Dutch Bros now guides 2026 capital expenditures of $370 million to $390 million, up from $350 million to $370 million in August, and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $380 million, down from $385 million to $390 million, according to its third-quarter results release filed on 4 November. At the midpoints, capex now equals 100% of guided adjusted EBITDA, against about 93% in August, by our arithmetic.
The drive-thru coffee chain also guides 2027 total system shop openings of approximately 250, which its release headline calls an accelerated goal, system shop openings, about 35% more than the at least 185 it still guides for 2026, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Free Cash Flow
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on free cash flow. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Dutch Bros.
The key insight: Dutch Bros now guides 2026 capex equal to its adjusted EBITDA, about $380 million each at the midpoints, against about 93% in August, by our arithmetic, while ticket supplied 4.4 points of its 5.4% company-operated same shop sales growth.
The August second-quarter release guided capex of $350 million to $370 million, a $360 million midpoint, against adjusted EBITDA of $385 million to $390 million, a $387.5 million midpoint. The November guide moves the capex midpoint up $20 million, to $380 million, and the adjusted EBITDA figure down about $7.5 million, by our arithmetic.
Two other lines moved from ranges to floors. Total revenues are now projected to be at least $2.1 billion, against approximately $2.1 billion to $2.13 billion. Same shop sales growth is now estimated to be at least 5%, against a range of 5% to 6%.
Over nine months, net cash used in investing activities was $307.9 million, against $297.0 million provided by operating activities. Cash and cash equivalents fell to $194.6 million from $269.4 million at the end of 2025. The quarter included the reacquisition of the Phoenix East Valley franchise, which the release says consisted of 32 locations; the shop-count table records 30 acquired franchise shops.
Dutch Bros’ fiscal 2026 guidance midpoints in its 5 August and 4 November 2026 results releases. Capex: $350 million to $370 million, then $370 million to $390 million ($360 million to $380 million at the midpoints). Adjusted EBITDA: $385 million to $390 million, then approximately $380 million. Midpoints are our arithmetic.
Same Shop Sales: 🔹 Systemwide: +4.4% 🔹 Company-Operated: +5.4% 🔹 New Shops: 48, including 42 company-operated
FY26 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: At least $2.1B (Est. $2.13B) 🟡 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: ~$380M (Est. $384M) 🔴 🔹 Same Shop Sales Growth: At least 5% 🔹 CapEx: $370M-$390M 🔹 System Shop Openings: At least 185; unchanged
2027 Outlook: 🔹 System Shop Openings: Approximately 250
Comments: 🔸 “As we look ahead to 2027, we’re building on that foundation and unlocking new growth opportunities across the business.”
Wall St Engine’s earnings card for Dutch Bros’ third quarter of 2026, posted on 4 November. It lists revenue of $549.8 million against a $547 million estimate and a full-year adjusted EBITDA guide of approximately $380 million against a $384 million estimate. The piece checks each company figure against Dutch Bros’ filed release.
Ticket Did the Work, Visits Slowed
Company-operated same shop sales rose 5.4%, made of a 4.4% rise in ticket and a 1.0% rise in customer visits. A year earlier the 7.4% rise was a 0.6% rise in ticket and a 6.8% rise in visits. Systemwide same shop sales rose 4.4%, with visits up 0.4%. In the second quarter, company-operated same shop sales had risen 8.3%.
Total revenues rose 29.8% to $549.8 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 29.6% to $101.1 million, an 18.4% margin, level with a year earlier. Net income was $37.2 million, against $27.3 million. Dutch Bros opened 48 shops, 42 of them company-operated, and ended September with 1,273.
Chief executive Christine Barone said: “From accelerating our pace of beverage innovation to testing new hot food platforms, enhancing digital capabilities and piloting delivery, we’re creating more reasons for new and existing customers to choose Dutch Bros.” Wall St Engine’s earnings card listed a $384 million consensus for the full-year adjusted EBITDA figure, and its follow-up post said the shares fell 18% after hours.
The Form 144s Filed After the Release
At 21:30 UTC, about 15 minutes after the 8-K, two Form 144notices were filed for proposed sales of Dutch Bros common stock on or about 4 November. DM Trust Aggregator, LLC listed 672,932 shares with an aggregate market value of $29.3 million, and DM Individual Aggregator, LLC listed 359,284 shares worth $15.7 million. Both are described as a 10% stockholder.
Together that is 1,032,216 shares and about $45.0 million, about 0.75% of the 137,940,798 shares the forms list as outstanding, by our arithmetic. The shares are founders shares acquired in 2018, sold under a 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on 19 February 2026. The forms also list 1,967,784 shares sold by the two entities between 20 October and 3 November for about $87.2 million. Including 4 November, that is 3,000,000 shares and about $132.1 million, by our arithmetic.
As we read the two guides, the gap between what the business is expected to earn and what it plans to spend on building closed from both sides: capex up about $20 million, adjusted EBITDA down about $7.5 million, by our arithmetic.
As we read the same shop table, the growth mix flipped in a year: in the third quarter of 2025 visits drove company-operated same shop sales, and in 2026 ticket did.
Christine Barone, Dutch Bros CEO and President, Q3 2026 release, 4 November 2026
“In the third quarter, we achieved our fourteenth consecutive quarter of positive same shop sales and ninth consecutive quarter of same shop customer visit growth”
Three Implications
FOR THE BUILD-OUT Dutch Bros guides capex of $370 million to $390 million for 2026 and approximately 250 system shop openings for 2027.
FOR THE SHOPS Company-operated same shop sales rose 5.4%, with customer visits up 1.0%, against 6.8% a year earlier.
FOR HOLDERS Two 10% stockholders filed Form 144 notices for 1,032,216 shares, about $45.0 million, under a 10b5-1 plan adopted in February, by our arithmetic.
The framework opens its read of the hyperscalers with: “The Big Four lifted their 2026 capex guides in unison.”
As we read it, the same question it asks of AI spenders, how much of operating profit goes back into building, applies to a drive-thru chain: Dutch Bros now guides capex equal to adjusted EBITDA, by our arithmetic. The release does not mention AI, and the framework does not discuss Dutch Bros.
The release does not explain the lower adjusted EBITDA figure or break down the higher capex range. The Form 144s do not name the person behind the two LLCs, and a Form 144 is a notice of a proposed sale, not proof that it took place. Dutch Bros’ 10-Q was not on EDGAR when we checked, so its risk factors are not reviewed here, and we did not use the earnings call. The consensus and the share move are as reported by Wall St Engine.
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Dutch Bros raised its 2026 capex guide by $20 million at the midpoint and lowered its adjusted EBITDA guide to approximately $380 million, so the two now match, against about 93% in August, by our arithmetic. Its 2027 plan calls for approximately 250 shop openings, and two 10% holders filed notices to sell about $45.0 million of stock under a February trading plan.
A note on sourcing. Figures and quotations are from Dutch Bros’ third-quarter 2026 results release, filed with the SEC on 4 November 2026, its second-quarter release of 5 August 2026, and two Form 144 notices filed on 4 November 2026. The consensus estimate and the after-hours share move are as reported by Wall St Engine. Midpoints, ratios and totals are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
