A crypto perpetual contract on Anthropic traded at $111.10 at 03:04 UTC on 1 November, according to Hyperliquid’s public market data for trade.xyz’s xyz:ANT market. That is about 1.88 times the Series H share price implied by PitchBook’s figures, by our arithmetic.
On the same per-share basis, the price maps to about $1.88 trillion for the company and sits about 32% above PitchBook’s own value of about $84 a share, by our arithmetic.
Short explainer · Anthropic’s perp at 1.88x its Series H price
A vertical news Short summarising this story. Figures come from Hyperliquid market data, Markets Media and PitchBook; our arithmetic is labelled.
Business Pill · Power Law
A short explainer on power-law outcomes in markets. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about this contract.
The key insight: As we read it, Anthropic already has a traded price weeks before Nasdaq: the xyz:ANT perpetual marked $111.10 at 03:04 UTC on 1 November, about 1.88 times the Series H share price implied by PitchBook’s figures, by our arithmetic.
The market went live on Hyperliquid after Anthropic filed its S-1 on 26 October, Markets Media reported on 27 October. TradeXYZ, a perpetual futures exchange on Hyperliquid, lists it. Markets Media says the contracts give synthetic exposure: they are not shares, IPO allocations, tokenized equity or claims on the issuer, and holders get no ownership, dividends, voting rights or allocation rights.
Before a listing there is no public equity price, so the market runs on a discretionary reference price, the report says. The Hyperliquid Research Collective said the contract converts to a standard perpetual once Anthropic trades on Nasdaq, which it expects around 20 November, with a 60-day grace period if the IPO slips.
Anthropic per share: the xyz:ANT perpetual marked $111.10 at 03:04 UTC on 1 November (Hyperliquid public market data), against PitchBook’s value of about $84 and the Series H price of about $59 implied by PitchBook’s figures (Markets Media). The Series H price, share count, $1.88 trillion and ratios are our arithmetic.
What the Market Data Shows
Hyperliquid’s info endpoint listed xyz:ANT with leverage of up to 10 times, a mark price of $111.10 and a prior-day price of $112.77 when we checked at 03:04 UTC. Open interest stood at about 349,793 contracts, or about $38.9 million at the mark by our arithmetic, and 24-hour trading volume at about $6.46 million. The venue caps open interest in the market at $100 million.
On 26 October, Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) wrote on X that the “Anthropic token on Hyperliquid” was “Currently pricing the company at around 1.88 trillion”. Markets Media also quotes Blockworks’ OxResearch: “Both markets value Anthropic at nearly double its Series H valuation”, referring to xyz:ANT and Entropy’s rival io:ANTH.
How We Turned the Price Into a Valuation
trade.xyz’s market data does not give a share count, so we used PitchBook’s. Its analyst Harrison Rolfes valued Anthropic at $1.42 trillion, about $84 a share, and wrote: “Our value of about $84 a share is 42% above the Series H share price”. That implies about 16.9 billion shares and a Series H price of about $59.15, by our arithmetic.
At $111.10, the contract is therefore about 1.88 times that Series H price and about 32% above PitchBook’s $84. The same mapping gives about $1.88 trillion, about 6% below the reported $2 trillion IPO valuation that PitchBook cites.
The Business Lever: A Price Before There Is a Price
Markets Media cites analyst Petro Dmytrilev’s count that across six earlier pre-IPO perpetuals on Hyperliquid the stock opened, on average, within 25% of the perp’s price the night before. For SpaceX, he wrote, the $150 issue price was 15% below the $177 perp mark.
The Structural Read
As we read the contract, it is a bet on the listing price rather than a claim on the company: Markets Media says holders get no shares, ownership, dividends, voting rights or allocation rights.
As we read the numbers, the perp sits about 32% above PitchBook’s value of about $84 a share and about 6% below the reported $2 trillion IPO valuation, by our arithmetic on PitchBook’s per-share mapping.
As we read the record Markets Media cites, the test comes at the listing: across six earlier pre-IPO perps on Hyperliquid, the stock opened, on average, within 25% of the perp’s price the night before.
OxResearch (Blockworks), quoted by Markets Media
“Until a price range is set closer to the IPO date, the xyz:ANT and io:ANTH markets remain the closest thing to a live market price”
Three Implications
FOR PRICE DISCOVERY Hyperliquid’s market data showed xyz:ANT at $111.10 with up to 10x leverage and about $6.46 million of 24-hour volume when we checked.
FOR VALUATION PitchBook’s Harrison Rolfes valued Anthropic at $1.42 trillion, about $84 a share, which he wrote is 42% above the Series H share price.
FOR THE CONVERSION The Hyperliquid Research Collective said the contract converts to a standard perpetual once Anthropic trades on Nasdaq, expected around 20 November, with a 60-day grace period if the IPO slips.
The framework frames its subject as “How the money flows, where it cracks, what it buys, who can absorb it, and what happens when revenue can’t catch up.”
As we read it, the perp is one place where the money already flows before the IPO: traders price Anthropic at about 1.88 times its Series H share price by our arithmetic. The framework is the owner’s argument and does not discuss this market.
The valuation figures rest on PitchBook’s per-share mapping, not on a share count published by trade.xyz or Anthropic; the S-1 we cite elsewhere may imply a different count. The contract is synthetic exposure, not a share, and its price can move sharply; nothing here is investment advice. We read the market data at one moment, 03:04 UTC, and did not contact trade.xyz, Hyperliquid or Anthropic.
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At 03:04 UTC on 1 November the xyz:ANT perpetual traded at $111.10, which on PitchBook’s per-share figures is about 1.88 times Anthropic’s Series H share price and about 32% above PitchBook’s value, by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. Contract facts and quotes come from Markets Media’s 27 October article; prices, open interest and volume come from Hyperliquid’s public market data for trade.xyz’s xyz:ANT market, read at 03:04 UTC on 1 November. The share count, Series H price, $1.88 trillion and ratios are our arithmetic on PitchBook’s figures. This is not investment advice. We did not contact the companies.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
