sits next to Ternus’s remark to CNBC that memory costs were higher than in the June quarter; neither CNBC’s report nor the release ties the outlook to memory costs.
As we read it, the five ranges are the cleanest record of how Apple’s own expectations moved this year: low ends of 10%, 13%, 14%, 9% and now 7%, by our count.
As we read it, the outlook covers the first full quarter of iPhone 18 Pro sales and the iPhone Duo’s launch, and Apple has not said, in the reporting we read, how much of the range each accounts for.
John Ternus, Apple chief executive, to CNBC, 2 November 2026
“We saw higher memory costs as compared to the June quarter, and that was partly offset by the benefit of carrying inventory and lower costs on non-memory components”
Three Implications
FOR READERS COMPARING OUTLOOKS The 7% low end compares with low ends of 9% to 14% on the previous four calls, and reported growth finished above the top of the range in three of those four quarters, by our arithmetic.
FOR THE IPHONE DUO CNBC reported that first-day Duo preorders quickly slipped into estimated ship dates in 2027; the December quarter is the first to include any Duo sales.
FOR COMPONENT SUPPLIERS CNBC reported that Apple raised prices across the board in June and that Ternus said the increases helped it offset component increases.
The framework puts it this way: “Memory is becoming the new compute.”
As we read it, Apple’s chief executive now names memory costs when he explains the company’s margins. The framework was published in December 2025 and does not discuss Apple’s outlook.
What Is Not Established
The outlook figures for the December 2026 and September 2026 quarters come from CNBC’s reporting of Apple’s calls, and the March and June ranges from Motley Fool transcripts; Parekh’s quoted remarks come from an in-progress transcript published by Six Colors, not an official Apple transcript, and covered the prepared remarks only when we read it. Reported growth rates, dollar ranges, sequential changes and gaps are our arithmetic from Apple’s SEC filings, not company statements. Apple did not say, in the reporting we read, what share of the outlook it attributes to the iPhone Duo, Siri or price increases. We did not contact Apple.
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Apple told analysts it expects December-quarter revenue to grow 7% to 10%, CNBC reported, or $153.8 billion to $158.1 billion on last year’s $143.756 billion, by our arithmetic. The 7% low end is the lowest of its last five outlooks, and the range implies a smaller step-up from September than the 40% of a year earlier. In three of the previous four quarters, reported growth finished above the top of the range Apple gave. Its gross-margin range of 45% to 46%, also reported by CNBC, is the lowest of the five as well, our count. Parekh attributed that range primarily to higher memory costs, with some costs from the ramp of Siri AI.
A note on sourcing. Apple’s December-quarter outlook and Ternus’s remarks come from CNBC’s live reporting of the 2 November results and call, and Parekh’s quoted prepared remarks from Six Colors’ in-progress transcript of the call; earlier outlooks come from CNBC’s October 2025 and July 2026 reports and Motley Fool transcripts of the January and April 2026 calls. Reported net sales come from Apple’s releases and SEC filings. Growth rates, dollar ranges and gaps are our arithmetic. We had not read an official transcript of the call when we wrote, and we did not contact Apple.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
