Nvidia’s options are pricing a move of about 9.6% in either direction for the week of its 17 November results, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq option quotes. At Friday’s $162.85 close, the at-the-money straddle expiring on 20 November cost $15.70, which on about 24.1 billion shares is a swing of about $378 billion in market value.
That is larger than the stock’s actual move in any of its last eight report weeks, which averaged 3.81% by our arithmetic from Nasdaq’s official closes. The largest was a 7.07% fall in February 2025, and the largest one-day move after results was a rise of 8.74% in August 2026.
Business Pill · Financial Conditions
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on financial conditions. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Nvidia or its options.
The key insight: As we read the quotes, the options market is pricingNvidia’s report week at about 2.5 times its recent norm: a 9.64% straddle against a 3.81% average move across the last eight report weeks, by our arithmetic. The price covers five sessions, so it carries the week’s other news as well as the results.
Nasdaq’s option chain for the contracts expiring on 20 November shows the $162.50 call last traded at $8.05 and the $162.50 put at $7.65, as of the 13 November close. Buying both, a straddle, cost $15.70, and the bid and ask midpoints give the same total.
Divided by the $162.85 close, $15.70 is 9.64%, by our arithmetic, a common rough reading of the move the market prices by expiry. It spans a range of about $147.15 to $178.55 a share.
Nvidia’s 10-Q for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 lists 24.1 billion shares outstanding. At $162.85, that is a market value of about $3.92 trillion, and $15.70 a share is about $378 billion, by our arithmetic.
The 20 November contracts cover five sessions, 16 to 20 November, so the price covers the whole week and not only the report. Nvidia said on 28 October that its results would be “publicly announced at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT”, about 21:20 UTC on Tuesday, 17 November, with the call at 2 p.m. PT.
The size of Nvidia’s stock move in each of its last eight report weeks, Friday close to Friday close, against the move its 20 November straddle prices for the week of the 17 November results. Moves and the implied figure are our arithmetic from Nasdaq’s official closes and option quotes.
The Last Eight Reports
We measured each of Nvidia’s last eight report weeks from the close on the Friday before results to the close on the Friday after, using the results dates of its 8-K filings with the SEC. That is the same window a weekly option spans.
The stock fell in six of the eight weeks: by 7.07% in February 2025, 6.65% in February 2026, 5.94% in November 2025, 4.43% in May 2026, 2.14% in August 2025 and 0.02% in November 2024. It rose by 2.92% in May 2025 and 1.32% in August 2026.
The average absolute move was 3.81%, so the 9.64% now priced is about 2.5 times that, by our arithmetic. Measured on the day after results alone, the moves averaged 4.02%, and the stock fell after five of the eight reports.
The two largest one-day moves ran in opposite directions: down 8.48% after the February 2025 report and up 8.74% after the August 2026 report. Both are below the 9.64% now priced for the week.
The Week Into the Report
The option prices come after a falling week. Nvidia closed at $186.64 on 6 November and at $162.85 on 13 November, a fall of 12.7%, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq’s closes, larger than the stock’s move in any of the eight report weeks above.
Nvidia’s own revenue outlook for the quarter, $108.0 billion plus or minus 2%, and what the report tests are in our preview of the guide. The week’s full calendar, including the expected $109 billion revenue figure, is in our week-ahead piece.
The Structural Read
As we read the eight report weeks, the larger moves were falls: six of the eight weeks closed lower, and the three largest, 7.07%, 6.65% and 5.94%, were all down, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq’s closes.
As we read the setup, the 12.7% fall from 6 November to 13 November came before the report, so the option prices were set after a week in which the stock already moved more than in any of the eight report weeks we measured.
NVIDIA, 28 October 2026
“to discuss its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2027, which ended October 25, 2026”
Three Implications
FOR HOLDERS A 9.64% move on 24.1 billion shares at $162.85 is about $378 billion of market value in either direction, by our arithmetic.
FOR THE REPORT Results are due at about 1:20 p.m. PT on 17 November and the call at 2 p.m. PT, per NVIDIA; the option prices change until then.
The framework argues: “The bubble can pop on the short cycle while the supercycle continues uninterrupted on the long cycle”.
As we read it, a weekly straddle is a short-cycle price: it measures what traders pay for five sessions of Nvidia risk, 9.64% by our arithmetic, and says nothing about the long cycle. The framework predates these option prices and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
A straddle price is not a forecast of direction, and the 9.64% is a rough reading of one strike’s last trades on 13 November. Option prices change through Monday and Tuesday, and other methods, such as implied volatility across several strikes, give somewhat different figures.
The comparison sets a five-session option against past five-session moves; it does not separate the report from other news in each week. The $378 billion uses the share count on the 10-Q cover, not a live count. We did not contact Nvidia for this piece.
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Nvidia’s 20 November options price a move of about 9.6%, or about $378 billion of market value, for the week of its 17 November results, by our arithmetic from Nasdaq quotes. Across its last eight report weeks the stock moved 3.81% on average and 7.07% at most, according to Nasdaq’s official closes.
A note on sourcing. Share prices are Nasdaq’s official closes and the option prices are the last trades on Nasdaq’s NVDA option chain for the 20 November expiry, as of the 13 November close, read on 15 November. Results dates are the filing dates of NVIDIA’s Item 2.02 8-Ks on SEC EDGAR, the share count is from the cover of its 10-Q for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, and the results timing is from NVIDIA’s 28 October release.
The implied move, the market values, the report-week and day-after moves and the averages are our arithmetic. NVIDIA was not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
