TSMC’s prices for CoWoS, the advanced packaging that joins AI chips to their memory, are being prepared for a new round of increases of up to 20%, Taiwan’s Commercial Times reported on 26 October, citing supply-chain sources. The newspaper said some packaging lead times have already lengthened.
According to the report, foundry and outsourced packaging-and-test (OSAT) companies are preparing a new CoWoS price adjustment that they expect to be 10% to 20%. TSMC has not confirmed any change to its prices.
Business Pill · LEAD TIME
A short explainer on lead time: why the wait is part of the price. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about TSMC or the report in this piece.
The key insight: As we read it, the report describes a seller’s market in packaging: supply-chain sources expect CoWoS prices to rise by up to 20%, and equipment makers say TSMC did not even renegotiate its annual tool purchase this year.
The Commercial Times said demand for advanced packaging has spread from AI GPUs to server CPUs and custom ASICs, and that unfilled orders keep growing. It quoted chipmakers as saying longer test times for AI chips are putting packaging and test capacity under pressure at the same time.
Equipment makers told the newspaper that customers no longer have time to push for lower prices and place orders as long as delivery dates are promised. It said lead times for equipment have stretched from three to six months to six to eight months.
Equipment makers also said that in past years TSMC often asked to negotiate prices in its annual equipment purchase, or to get more features at the same price, but did not renegotiate this year, according to the report.
Measure
As reported by the Commercial Times
CoWoS price quotes
Up to 20%; foundry and OSAT firms expect 10% to 20%
Packaging-equipment lead time
6 to 8 months, from 3 to 6 months
TSMC’s annual equipment price talks
No renegotiation this year
CoWoS monthly capacity, 2026
Over 130,000 wafers (analysts’ estimate)
CoWoS monthly capacity, 2027
200,000 wafers targeted (analysts’ estimate)
New packaging fab, groundbreaking to full load
About three years
Source: Commercial Times (ctee.com.tw), 26 October 2026, our translation from Chinese. Not confirmed by TSMC.
What Taiwan’s Commercial Times reported on 26 October 2026 about TSMC’s CoWoS prices, lead times and capacity, citing supply-chain sources and analysts. Not confirmed by TSMC.
Why Capacity Is Slow to Add
Equipment makers told the newspaper that the speed of expansion is set by process bottlenecks. A new advanced-packaging plant reportedly takes about three years from groundbreaking until its bottleneck stations run at full load, the report said, and actual output depends on the capacity of steps such as lithography, development and die bonding, with the bottleneck shifting as the process changes.
The report said AI chips combine more compute dies and more high-bandwidth memory, and equipment makers had earlier said that larger chips lower each tool’s hourly output, so customers may need more equipment even if chip volumes stay the same.
What TSMC Has Said
The newspaper recalled that TSMC chairman C.C. Wei said at the company’s most recent earnings call that CoWoS remains customers’ first choice, that packaging five times the reticle size is in volume production with excellent yields, and that TSMC is developing nine-times and 14-times versions as well as its CoPoS technology.
Analysts estimate TSMC’s CoWoS monthly capacity will move past 130,000 wafers in 2026 and target 200,000 in 2027, the report said, with sites in Chiayi (AP7), Tainan (AP8) and AP6 for SoIC, and a US advanced-packaging plant, AP1, due to start production in 2028.
Update, 27 Oct: an equipment maker buys deeper into packaging. Applied Materials said on 26 October that it is increasing its investment in BE Semiconductor Industries (Besi), which makes assembly equipment for the semiconductor industry, to approximately 20 percent of Besi’s outstanding shares, in a press release. Applied first invested in Besi in April 2025. Reuters reported that Besi’s shares jumped over 9% on 27 October.
Applied’s Prabu Raja said the company is adding to its investment “as hybrid bonding technology and next-generation interconnect architectures become increasingly critical enablers of energy-efficient AI compute performance.”
The release says Applied entered into an accelerated share purchase agreement, that delivery of the shares is subject to the US Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust waiting period, that Applied has no intention to go beyond approximately 20 percent and that it does not intend to seek board representation. It does not give a price or the size of Applied’s current stake, and it does not mention TSMC.
As we read it, the constraint in the report is time as much as money: equipment lead times of six to eight months and about three years from groundbreaking to a fully loaded packaging plant mean new capacity arrives slowly.
As we read it, the report widens the demand base: it says advanced-packaging demand has spread from AI GPUs to server CPUs and custom ASICs, so more chip designers compete for the same lines.
As we read it, the numbers are reported, not announced: the price range comes from unnamed supply-chain sources, the capacity figures are analysts’ estimates, and TSMC has not confirmed them.
Commercial Times, 26 October 2026, citing equipment makers (our translation)
“customers have no time to cut prices and order as long as delivery is promised”
Three Implications
FOR AI CHIP DESIGNERS The report says foundry and packaging firms expect CoWoS quotes to rise 10% to 20%, and that some packaging lead times have already lengthened.
FOR EQUIPMENT MAKERS The report says TSMC bought at the original price this year with no added features, easing the usual pressure to cut prices or add features.
FOR CAPACITY PLANNING Analysts cited in the report put CoWoS capacity at over 130,000 wafers a month in 2026 and a 200,000 target for 2027, with a US plant due in 2028.
The framework puts it this way: “Allocation power at the foundry is now more consequential than chip design itself.”
As we read it, a reported price rise of up to 20% on CoWoS is that allocation power expressed in price. The framework was published in June 2026 and does not discuss this report.
What Is Not Established
TSMC has not confirmed a price change. The report cites unnamed supply-chain and equipment sources, gives no start date and does not say whether the 10% to 20% applies to all CoWoS customers. The capacity figures are analysts’ estimates, not TSMC’s.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
Execution Fault Lines, Concentrated Demand, and Geopolitical Firewalls
This week’s issue: the AI build is not short of demand for its parts. It is short of cheap money, and its end revenue rests on a narrow base of large, often venture-funded buyers.
Taiwan’s Commercial Times reported on 26 October that TSMC’s CoWoS prices are being prepared for increases of up to 20%, with foundry and packaging firms expecting 10% to 20%, while packaging-equipment lead times have stretched to six to eight months. TSMC has not confirmed the report.
A note on sourcing. This piece is based on the Commercial Times article of 26 October 2026, which we read in Chinese and translated ourselves, and on our own earlier reporting. The report cites unnamed sources. We did not contact TSMC.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
