HubSpot and monday.com, the two software companies investor BuccoCapital named on X on 30 October as casualties of a search “funnel collapse”, trade at 28.9% and 29.4% of their two-year closing highs. At today’s share counts that is about $38.9 billion below those highs, by our arithmetic, or roughly 5.3 times the $7.3 billion Reddit shed in a single session on 30 October.
The comparison mixes a decline that built since February 2025 with one day’s move, so it measures scale, not cause. Prices are intraday, read at about 16:10 UTC.
Business Pill · Distribution Advantage
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on distribution advantage. It explains the general idea only and does not discuss Reddit, HubSpot or monday.com.
The key insight: HubSpot and monday.com trade at 28.9% and 29.4% of their February 2025 closing highs, about $38.9 billion below them at today’s share counts by our arithmetic, while Reddit’s 10-Q filed on 30 October links AI-generated search summaries to increased volatility in its referral traffic.
Reddit’s quarterly report, filed on 30 October, states that “the evolution of third-party search, including the increasing use of artificial intelligence to generate summaries and overviews, has resulted in increased volatility in referral traffic”. Its risk factors add that competitors “like Google, operate third-party search engines that are increasingly integrating AI-generated summaries and answers into their user experiences”.
The same filing shows third-quarter revenue of $895.0 million against $584.9 million a year earlier, up 53.0% by our arithmetic. It also discloses a securities class action alleging false or misleading statements “concerning the impact of Google Search and its AI Overviews feature on our business”. Reddit shares were down 29.3% at about 16:10 UTC, which is about $7.3 billion on 193.1 million Class A and Class B shares, by our arithmetic. We covered the call in the Reddit CEO piece and the revenue math in our Google Search $67-to-$1 piece.
Market value at today’s share counts, at each stock’s February 2025 closing high and on 30 October 2026 (intraday, ~16:10 UTC): HubSpot $40.9B to $11.8B, monday.com $13.9B to $4.1B, together $38.9B lower (our arithmetic from Yahoo Finance prices and the companies’ filings).
What Was Posted on X
Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going – AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience – AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search – AI Mose incentivizes dialog, Google wants to keep you engaged to serve more ads at each turn – Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company – As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet – This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations – This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and http://Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse
We are entering the end game – a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
BuccoCapital on X, 30 October, on Reddit’s earnings call: he writes that AI Mode means “less incentive to leave search”, that this is “a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB”, and that “companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse”. These are his views.
The Claim Being Tested
BuccoCapital, whose post on Reddit’s call had more than 160,000 views by 16:15 UTC, wrote that AI Mode means “less incentive to leave search” and that the shift is “a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB”. He wrote: “You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse”. That is his reading; the filings below are the test.
What HubSpot’s Filings Say
HubSpot reported second-quarter revenue of $911.7 million, up 20%, and 306,446 customers, up 14%, in its 5 August release, and guided third-quarter revenue up 14%. Its quarterly report lists competition from “non-specialist solutions relying on generic large language models” and from software made with natural-language prompts as risks. The report we read does not quantify any change in search traffic.
On 1 October HubSpot cut about 7% of its workforce, “nearly 660 HubSpotters”, and estimated charges of $65 million to $75 million. The chief executive’s message to staff, filed with the SEC, says: “This is not driven by AI-related efficiencies”.
What monday.com’s Filings Say
monday.com reported second-quarter revenue of $364.6 million, up 22%. Its first-half management discussion lists among its risks “our reliance on web search engines, both traditional and AI-generated, to direct traffic to our website”.
The same document shows sales and marketing at about 46% of revenue in the first half of 2026, against 51% a year earlier, and says the company has been “rebalancing investments away from certain online marketing channels toward initiatives that we believe support long-term customer relationships and higher value contracts”. It disclosed a plan to cut about 20% of its workforce. Ordinary shares outstanding fell 17.4% between 31 December 2025 and 30 June 2026, from 51.2 million to 42.3 million, by our arithmetic.
The Structural Read
As we read the three filings, only Reddit’s describes a measured effect of AI search on its own traffic, as volatility in referral traffic; monday.com lists reliance on AI-generated search as a risk, and HubSpot’s report does not quantify any change in search traffic.
As we read the numbers, the 5.3x compares a decline that built since February 2025 with one session’s intraday move on 30 October, so it shows scale, not cause.
As we read BuccoCapital’s post, the funnel-collapse argument is his opinion; the filings show second-quarter revenuegrowth of 20% at HubSpot and 22% at monday.com, and both companies have announced workforce cuts this year.
Reddit, Form 10-Q for the quarter to 30 September 2026
“the evolution of third-party search, including the increasing use of artificial intelligence to generate summaries and overviews, has resulted in increased volatility in referral traffic.”
Three Implications
FOR REDDIT Reddit’s 10-Q links AI-generated summaries in third-party search to increased volatility in referral traffic, and discloses a securities class action concerning the impact of Google Search and its AI Overviews feature on its business.
FOR MONDAY.COM monday.com’s first-half report says sales and marketing was about 46% of revenue against 51% a year earlier; it also says it has been rebalancing investments away from certain online marketing channels.
FOR HUBSPOT HubSpot cut about 7% of its workforce on 1 October, and its chief executive wrote to staff that the cut is not driven by AI-related efficiencies.
The framework says “The app stops being a destination and becomes a capability the harness invokes.”
The framework is the owner’s argument about AI agents, not evidence about this story; it does not discuss Reddit, HubSpot or monday.com.
What Is Not Established
Neither HubSpot’s nor monday.com’s filings that we read put a number on traffic lost to AI search. Both still reported second-quarter revenuegrowth of 20% or more: HubSpot 20%, monday.com 22%. monday.com names AI-generated search as a traffic risk and has moved spending away from some online channels; HubSpot’s chief executive says its cuts are not about AI efficiencies. The 71% falls in both stocks since February 2025 have many possible causes, and the filings do not attribute them to search.
Execution Fault Lines, Concentrated Demand, and Geopolitical Firewalls
This week’s issue: the AI build is not short of demand for its parts. It is short of cheap money, and its end revenue rests on a narrow base of large, often venture-funded buyers.
Reddit’s own filing now links AI-generated search summaries to swings in its referral traffic, and its shares fell 29.3% intraday on 30 October. HubSpot and monday.com sit about $38.9 billion below their February 2025 highs at today’s share counts, 5.3 times Reddit’s one-day loss by our arithmetic, but their filings report second-quarter revenuegrowth of 20% and 22%, with HubSpot guiding to 14% for the third quarter, and do not quantify a search-traffic hit.
A note on sourcing. Company figures and quotations come from Reddit’s, HubSpot’s and monday.com’s SEC filings; share prices are intraday Yahoo Finance quotes read at about 16:10 UTC on 30 October 2026. Figures labelled our arithmetic are our own calculations.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
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