Liquid’s pre-IPO perpetual on Anthropic, ANTH, was priced at $1,738.25 on Monday, 2 November, which the venue’s market page says equals a valuation of about $1.738 trillion, down 3.45% over 24 hours. On Polymarket, the most-backed bracket for the valuation at Anthropic’s IPO price is $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion, at 65.6%.
The same bettors put the first-day closing market cap one bracket higher. By our arithmetic, the median bracket is $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion for the IPO price and $1.75 trillion to $2.0 trillion for the first-day close.
The key insight: Two venues are already pricing an Anthropic listing that has no offer price yet: Liquid’s ANTH perpetual put the company at about $1.738 trillion on 2 November, and Polymarket bettors put the IPO-price valuation one bracket below the first-day close, by our arithmetic.
Update, 2 Nov: Polymarket opens a perps contest with 3x scoring on Anthropic.Polymarket announced its first Perps Trading Competition on X at 18:30 UTC on 2 November: $50K paid out to the top 50 traders on Polymarket Perps, with 3x boosted scoring on its Anthropic pre-IPO contract, ANT, live through 16 November. The competition page says traders need $100K of notional volume to qualify and a positive PnL to win, and scores entries as PnL × √Boosted Volume; a 3x boost counts $100 traded as $300 and does not change PnL. Polymarket’s perps page lists $10K for first place. Its ANT page says the contract can be traded with up to 10x leverage, uses pUSD as collateral and has no expiry, and it showed a mark price of $1,736.4 and $2.31 million of 24-hour volume when we read it at about 18:50 UTC. By our arithmetic, the boost lifts the volume term of a score by about 1.73 times, the square root of 3, against the same volume on an unboosted market. As we read it, the contest adds a scoring incentive to trade ANT; it says nothing about Anthropic’s offer price.
Liquid says ANTH is quoted as a valuation, not a share price: “each point of price stands for $1.00B of Anthropic’s valuation”. It is a cash-settled perpetual against an oracle reference price, with no share ownership or IPO allocation rights. Over the 24 hours to our read, ANTH traded between $1,718.30 and $1,822.70, on $18.50 million of volume, the page says.
The account Unusual Whales wrote on X at 17:43 UTC that the Liquid perpetual is “now down over 15% in the last month”. Liquid’s public page shows only the 24-hour change, so we could not check the monthly figure.
A second contract, xyz:ANT on Hyperliquid, gives a full daily record. Its first daily candle on 26 October opened at $138.00 and closed at $114.35, and its mark was $108.02 at 17:54 UTC on 2 November, Hyperliquid’s public data shows. By our arithmetic, that is 21.7% below the first open and 5.5% below the first close. Its previous-day price was $112.05.
Polymarket odds by valuation bracket at about 17:52 UTC on 2 November 2026: the market on Anthropic’s valuation at its IPO price (teal) and the market on its first-day closing market cap (ochre), with Liquid’s ANTH perpetual at $1.738 trillion marked. Median brackets are our arithmetic.Animated: Hyperliquid xyz:ANT perpetual, US$ per contract, from its first open on 26 October to the 17:54 UTC mark on 2 November. Percent changes are our arithmetic; a contract price, not a share price. Source: Hyperliquid public market data.
What Polymarket Bettors Price
Polymarket’s IPO valuation market resolves on the implied equity valuation at the IPO price in the final prospectus. When we read it at about 17:52 UTC it showed $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion at 65.6%, $1.75 trillion to $2.00 trillion at 25%, $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion at 6.7% and under $1.25 trillion at 3.8%.
The separate closing market cap market resolves on the market capitalisation at the close of the first trading day. It showed $1.75 trillion to $2.0 trillion at 34%, $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion at 21.1%, $2.0 trillion to $2.25 trillion at 18.1% and $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion at 13.6%.
On timing, the IPO-by-date market showed 41% for a listing by 19 November, 57% by 20 November, 83% by 30 November and 91% by 31 December.
How We Read the Two Markets Together
Cumulating the displayed odds from the lowest bracket, the IPO-price market passes 50% inside $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion, at 76.1%. The first-day close market passes 50% inside $1.75 trillion to $2.0 trillion, at 73.7%. Both figures are our arithmetic, and the displayed odds are rounded prices that do not sum to exactly 100%.
Liquid’s $1.738 trillion sits near the top of the IPO-price market’s leading bracket and just below the first-day close market’s leading bracket. The perpetual is a contract on an oracle price, not an offer price, and the two Polymarket markets resolve on different numbers.
As we read it, the two Polymarket markets ask different questions: one resolves on the offer price in the final prospectus, the other on the first-day closing price, and bettors gave them different leading brackets.
As we read the perpetuals, they move before any share exists: xyz:ANT was 21.7% below its first open by our arithmetic, while Liquid shows only a 24-hour change on its public page.
Liquid, ANTH market page, 2 Nov 2026
“each point of price stands for $1.00B of Anthropic’s valuation”
Three Implications
FOR IPO WATCHERS Polymarket showed 57% for a listing by 20 November and 91% by 31 December when we read it.
FOR PRICING The IPO-price market’s leading bracket was $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion at 65.6%; the first-day close market’s was $1.75 trillion to $2.0 trillion at 34%.
FOR PERP TRADERS Liquid says ANTH is cash-settled against an oracle reference price and gives no share ownership or IPO allocation rights.
The framework reads: “The job of any operator, investor, or builder is to know which layer they are operating inside and which layer the binding constraint is rotating toward next.”
As we read it, the prices above are traders’ bets on that question for one company, before its own shares trade. The framework was published in June 2026 and does not discuss these markets.
These are trading prices and betting odds, not an IPO price; Anthropic has not set one. Liquid’s monthly change is Unusual Whales’ figure, which we could not check on the venue’s page. The IPO valuation market showed $309,397 of total volume and the closing market cap market $3,125,379, Polymarket’s pages show. Perpetual prices rest on oracle or reference prices before a listing. We did not contact Anthropic, Liquid, Hyperliquid or Polymarket.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
Anthropic’s Reality Check, The Capital Squeeze, & The New World Order
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a growthstory. This week it started being priced as a credit story.
On 2 November, Liquid’s ANTH perpetual implied about $1.738 trillion for Anthropic, and Polymarket’s most-backed bracket for the IPO-price valuation was $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion, at 65.6%.
A note on sourcing. Liquid figures are from its ANTH market page and Polymarket odds from its market pages, read at about 17:50 UTC on 2 November; xyz:ANT figures are from Hyperliquid’s public API at 17:54 UTC. Odds and prices move continuously. The monthly decline is Unusual Whales’ figure. Cumulative odds and percentage changes are our arithmetic. This is not investment advice, and we did not contact the companies.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
