Rigetti Computing reported third-quarter revenue of $1.4 million ($1,411 thousand), down from $1,947 thousand a year earlier, according to the results it filed with the SEC on 10 November. That is a decline of about 28%, by our arithmetic. The company gave a full-year outlook of approximately $20 million, which leaves about $9.1 million for the fourth quarter, 6.4 times the third quarter, by our arithmetic.
The release says that outlook assumes “C-DAC customer acceptance and associated revenue recognition in the fourth quarter”. Nine-month revenue was $10.9 million, against $5.2 million a year earlier, which the company describes as growth of approximately 110%.
Business Pill · Run-Rate Revenue
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on run-rate and recurring revenue. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Rigetti.
The key insight: Rigetti reported third-quarter revenue of $1,411 thousand, down about 28% from $1,947 thousand a year earlier by our arithmetic, per its 10 November release. Its approximately $20 million full-year outlook leaves about $9.1 million for the fourth quarter, 6.4 times the third quarter by our arithmetic, and the release ties it to C-DAC customer acceptance.
The loss from operations was $33.2 million in the quarter, against $20.5 million a year earlier, per the release. Total operating expenses were $34.0 million, 24.1 times revenue, by our arithmetic. Research and development spending rose to $25.5 million from $15.0 million, up 69.7%, by our arithmetic.
The GAAP net loss was $3.1 million because the quarter included a $25.3 million gain from the change in fair value of derivative warrant liabilities, per the income statement. The non-GAAP net loss was $20.5 million and the GAAP diluted loss per share was $0.08. A Wall St Engine post put the consensus revenue estimate at $3.5 million; that estimate is the poster’s figure.
Rigetti revenue: Q3 2025 $1,947 thousand, Q3 2026 $1,411 thousand, and about $9,051 thousand implied for Q4 2026 by the approximately $20 million full-year outlook. Source: Rigetti Computing Q3 2026 earnings release (SEC 8-K Ex. 99.1). The implied Q4 figure is our arithmetic.
Cash and Runway
Cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments totaled $497.1 million at 30 September, and the company said it “had no debt”. Operating activities used $49.1 million in the first nine months, about $16.4 million a quarter. At that pace the balance would cover about 30 quarters, by our arithmetic. Adding $42.6 million of equipment purchases, cash use was about $30.6 million a quarter, or about 16 quarters of cover.
Using the same operating-cash method, we found earlier today that D-Wave Quantum’s $503.4 million covered about 14 quarters of its burn.
The Commerce Department Stake
In September Rigetti signed an award of up to $100 million with the U.S. Department of Commerce under the CHIPS Act, per the release. The 10-Q says the Department received 7,739,938 shares “at an implied issuance price of $12.92 per Share”, about 2.26% of the 342,704,604 shares outstanding at 30 September, by our arithmetic.
The filing says $43.9 million was made available on the award date and two later tranches of $29.9 million and $26.2 million depend on milestones the Department judges. It adds that failing a milestone “may subject previously disbursed amounts to clawback provisions”.
Seven of the eight risk-factor headings in the 10-Q sit under “Risks Related to the U.S. Department of Commerce Transaction”, about 75% of the section’s words, by our count. They cover phased funding, march-in rights over funded intellectual property and restrictions relating to foreign entities and national security.
The Structural Read
As we read it, the year now rests on one quarter and one customer acceptance, while the cash balance gives the company time. How the Department of Commerce milestones and the fourth-quarter acceptance interact is not established.
Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, Rigetti CEO, Q3 2026 earnings release, 10 Nov 2026
“We also signed a definitive $100 million agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce”
Three Implications
FOR THE OUTLOOK About $9.1 million of fourth-quarter revenue is needed to reach approximately $20 million, by our arithmetic, against $10.9 million in the first nine months.
FOR CASH Cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments were $497.1 million with no debt; at the nine-month operating cash pace that is about 30 quarters, by our arithmetic.
FOR THE COMMERCE STAKE The Department holds 7,739,938 shares, about 2.26% of shares outstanding by our arithmetic, and later tranches of $29.9 million and $26.2 million depend on milestones, per the 10-Q.
What Is Not Established
Whether C-DAC accepts its system in the fourth quarter is not established; the $20 million outlook depends on it, per the release. The runway figures assume the nine-month pace of cash use continues. The consensus estimate comes from a third-party post, not from Rigetti. The earnings call was not reviewed for this piece.
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Rigetti’s third-quarter revenue was $1,411 thousand, down about 28% from a year earlier by our arithmetic, while operating expenses were $34.0 million. Its approximately $20 million full-year outlook leaves about $9.1 million for the fourth quarter, which the release ties to C-DAC customer acceptance. It reported $497.1 million of cash and investments and no debt.
A note on sourcing. Figures and quotations come from Rigetti Computing’s third-quarter 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q, both filed with the SEC on 10 November 2026. The consensus estimate is a third-party figure, attributed in the text. Percentages, ratios, runway and implied figures are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
