Kalshi traders put 90 cents on Anthropic confirming an IPO before 1 December, up from a previous price of 64 cents, the exchange’s market data showed at 23:03 UTC on 6 November. On Polymarket, the most-backed bracket for Anthropic’s valuation at its IPO price was $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion, at 43.7%.
On 2 November, the most-backed Polymarket bracket was one step higher, $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion, at 65.6% (our piece). Separately, on 6 November, the FT reported a $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion target range (our piece) and The Information reported a roadshow next week (our piece).
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The key insight: As we read the markets, traders priced an Anthropic IPO announcement as more likely on 6 November while Polymarket’s most-backed valuation bracket stepped down a level from 2 November.
Kalshi’s market asks “When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?” Its rules say: “If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.” (Kalshi).
At 23:03 UTC the last trade was 90 cents, with a bid of 87 cents and an ask of 91 cents. The previous price was 64 cents, so the contract is up 26 points, by our arithmetic. The contract is about an announcement, not a listing date or a price.
Polymarket Yes prices for each bracket of Anthropic’s valuation at its IPO price, read 6 November 2026 at 23:03 UTC. Each bracket trades separately, so the prices need not sum to 100%. These are prediction-market prices, not Anthropic shares.
What Polymarket Shows
Polymarket’s market asks “What will Anthropic’s IPO valuation be?” (Polymarket). At 23:03 UTC its Yes prices were 43.7% for $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion, 31.9% for $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion, 12.0% for $1.75 trillion to $2.00 trillion and 10.25% for below $1.25 trillion.
The two brackets inside the FT’s reported range add up to 75.6%, by our arithmetic. Each bracket trades as its own market, so the prices need not sum to 100%.
What the Perpetuals Show
Liquid quotes its ANTH contract as a valuation: “each point of price stands for $1.00B of Anthropic’s valuation”. Its market page, read at 23:03 UTC, showed $1,549.60, or about $1.550 trillion, “down 10.90% over the last 24 hours” (Liquid). Against the $1,738.25 we reported on 2 November, that is 10.9% lower, by our arithmetic.
trade.xyz’s xyz:ANT, which references one Anthropic share, was marked at $95.07 on Hyperliquid at 23:03 UTC, against a previous-day price of $110.04 (Hyperliquid). That is 13.6% lower, and 6.5% below the $101.68 we reported at 14:02 UTC (our piece), by our arithmetic. trade.xyz publishes no share count, so we do not turn that mark into a valuation.
Our Numbers
By our arithmetic: Kalshi’s announcement contract is up 26 points to 90 cents. Polymarket’s top bracket is $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion at 43.7%, and the two brackets in the FT’s range sum to 75.6%. Liquid’s $1.550 trillion is 10.9% below its 2 November level and 3.3% above the $1.5 trillion middle of the FT’s range.
Connecting the Coverage
Our earlier pieces tracked the Kalshi contract after the FT report (our piece). We also compared the reported $80 billion to $100 billion raise with SpaceX’s $86.25 billion IPO (our piece) and counted 12 Anthropic ETFs on file before the listing (our piece).
The Structural Read
As we read Kalshi’s rules, the 90-cent contract pays on Anthropic confirming an IPO before 1 December; it says nothing about the price.
As we read Polymarket, the brackets inside the FT’s reported range carry 75.6% between them, by our arithmetic, and the single most-backed bracket is the lower one.
As we read the two perpetuals, the valuation-quoted contract and the share-quoted contract both fell over the day, by 10.90% and 13.6%.
Kalshi market rules, KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26DEC01
“If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Three Implications
FOR READING THE ODDS Kalshi’s contract settles on an announcement, so a 90-cent price is a bet on timing, not on valuation.
FOR THE VALUATION Polymarket’s top bracket and Liquid’s $1.55 trillion both sit inside the FT’s reported $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion range.
FOR WHAT IS TRADABLE None of these contracts is Anthropic stock, and trade.xyz publishes no share count to turn its mark into a valuation.
The framework says: “AI exhibits genuine bubble characteristics โ excessive hype, overvaluation, capex commitments that exceed the unit economics of any single application โ at the same time as it exhibits genuine supercycle characteristics โ real productivity gains, fundamental restructuring of profit pools, civilizational impact.”
As we read it, these markets price both sides of that tension for one company at once: a higher price on an IPO announcement and a lower most-backed value. The framework predates these markets and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
These are prices on prediction markets and synthetic contracts, not Anthropic shares, and none sets the IPO price. Anthropic’s 2 November S-1/A left the offering price blank, and we found no newer filing on EDGAR at 22:35 UTC (our piece). Liquid’s page states its figure as of 6 November without a time; we give the time we read it. We read each venue’s public data once and did not contact Anthropic or the venues.
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Kalshi traders priced an Anthropic IPO announcement before 1 December at 90 cents, while Polymarket’s most-backed valuation bracket fell from $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion on 2 November to $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion on 6 November. Liquid’s perpetual put the company at about $1.55 trillion.
A note on sourcing. Market prices come from Kalshi, Polymarket, Liquid and Hyperliquid public data, read once at 23:03 UTC on 6 November, and from our earlier pieces where stated. The changes and sums are our arithmetic. These are not Anthropic shares, and nothing here is investment advice.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
