Moderna reported net income of $162 million for the third quarter of 2026, against a net loss of $200 million a year earlier, a $362 million improvement, according to its third-quarter results release, filed with the SEC on 6 November. Research and development spending fell 27%, to $583 million from $801 million. That $218 million reduction was larger than the $186 million rise in gross profit, total revenue less cost of sales, which went to $995 million from $809 million (our arithmetic).
Total revenue rose 29% to $1.313 billion, from $1.016 billion, which Moderna attributes primarily to higher COVID vaccine sales in international markets, supported by deliveries under long-term government partnerships. Revenue was $780 million in the U.S. and $533 million internationally. Diluted earnings per share were $0.38, against a loss of $0.51.
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The key insight: Moderna swung to a $162 million third-quarter profit from a $200 million loss; the $218 million fall in R&D was larger than the $186 million rise in gross profit, by our arithmetic.
R&D: down $218 million. The release attributes the 27% fall “primarily” to “lower clinical development costs following the completion and wind-down of certain late-stage studies in the Company’s infectious disease portfolio, as well as continued cost efficiencies across the organization.”
Gross profit: up $186 million (our arithmetic). Revenue rose $297 million while cost of sales rose 54%, to $318 million from $207 million, including $65 million of third-party royalties.
SG&A: up $14 million, to $282 million from $268 million.
Below the operating line: interest income fell to $62 million from $73 million, other expense was $21 million against none, and the tax provision was $9 million against $13 million.
Moderna’s research and development spending, gross profit, SG&A and net income in the third quarter of 2025 and 2026. R&D fell $218 million; gross profit (total revenue less cost of sales) rose $186 million. Source: Moderna third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1), 6 November 2026. Gross profit and the changes are our arithmetic.
The Raised Outlook
Revenue growth for 2026 of 15% to 25%, up from “up to 10%”.
R&D of about $2.7 billion for 2026, down from about $2.9 billion; SG&A unchanged at about $1.0 billion; cost of sales about $1.7 billion, including the previously announced $0.9 billion non-recurring litigation settlement charge.
Capital expenditures of about $0.2 billion, from $0.2 billion to $0.3 billion.
Year-end cash and investments of $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion, up from $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. The release says the increase “reflects improved operational execution and proceeds from the Company’s convertible notes financing.” The September convertible notes raised about $2.6 billion net, on about $3.0 billion of principal. At the midpoints the outlook rose about $3.25 billion, so the net proceeds equal roughly 80% of the increase (our arithmetic; the release does not split the increase).
Cash and Receivables
Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $8.0 billion at 30 September, against $6.9 billion at 30 June. The release says the increase primarily reflected the $2.6 billion of convertible proceeds, partly offset by the $950 million litigation settlement payment and cash used in operations, including the seasonal working-capital impact of third-quarter sales, “the majority of which remained uncollected at quarter-end.” Accounts receivable stood at $1,367 million, against $184 million at 31 December 2025.
Pipeline Items in the Release
mFLUSIVA. FDA approval in August for adults aged 50 to 64 and accelerated approval for those 65 and older; Moderna calls it its fifth approved product globally and is conducting a limited U.S. launch for the 2026–2027 season.
Intismeran autogene. With KEYTRUDA, it reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% (HR=0.58) and of distant metastasis or death by 38% (HR=0.62) against KEYTRUDA alone in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma study, Moderna and Merck reported.
Norovirus (mRNA-1403). The Phase 3 interim analysis did not meet the statistical criteria for early success, and Moderna does not plan an additional cohort this season.
Moderna holds an analyst day on 12 November.
The Wall St Engine card that flagged the results put the analyst consensus at $885 million of revenue and a loss of $1.25 a share; those estimates are the card’s, not Moderna’s.
As we read the release, the quarter is a coststory as much as a sales story: the largest change in any cost line is research spending, and the release ties that to studies ending.
As we read the outlook, most of the higher year-end cash figure is matched by the convertible notes; the release itself credits both operations and the financing.
Stéphane Bancel, CEO, Moderna results release, 6 November 2026
“Building on this momentum, we increased our full-year revenuegrowth outlook to 15%-25%, while continuing to reduce costs and strengthen our balance sheet.”
Three Implications
FOR INVESTORS The swing to profit leans on lower R&D; the 2026 R&D outlook was reduced to about $2.7 billion, from about $2.9 billion.
FOR THE PIPELINE Moderna says the convertible proceeds support investment in oncology, where intismeran reported positive Phase 3 data.
FOR THE BALANCE SHEET Most of the higher cash outlook is matched by $2.6 billion of net convertible proceeds, by our arithmetic.
What Is Not Established
The release does not say how much of the R&D reduction comes from studies ending versus wider cost cuts, or whether the lower level continues once new late-stage studies start. It does not split the higher cash outlook between operations and the convertible notes; the 80% is our arithmetic at the midpoints. Third-quarter revenue is seasonal for Moderna, and much of it was still a receivable at quarter-end, according to the release.
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Moderna’s swing to a third-quarter profit came as much from spending less on research as from selling more: R&D fell $218 million while gross profit rose $186 million.
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A note on sourcing. Figures and quotations are from Moderna’s third-quarter 2026 results release, filed as Exhibit 99.1 to its Form 8-K on 6 November 2026. Consensus estimates are as cited by Wall St Engine on X. Gross profit, the line-by-line changes and the 80% share are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
