Nebius and IREN say they have signed new AI cloud contracts priced at roughly $20 million to $40 million of annual revenue per megawatt. CoreWeave, which reports third-quarter results on Tuesday, November 10, brought in about $6.9 million to $8.2 million of annualised revenue per megawatt of active power in its second quarter, by our arithmetic from its own figures.
The three companies measure a megawatt differently, so the figures are not like-for-like. What they show is the gap between the price of contracts being signed now and the revenue an installed base was producing in the second quarter.
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The key insight: Nebius says its four large second-quarter AI cloud deals priced at $20 million to $25 million a megawatt and IREN says it signed contracts at about $22 million and $40 million per IT-megawatt; by our arithmetic, CoreWeave brought in about $6.9 million to $8.2 million of annualised revenue per megawatt of active power in the second quarter.
Nebius said in its second-quarter shareholder letter, published August 12, that it closed four deals for its AI cloud business “for an average total contract value (TCV) of more than $1 billion each, and a yield of $20-25 million per megawatt”. The letter said its core AI cloud business won deals averaging above $20 million in revenue per megawatt, driven by higher prices for new-generation GPUs and more than 30% higher pricing on older-generation GPUs versus the first quarter. A chart in the letter labels a 2026 base of $12 million in annual contract value per megawatt.
The same letter said: “We see a price opportunity in the $40-50 million per MW range and we signed our first one this week”. It referred to short-term capacity deals, which Nebius described as a new pricing initiative in early third quarter.
IREN said in its first-quarter fiscal 2027 results, filed November 5, that after the quarter ended it signed a “short-term contract for $40 million per IT-MW of revenue” and a five-year contract at “Approximately $22 million per IT-MW”, with the customer prepaying 90% of the associated GPU capex. It also said contracted pricing rose 11% on 3-year deals and 12% on 5-year deals. IREN describes revenue per IT-MW as “estimated annual revenue per MW (IT)” (IREN 8-K). We covered the results in our IREN piece.
Annual revenue per megawatt: CoreWeave about $6.9M-$8.2M realised in Q2 2026 and about $9.4M at its Q3 guidance midpoint on 30 June active power (our arithmetic from its 8-K and call); Nebius a $12M 2026 base, $20M-$25M on four large Q2 deals and a $40M-$50M short-term price opportunity (annual contract value per MW); IREN about $22M on a five-year deal and $40M on a short-term deal (estimated per IT-MW). Definitions differ. Sources: CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN.
— P Equity Research 📰 (@pequityresearch) Nov 07 19:51
A post by @pequityresearch at 19:51 UTC on 7 November sharing a chart it attributes to Bernstein, titled in the post as annualized revenue per MW for the second quarter of 2026, for CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN. This piece does not take its figures from the post: the CoreWeave numbers above are our arithmetic from CoreWeave’s own filings, which we compare with the $8.2 million a Bernstein exhibit listed for CoreWeave in a piece we published on 4 November, and the Nebius and IREN deal prices come from their own documents.
CoreWeave’s Second Quarter, by Our Arithmetic
CoreWeave reported second-quarter revenue of $2,575 million in its August 11 earnings release. On the call, the company said it “ended Q2 with 1.5 gigawatts of active power, adding close to 500 megawatts” in the quarter, and that in June it “brought on more than 300 megawatts of active power”.
By our arithmetic, $2,575 million times four is about $10.3 billion of annualised revenue. Divided by the 1.5 gigawatts active at quarter end, that is about $6.9 million per megawatt. Divided by an average of about 1.25 gigawatts across the quarter (about 1.0 gigawatt at the start, by our arithmetic from the roughly 500 megawatts added), it is about $8.2 million. That matches the $8.2 million for CoreWeave in a Bernstein exhibit we reported on November 4.
The two CoreWeave figures differ because so much power arrived late: more than 300 megawatts came online in June, near the end of the quarter, so that capacity produced little second-quarter revenue.
What Tuesday Can Show
CoreWeave guided third-quarter revenue to “$3.45 billion to $3.6 billion” on the August call and said it expects “to end the year with more than 1.85 gigawatts of active power”. By our arithmetic, the $3.525 billion midpoint times four, divided by the 1.5 gigawatts active on June 30, is about $9.4 million per megawatt. Tuesday’s release and call can show how much of that June power reached revenue.
CoreWeave reports “active power” and does not say in these documents whether it is IT load or total facility power. Nebius quotes annual contract value per megawatt on signed deals. IREN quotes estimated annual revenue per megawatt of IT load. The CoreWeave figure is revenue already booked on an installed base; the Nebius and IREN figures are prices on contracts that start later.
With that caveat, by our arithmetic Nebius’s $20 million floor for its large second-quarter deals is about 2.4 times CoreWeave’s $8.2 million, and the $40 million short-term contracts are about 4.9 times.
The Structural Read
As we read the three documents, the gap is between prices on contracts signed now and revenue on capacity already running; it is not a ranking of the companies, because each measures a megawatt differently.
As we read CoreWeave’s call, the timing matters: more than 300 megawatts came online in June, so second-quarter revenue reflects only part of the 1.5 gigawatts active at quarter end.
As we read the Nebius letter, the step-up comes from pricing: it cites higher prices for new-generation GPUs and more than 30% higher pricing on older-generation GPUs versus the first quarter.
Nebius, Q2 2026 letter to shareholders
“We see a price opportunity in the $40-50 million per MW range and we signed our first one this week”
Three Implications
FOR COREWEAVE ON TUESDAY By our arithmetic, its third-quarter revenue guidance midpoint implies about $9.4 million per megawatt on the 1.5 gigawatts active on June 30.
FOR NEBIUS ON THURSDAY Its letter said deals averaged above $20 million in revenue per megawatt in the second quarter, against a 2026 base of $12 million in annual contract value per megawatt.
FOR IREN It said contracted pricing rose 11% on 3-year deals and 12% on 5-year deals, and that a five-year customer prepaid 90% of the associated GPU capex.
The analysis says: “The job of any operator, investor, or builder is to know which layer they are operating inside and which layer the binding constraint is rotating toward next.”
As we read it, revenue per megawatt is where the power constraint shows up in an AI cloud company’s pricing. The analysis does not discuss CoreWeave, Nebius or IREN.
What Is Not Established
CoreWeave does not give a price per megawatt on new contracts in these documents, and Nebius and IREN do not state active megawatts in them, so this piece does not compute realised revenue per megawatt for Nebius or IREN. A Bernstein chart of annualised revenue per megawatt has circulated on X; we did not use it beyond the CoreWeave figure we reported earlier. This piece makes no forecast of any company’s results.
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Nebius says its four large second-quarter AI cloud deals priced at $20 million to $25 million a megawatt, and IREN says it signed contracts at about $22 million and $40 million per IT-megawatt after its quarter ended. By our arithmetic, CoreWeave brought in about $6.9 million to $8.2 million of annualised revenue per megawatt of active power in the second quarter.
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A note on sourcing. CoreWeave’s revenue and power figures are from its second-quarter 8-K and earnings call; Nebius’s from its second-quarter letter to shareholders; IREN’s from its first-quarter fiscal 2027 8-K. The per-megawatt figures for CoreWeave, the averages and the ratios are our arithmetic. The companies define a megawatt differently.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
