Two crypto perpetual contracts that each reference one share of Anthropic traded at $116.95 and $116.43 at 04:47 UTC on 5 November, Hyperliquid’s public market data shows. Bitget’s campaign page for its own Anthropic IPO subscription gives an estimated issue price of $103. By our arithmetic, the two contracts trade about 13% to 13.5% above Bitget’s estimate.
None of these is an Anthropic share, and none comes from Anthropic. Across three live Anthropic contracts on Hyperliquid, about $190 million of open interest sat at the mark price, by our arithmetic. On Polymarket, traders put 63% on an IPO price that values the company at $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion.
Business Pill · Power Law
A short Business Engineer explainer on power-law outcomes in markets. It teaches the general idea only and says nothing about Anthropic, these venues or their contracts.
The key insight: Two Hyperliquid perpetuals that each reference one Anthropic share traded about 13% to 13.5% above the $103 estimated issue price on Bitget’s campaign page, by our arithmetic, at 04:47 UTC on 5 November. Bitget’s own $1.75 trillion figure sits on a Polymarket bracket boundary that the venue’s rules settle upward.
We found four Anthropic contracts in Hyperliquid’s pre-IPO category, each run by a different deployer. XYZ’s xyz:ANT, listed by trade.xyz, says: “ANT references 1 share of Anthropic, PBC Class A common stock (expected Nasdaq: ANT), quoted in USD.” Paragon’s para:ANTH says: “ANTH tracks the value of one share of Anthropic.”
Ventuals’ contract uses a different unit: “ANTHROPIC tracks the total valuation of Anthropic, in billions.” It is now marked as delisted, with zero open interest. EntropyIO’s io:ANTH, the largest by open interest at the mark price, has an empty description in Hyperliquid’s data, so we do not turn its price of 1,859.0 into a valuation.
Bitget’s product is a subscription, not a perpetual. Its VIP round opens on 5 November and its public round on 10 November, the page’s timeline shows. The page lists an expected market valuation of $1.75 trillion and an estimated listing date of 18 November. It adds: “Market expectations do not represent the official IPO valuation.”
Polymarket’s contracts are yes-or-no bets on an outcome. Its page says: “Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.”
Open interest at the mark price on the four Anthropic pre-IPO contracts in Hyperliquid’s public data at 04:47 UTC on 5 November 2026: EntropyIO’s io:ANTH, trade.xyz’s xyz:ANT, Paragon’s para:ANTH and Ventuals’ delisted vntl:ANTHROPIC. Notional amounts are our arithmetic (contracts times mark price). Perpetual contracts, not shares, and not issued by Anthropic.
What the Contracts Are Not
Bitget’s page states: “This product is NOT issued, offered, or managed by Anthropic.” It says delivery is in Anthropic rTokens and that “Every rANT you are allocated is backed by real Anthropic stock.” Its risk section adds that holders of tokenized assets “should not automatically be deemed as enjoying shareholder status, voting rights, or other shareholder rights”.
For the Hyperliquid perpetuals, Markets Media reported in our 1 November piece that such contracts are not shares, IPO allocations, tokenized equity or claims on the issuer. Holders get no ownership, dividends, voting rights or allocation rights, the report said.
How Each One Settles
XYZ’s description says that “upon listing the market is intended to convert to a standard perpetual”. Paragon’s and EntropyIO’s descriptions in Hyperliquid’s data do not say what happens at listing.
Polymarket’s valuation market resolves on the implied fully diluted valuation at the final IPO price in the final prospectus. Trading after listing does not count. The rules add: “If the determined valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.”
Bitget says settlement is at the official issue price, with allocations in proportion to the amount invested. It states: “Bitget does not guarantee full allocation or a fixed allocation rate.” VIP allocations are expected three to five working days after the IPO, the page says.
The Prices Side by Side
The per-share contracts and Bitget’s estimate share a unit, so they can be compared. xyz:ANT at $116.95 is about 13.5% above $103, and para:ANTH at $116.43 about 13.0%, by our arithmetic. Bitget’s own two figures, $1.75 trillion and $103, imply about 16.99 billion shares, also our arithmetic; the page gives no share count.
That $1.75 trillion sits exactly on a Polymarket boundary. Under the boundary rule, an IPO valuation of exactly $1.75 trillion would settle in the $1.75 trillion to $2.00 trillion bracket, priced at 18%, not the $1.50 trillion to $1.75 trillion bracket at 63%. The rest of the board read 10% for $1.25 trillion to $1.50 trillion and 5% for $2.00 trillion to $2.25 trillion.
Ventuals’ last mark of 1,619.3 equals about $1.62 trillion on its own definition, inside Polymarket’s leading bracket. The venues also differ on timing. Bitget’s timeline is built on an 18 November listing; Polymarket’s contract for an IPO by 18 November showed 19%, against 56% by 20 November.
Where the Money Sits
At the mark, io:ANTH carried about $129.0 million of open interest, xyz:ANT about $60.8 million and para:ANTH about $0.07 million, by our arithmetic. That is about $190 million across the three live contracts, about 68% of it on io:ANTH.
xyz:ANT’s open interest was 519,890 contracts, up about 49% from 349,793 on 1 November, by our arithmetic. io:ANTH stood at about 81% of its $160 million open-interest cap, and xyz:ANT at about 61% of its $100 million cap.
The cost of holding a position differs too. io:ANTH showed an hourly funding rate of 0.0074%, about 65% on an annual basis by our arithmetic, paid by longs to shorts. xyz:ANT’s rate was about 0.4% on the same basis. Over 24 hours, io:ANTH traded about $68.1 million and xyz:ANT about $30.2 million.
On Polymarket’s separate market for the largest IPO of 2026, Anthropic stood at 27.4% at 04:43 UTC, against 27.9% when we read it at 23:52 UTC on 4 November. SpaceX led at 72%.
The Business Lever
The business lever is customer acquisition for the venues. Bitget ties its 100,000 USDT reward pool to new users: a first deposit of at least 1,000 USDT earns 20 USDT of Anthropic rTokens, and at least 30,000 USDT earns 100 USDT plus a VIP upgrade. The funds must stay until 30 days after the IPO.
As we read the venues’ pages, each instrument settles on a different event: a mark price that runs until listing, a final prospectus valuation, a listing date, or an allocation at the official issue price.
As we read the Hyperliquid data, the per-share contracts and Bitget’s estimate are the only figures here that share a unit; the valuation contracts and Polymarket’s brackets are quoted in a different one.
As we read Bitget’s terms, its new-user rewards depend on deposits staying until 30 days after the IPO, so the campaign is tied to the listing date as well as the price.
Bitget, Anthropic IPO campaign page
“Submitting a subscription does not guarantee an allocation or a full allocation.”
Three Implications
FOR PERPETUAL TRADERS Hyperliquid’s data showed io:ANTH at about 81% of its $160 million open-interest cap and an hourly funding rate of 0.0074%, about 65% on an annual basis by our arithmetic.
FOR BITGET SUBSCRIBERS Bitget says the final issue price is set by the issuer and underwriters and may be higher or lower than its $103 estimate.
FOR POLYMARKET TRADERS The valuation market resolves on the final prospectus; trading prices after listing will not be considered, its rules say.
The analysis says: “Conflating these clocks produces the most common analytical errors of the moment.”
As we read it, the instruments in this piece all run on the short clock: an offer price, a listing date and a first-day close. The analysis does not discuss these markets.
What Is Not Established
Hyperliquid’s data gives no description for io:ANTH, so its price is not converted here. Bitget’s $103 and $1.75 trillion are its own estimates, and its page says the final price is set by the issuer and underwriters. Anthropic’s amended S-1 of 2 November gives no price range.
All prices are as read at 04:43 to 04:47 UTC on 5 November and move continuously. Polymarket probabilities are market prices, not forecasts. The 13% to 13.5%, the 16.99 billion shares, the $190 million and the annualised funding rates are our arithmetic. None of this is investment advice.
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Two Hyperliquid perpetuals that each reference one Anthropic share trade about 13% to 13.5% above Bitget’s $103 estimated issue price, by our arithmetic, with about $190 million of open interest across three live contracts. Bitget’s $1.75 trillion would land in Polymarket’s 18% bracket under the venue’s boundary rule.
A note on sourcing. Contract descriptions, prices, open interest, funding and caps are from Hyperliquid’s public info API as read at 04:47 UTC on 5 November 2026. Bitget’s terms and estimates are from its Anthropic IPO campaign page, and Polymarket’s prices and rules from its market pages as read at 04:43 UTC. None of these products is issued by Anthropic. The percentage gaps, implied share count, open-interest notionals and annualised funding rates are our arithmetic. This is not investment advice.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
