AP has called four of the five governor races in the “Matter most” bucket of a BofA table on utility stocks that ZeroHedge posted on X, under the line “5 Governor races are critical for the data center/AI trade”. In Texas it called the race for Gina Hinojosa (Dem) at 04:17Z on 4 November. The Oregon governor race is uncalled as of 05:08Z on 4 November, according to AP.
SemiAnalysis estimated on 1 November that 30.3 GW of planned 2028 data center capacity would be at risk of a moratorium if the candidate proposing a pause won in every state where one was running, and put 16.7 GW of that in Texas. By our arithmetic, Texas is about 55% of that estimate.
In March, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and xAI signed the White House’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge to pay for the power and grid upgrades their data centers need. Hinojosa’s plan asks data center companies to prove households won’t pay more for electricity or water.
The key insight: By our arithmetic on SemiAnalysis’s 1 November estimates, Texas holds about 55% of the 30.3 GW of planned 2028 data center capacity it put at risk if every pause candidate won; AP had called the Texas race for Hinojosa at 04:17Z, and four of the five races in the BofA table ZeroHedge posted by 05:08Z.
What happened next (4 Nov, 07:05Z): By our count of Ballotpedia’s table read at 06:49Z, unofficial early returns lean toward limits on data centers in 30 of the 35 local ballot measures with vote counts posted; the five exceptions are all in Ohio. Our follow-up has the count.
The table, titled “BofA’s Midterm Map: Where The Governor’s Race Actually Moves Utility Stocks”, cites a 5 October BofA Global Research report; its top bucket, “Matter most”, lists Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Oregon. ZeroHedge wrote that, according to the report, pause and moratorium proposals appear in 20 of the 36 governor races on the ballot.
AP has called the Texas governor race for Gina Hinojosa (Dem), at 04:17Z on 4 November. AP has called the Georgia governor race for Keisha Bottoms (Dem), at 02:24Z on 4 November. AP has called the Ohio governor race for Amy Acton (Dem), at 03:49Z on 4 November. AP has called the Pennsylvania governor race for Josh Shapiro (Dem), at 01:01Z on 4 November. The Oregon governor race is uncalled as of 05:08Z on 4 November, according to AP.
AP’s results page says: “AP’s Decision Team declares winners when certain the trailing candidates no longer have a path to victory.” Vote counts are unofficial.
What Was Posted on X
5 Governor races are critical for the data center/AI trade
ZeroHedge posted a table from a 5 October BofA Global Research report on governor races and utility stocks. Its “Matter most” bucket lists Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Oregon, the five races this piece tracks.
Why Texas really matters. It’s set to overtake Virginia as the dominant states for data center. And much of the projects still in early stage (which means, they can be stopped).
Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg, posted a BloombergNEF chart of data center pipelines by state and stage, crediting BNEF’s Derrick Flakoll. This piece reads the Texas, Georgia and Virginia bars from it as approximate figures.
Hinojosa is leading the Governor race so far. As stated by SemiAnalysis, 16.7GW of planned 2028 capacity is at risk.
Texas is the head the snake for the datacenter buildout.
— P Equity Research 📰 (@pequityresearch) Nov 04 03:04
The account @pequityresearch quoted SemiAnalysis’s map of 30.3 GW of planned 2028 capacity at risk if every pause candidate won, 16.7 GW of it in Texas. This piece takes those figures from SemiAnalysis’s own post and reports race status from AP calls only.
Gina Hinojosa may not be as bad for Texas data centers as it looks.
Her plan asks for: no subsidies, union labor, no NDAs, and proof household power and water bills won’t rise.
Much of that is already underway:
Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle and xAI pledged in March to bring their own power and pay for transmission
Microsoft pledged to pay full property taxes without seeking tax breaks
Nvidia is working with Vistra, NextEra and Constellation on data centers that cut power use when the grid is strained
Wall St Engine posted after AP’s Texas call, with a screenshot of Hinojosa’s data center priorities, and argued that much of her plan is already under way, citing the March White House pledge. That is Wall St Engine’s view; this piece quotes the plan from her campaign’s release.
Democrat Gina Hinojosa wants a broader data center moratorium if she defeats Texas Gov. Abbott
Jefferies says 13.3GW of Texas projects could be at risk
The state accounts for ~25% of planned U.S. capacity by 2030
ERCOT’s 474GW request queue was ~90% data centers in mid-2026
Wall St Engine posted at 01:59Z on 4 November that Gina Hinojosa wants a broader data center moratorium if she defeats Gov. Abbott. It wrote that Jefferies says 13.3GW of Texas projects could be at risk, and added that Texas accounts for about 25% of planned U.S. capacity by 2030 and that ERCOT’s 474GW request queue was about 90% data centers in mid-2026.
Planned 2028 data center capacity SemiAnalysis estimates would be at risk if every pause candidate won, by state, from its 1 November 2026 map (estimates, not independently verified). Race status: AP, as of 05:08Z on 4 November 2026. Shares and the PA/IA/OK remainder are our arithmetic. Chart: FourWeekMBA.
What the Candidates Said About Data Centers
Texas. Hinojosa’s campaign called in July for a moratorium on data centers until a legislative session, and listed six priorities, quoted in the next section. Gov. Greg Abbott directed state environmental regulators on 21 September to halt all permits sought by data centers until the grid operator’s audit is complete. “Data centers must pay their own way, protect our grid and water, and complete the ERCOT and TWDB audits,” Abbott said, and his office said he will work with the Legislature to eliminate any financial incentives for data centers.
Georgia. Keisha Lance Bottoms said she would support a temporary pause on data center construction. “I just want us to pause,” she told reporters, according to The Current GA. Rick Jackson rejected an outright freeze, WRDW reported: “No new data center should be approved unless the local community supports it. It provides real local benefits, does not increase local utility costs, and it meets strict environmental standards,” he said.
Ohio. Amy Acton said she would “take immediate action and support a conditional moratorium on data centers” to ensure they cover 100% of their utility costs and are built with union labor, the Tribune Chronicle reported. Vivek Ramaswamy set three conditions, including free electricity for families living near data centers and full property taxes, the Tribune Chronicle reported, and said: “If any one of these three conditions is not met, the data center won’t be built.”
The paper reported that he said he would issue an executive order on his first day to halt approvals of new projects until those conditions are met.
Pennsylvania. Josh Shapiro signed an executive order in August requiring data center developers to follow his GRID standards to be issued permits on a rolling basis, Spotlight PA reported. Stacy Garrity “says she favors mandatory rules not tied to climate and a pause on data center development”, according to Spotlight PA.
Oregon. Tina Kotek said in September she supports a statewide moratorium: “I support a moratorium until we make sure that any data center development is done on our terms,” she said, according to KLCC. Christine Drazan has said she supports local communities declining to host data centers but opposes an “arbitrary moratorium”, the Oregon Capital Chronicle reported in August.
Texas: Both Nominees’ Terms, in Their Own Words
Her campaign’s 23 July release lists “Texans First Data Center Priorities”: “Requiring American union jobs so operators hire skilled, licensed, union labor”; “Giving Texans a seat at the table to decide if and how data centers come to their communities”; “Creating full transparency by stopping data center companies from using NDAs”.
It continues: “Lowering costs for Texans by ensuring data center companies prove households won’t pay more for electricity or water, including the hidden costs passed through for grid upgrades, transmission, and new capacity”; “Make data centers pay for themselves by stopping subsidies”; and “Putting water and power for Texans first by ensuring any water contract with data centers becomes unenforceable if it threatens a community’s water supply”.
Abbott’s office set its own conditions in the 21 September directive: “Data center projects must cover all electrical infrastructure costs, result in lower residential electrical bills, and complete the ERCOT audit.” It added that data centers “must not use water needed by local communities, must report electricity and water usage, and must abide by setback requirements”.
Wall St Engine wrote on X after the call that Hinojosa “may not be as bad for Texas data centers as it looks”, arguing that “Much of that is already underway”, and pointed to the March pledge. That is Wall St Engine’s view.
What the March Pledge Says
The White House’s 4 March fact sheet says the seven companies agreed “to build, bring, or buy new generation resources and cover the cost of all power delivery infrastructure upgrades required for their data centers, ensuring such expenses are not passed to American households”. It says they will pay negotiated rates “whether they use the electricity or not”.
A governors’ version of the pledge, published by the White House in July, carries 23 signatures. They include Abbott, Brian Kemp of Georgia and Mike DeWine of Ohio, the incumbents AP lists in three of the five states; AP lists Shapiro and Kotek as the incumbents in Pennsylvania and Oregon, and neither name is on the signed list.
Update, 4 Nov, 06:1xZ: a second at-risk estimate, and the size of the Texas queue. Wall St Engine posted on X at 01:59Z that Jefferies says 13.3 GW of Texas projects could be at risk; its chart labels this “Announced Texas projects at risk” and credits “Jefferies; ERCOT”, while the chart’s footer cites “Jefferies via WSJ”. We have not seen the Jefferies note, so the figure is Jefferies’s as relayed. It measures something different from SemiAnalysis’s 16.7 GW above, which is planned 2028 capacity, so we do not compare the two.
The queue figure in the post matches the state’s own number. Gov. Greg Abbott’s 3 August letter to the PUC and ERCOT says ERCOT “is currently considering approximately 474 gigawatts of requests to connect to the Texas grid”, “more than five times Texas’ record peak electricity demand”, and that “Approximately 90 percent of the new power requests are data centers.”
On the moratorium, Hinojosa’s 23 July campaign release quotes her: “I’m calling for a moratorium until a legislative session that puts Texans first.” AP called the Texas governor race for Hinojosa (Dem) at 04:17Z; the call stood when we rechecked AP’s results feed at 06:00Z.
Texas Has the Largest Pipeline
Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg, posted a BloombergNEF chart on X with the comment that Texas is “set to overtake Virginia as the dominant states for data center”, crediting BNEF’s Derrick Flakoll. Read from that chart, Texas’s pipeline is a little above 60 GW of IT capacity, against roughly 40 GW each for Georgia and Virginia; the largest single segment of the Texas bar is early-stage projects from inexperienced developers. The chart-read figures are approximate.
What SemiAnalysis Estimated
SemiAnalysis’s map of its “Moratorium Sweep Scenario” shows Texas at 16.7 GW, Ohio 4.8 GW, Georgia 3.2 GW and Oregon 0.9 GW of planned 2028 capacity; the values for Pennsylvania, Iowa and Oklahoma are behind its paywall. By our arithmetic, the four shown values add up to 25.6 GW, leaving 4.7 GW for the hidden states.
Its second map, with pause candidates losing every contested race, keeps 5.7 GW at risk “in states where both candidates back a pause”: Ohio and Oregon. It classes Texas and Georgia as races between a pause candidate and a conditions candidate. By our arithmetic, Texas, Georgia and Ohio hold 24.7 GW of the 30.3 GW, about 82%, and AP has called all three.
SemiAnalysis cautioned: “How much actually slips depends on the permits each project still needs and how long the pause lasts.” It also wrote: “Here we take candidates’ positions at face value.”
Business Pill · Grid Cost Allocation
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on grid cost allocation: who pays for the infrastructure new data centers need. It explains the general idea only and does not discuss any candidate or race.
What JPMorgan’s Aziz Said
Jahangir Aziz, co-head of macroeconomic research at JPMorgan, told CNBC-TV18 in an interview published at 05:00Z on 4 November that a nationwide data center moratorium, “even if the Democrats get both the Senate and the House and they push for it, most likely is going to be vetoed by the president”. “So, I’m not saying that there’s going to be a nationwide moratorium,” he said.
On the states, he said limited one-year or two-year moratoriums have been put in place in many states: “Now, that could well spread to other states if you get the governorship going to the Democrats, not the Senate by itself. I think the governor matters rather than who gets the Senate from that state.” That is his view.
How We Counted
Race status comes from AP’s results data, read at 05:08Z on 4 November. Capacity figures are SemiAnalysis’s estimates from its Datacenter Industry Model, read from the free part of its 1 November post; the shares and sums are our arithmetic. Candidate positions are quoted from their campaigns, the Texas governor’s office release and local outlets, with a stated position for each major-party nominee.
The Structural Read
As we read the candidates’ statements, both Texas nominees asked data centers to cover grid costs and protect household bills; they differed on whether approvals wait for the Legislature, as Hinojosa’s campaign called for, or for the grid and water audits Abbott’s directive set.
As we read SemiAnalysis’s two maps, Ohio and Oregon stay in its at-risk total in both scenarios because it lists both nominees there as backing a pause.
SemiAnalysis, 1 November 2026
“How much actually slips depends on the permits each project still needs and how long the pause lasts.”
Three Implications
FOR DEVELOPERS SemiAnalysis wrote that a project “cannot carry out work if it still requires an approval which the state has ceased to issue”.
FOR THE MARCH PLEDGE SIGNERS The White House fact sheet says the seven companies will negotiate separate rate structures and pay them “whether they use the electricity or not”.
FOR READERS TRACKING OREGON The Oregon governor race is uncalled as of 05:08Z on 4 November, according to AP; results in this piece are AP calls only.
The framework says: “Companies that solve the power equation will dominate the AI era; those that don’t will watch their chips sit idle.”
As we read it, state permits and grid-cost rules are part of that power equation. The framework predates this election and does not discuss any candidate or state.
Go deeper: how data center politics works across local ballots, candidates’ terms and federal pledges, starting with what the 41 local ballot measures asked voters to do. How Data Center Politics Works, in 41 Local Ballot Votes.
What Is Not Established
Campaign positions are not policy. SemiAnalysis wrote that more extensive restrictions or tax changes generally have to go through legislation, and its capacity figures are model estimates we have not verified. We read BofA’s ranking only from the table ZeroHedge posted, not from the report itself.
The Oregon governor race is uncalled as of 05:08Z on 4 November, according to AP. Calls made after 05:08Z are not reflected here.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
Anthropic’s Reality Check, The Capital Squeeze, & The New World Order
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a growthstory. This week it started being priced as a credit story.
By 05:08Z, AP had called four of the five governor races in the “Matter most” bucket of the BofA utility-stocks table ZeroHedge posted, including Texas for Hinojosa. SemiAnalysis put 16.7 GW of its 30.3 GW pause-scenario estimate in Texas, about 55% by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. Race results are AP race calls only, read from AP’s results data at the time stated; races AP had not called are described as uncalled. Capacity figures are SemiAnalysis’s estimates; the BloombergNEF pipeline figures are read from a chart posted on X and are approximate. Candidate positions are quoted from campaigns, the Texas governor’s office and the named outlets. Shares and sums are our arithmetic. We did not contact the candidates.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
