Elon Musk wrote on X on 25 October 2026: “I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers.” The post gives no figures, sites or dates. Eleven days earlier, on 14 October 2026, the US Department of Agriculture announced a $3.3 billion loan to Oglethorpe Power for a 1,425-megawatt gas plant in Monroe County, Georgia, which USDA called the largest in the history of its Rural Utilities Service.
This piece sets Musk’s line beside the power deals and power limits in our October reporting: who is paying for new generation, which projects need permits during a freeze, and how much more electricity one data centre hub says it needs. The figures use different measures, so they are set side by side and not added up, except where we label our own arithmetic.
This Week In The AI Supercycle · VIDEO
The Business Engineer’s explainer for the week of 18 to 24 October 2026, including the grid becoming the buyer’s job. It was made before this piece and does not discuss Musk’s post.
Business Pill · LEAD TIME
A short explainer of lead time: why the wait is part of the price. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about Elon Musk or USDA.
The key insight: As we read it, Musk’s line and the power deals describe the same gap from two sides: his post speaks of compute in “partially complete data centers,” while USDA, Amazon and Texas builders show new generation being financed, funded or needing permits during a freeze, and Johor counts an additional 4 GW to 5 GW its pipeline still needs.
Musk was replying to a post by Yuchen Jin on X. His reply is one sentence and does not say which data centers are meant, why they would be partially complete, or when. It is a post on X, not a company statement.
Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) wrote on X that the line is about GPUs that “arrive faster than power infrastructure needed to run them.” Boloor wrote that it “could actually keep GPU rental prices higher for longer as companies with power already secured benefit from tight supply.” That is Boloor’s reading, not Musk’s.
Johor’s pipeline still needs an additional 4 GW to 5 GW, according to Lee Ting Han (Bernama, 25 October 2026), against about 2.4 GW from Oglethorpe’s 1,425 MW Georgia plant and AEP’s 960 MW Indiana nuclear plan combined; the sum is our arithmetic, and the Indiana plan has no investment decision yet.
What Was Posted on X
Morgan Stanley sees ~160 GW of U.S. data center power demand through 2029 against an insane ~77 GW shortfall leaving nearly half of that demand at risk of going unpowered.
Thatโs a massive opportunity for $GEV with its sold-out gas turbines and $BE with onsite fuel cells that can generate electricity without relying on turbines.
And getting that power into AI data centers creates another opportunity for $VRT in power delivery and cooling, $FPS in transformers and prefabricated electrical systems and $ON and $NVTS in improving efficiency through SiC and GaN.
@StockSavvyShay posted on 25 October that Morgan Stanley sees about 160 GW of US data center power demand through 2029 against a roughly 77 GW shortfall, leaving nearly half of that demand at risk of going unpowered. The post names tickers it sees as beneficiaries, including $GEV for gas turbines and $BE for onsite fuel cells; those are the poster’s views.
Three Ways New Power Gets Paid For
A federal rural lender. USDA said the Oglethorpe loan “is the largest ever delivered in the history of USDA Rural Development’s Rural Utilities Service.” Reuters reported that USDA’s Glen Smith said the plant could support growing industry in Georgia, including potentially data centers, and that Google bought nearly 1,000 acres in Monroe County last year for a data center. Oglethorpe told Reuters: “This facility is not dedicated to serving a data center.”
A cloud buyer funding a reactor plan. American Electric Power said on 19 October 2026 that Amazon would fund development of a 960-megawatt advanced nuclear plan in Sullivan County, Indiana, and intends to buy the power under a long-term contract “covering the costs of the facility and its operations for the duration of the contract.” Bloomberg reported that a decision on whether to proceed is expected by late 2029.
Builders making their own power, now waiting on permits. The research firm SemiAnalysis said on 24 October 2026 that six Texas data center campuses planning on-site generation, “8.7GW in all,” need air permits while Governor Greg Abbott’s permit freeze is in force. SemiAnalysis said the 8.7GW is campus size “rather than what gets delayed,” and its base case is that the regulator resumes in December after the grid operator ERCOT reports on 10 December.
How Much Power One Hub Says It Needs
In Malaysia, Johor’s state investment committee chairman Lee Ting Han said on 25 October 2026 that the state has approved 65 data centre projects. “Of these, 21 data centres have started operations and they are expected to consume nearly 1.1 GW of electricity, while projects that are still under construction or in the planning stage will require an additional 4 GW to 5 GW,” Lee said, Bernama reported.
Bernama also reported that BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, estimated Johor’s data centres would need about 30 terawatt-hours a year by 2031, or 18% of Peninsular Malaysia’s total electricity supply, up from 6% this year. The same weekend Bloomberg reported, citing Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, that SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son chose sites in Malaysia for $50 billion of technology investment. Johor is not one of the sites Anwar named.
Item
Figure
Source
Oglethorpe gas plant, Georgia
1,425 MW; $3.3 billion USDA loan
USDA release, 14 Oct; Oglethorpe project page
AEP nuclear plan, Indiana
960 MW; Amazon funds development
AEP, 19 Oct
Texas campuses needing air permits during the freeze
8.7GW of campus size, six campuses
SemiAnalysis, 24 Oct
Johor data centres operating
Nearly 1.1 GW, 21 centres
Lee Ting Han via Bernama, 25 Oct
Johor projects still to come
Additional 4 GW to 5 GW
Lee Ting Han via Bernama, 25 Oct
USDA loan requests
Almost $8.6 billion, one month into the fiscal year
Glen Smith via Reuters, 16 Oct
Sources: as listed in each row. The rows measure different things and are not combined.
By our arithmetic, the Georgia plant and the Indiana plan together come to 2,385 MW, about 2.4 GW. Johor alone says its pipeline needs an additional 4 GW to 5 GW. The Indiana plan has no investment decision yet, and the Georgia plant is expected to begin commercial operation in 2029, according to Oglethorpe.
Update (25 Oct): Morgan Stanley’s 76.5 GW gap. A Morgan Stanley Research chart titled “US Data Center Power Shortfall Through 2029 โ Midpoint Scenario” puts total US data center power demand at 160 GW. It subtracts 21.8 GW for data centers under construction, 36.2 GW of utility grid access, 22.8 GW of behind-the-meter turbines and engines in backlog and 2.8 GW of probability-weighted nuclear plant siting, and shows a net shortfall of 76.5 GW through 2029. The chart, sourced to “Morgan Stanley Research estimates”, was shared on X on 25 October by @StockSavvyShay.
Eastmoney, citing CLS, reported the same estimate on 12 October: about 160 GW of new US data center power demand from 2026 to 2029 and a gap of roughly 77 GW after existing grid capacity and procured generation equipment. We have not seen the underlying Morgan Stanley note.
Update (25 Oct): on-site power at Nebius’s New Jersey site. Bloom Energy chief executive KR Sridhar said on the company’s 22 October earnings call that the first fuel-cell power block at Nebius’s planned 300 MW AI data center in Vineland, New Jersey is ready for customer use, Blockspace reported. Sridhar described planning-board approval within three months of the 14 May contract and the first power block two months after that. The block’s megawatt output was not disclosed, and Blockspace reported that the data center itself was not yet online.
Nebius signed with Bloom in May for behind-the-meter fuel-cell power, DCD reported, with 328 MW for a first project at a site DCD did not name. In August, Vineland officials issued a second stop-construction order over Bloom fuel cells installed without the required permits and a related LNG tank still awaiting approval, Crypto Briefing reported.
What this piece adds is the pairing: Musk’s line about chips without finished sites, set beside three different payers for new generation and one hub’s own count of the power its pipeline still needs.
The Structural Read
As we read it, the payers differ: a federal rural lender in Georgia, a cloud buyer funding a reactor plan in Indiana, and campuses building their own plants in Texas.
As we read it, timing is the common constraint in the sources: Oglethorpe expects commercial operation in 2029, Bloomberg reports a late-2029 decision for the Indiana plan, and SemiAnalysis’s base case has Texas permits resuming after ERCOT’s 10 December report.
As we read it, the demand side is counted in gigawatts: Johor alone says its pipeline needs an additional 4 GW to 5 GW, against about 2.4 GW from the Georgia plant and Indiana plan combined, by our arithmetic.
“I think weโre going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers”
Three Implications
FOR CHIP BUYERS Musk’s post speaks of compute in “partially complete data centers”; Boloor wrote that companies “with power already secured” could benefit.
FOR UTILITIES AND LENDERS USDA’s Glen Smith told Reuters the agency has almost $8.6 billion in loan requests one month into its fiscal year.
FOR DATA CENTRE HUBS Johor says its 21 operating data centres use nearly 1.1 GW and the rest of its approved pipeline needs an additional 4 GW to 5 GW.
The analysis puts it this way: “Companies that solve the power equation will dominate the AI era; those that don’t will watch their chips sit idle.”
As we read it, Musk’s “stranded compute” line describes chips without a finished site, and this piece lists three ways the power side is being paid for. The analysis was published in December 2025 and does not discuss these deals.
What Is Not Established
Musk did not name any site, company or amount, and his post does not mention power. Boloor’s link between the post and power supply is Boloor’s reading. No data center customer for the Georgia plant has been named, and Oglethorpe says the plant is not dedicated to one. Neither Anwar nor Bloomberg’s opening links SoftBank’s $50 billion to Johor’s power needs. The SemiAnalysis count is SemiAnalysis’s and does not name the campuses. We did not contact any of the companies.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
Execution Fault Lines, Concentrated Demand, and Geopolitical Firewalls
This week’s issue: the AI build is not short of demand for its parts. It is short of cheap money, and its end revenue rests on a narrow base of large, often venture-funded buyers.
Musk wrote that he expects “a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers.” In the same weeks, USDA lent $3.3 billion for a 1,425-megawatt Georgia plant and Amazon agreed to fund development of a 960-megawatt reactor plan. SemiAnalysis counted six Texas campuses, 8.7GW of campus size, that need air permits during a permit freeze, and Johor said its data centre pipeline needs an additional 4 GW to 5 GW.
A note on sourcing. This analysis sets side by side facts from Elon Musk’s X post of 25 October 2026, USDA’s release of 14 October 2026, Reuters (16 October), Oglethorpe Power’s project page, AEP’s release of 19 October, a SemiAnalysis thread of 24 October and Bernama’s report of 25 October, as covered in our earlier pieces. The figures measure different things; the one combined figure is labelled as our arithmetic. We did not contact the companies.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
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