Zero-sum thinking is the belief that one person’s or group’s gain must come at someone else’s expense, as if the total to share were fixed. The name comes from game theory, where in a zero-sum game the winners’ gains exactly equal the losers’ losses. Psychologists study it as a general belief about social life (Różycka-Tran, Boski and Wojciszke, 2015) and as a zero-sum bias: judging a situation to be zero-sum when it is not (Meegan, 2010).
A promotion, a budget, a market or a job looks like a fixed amount that someone else could take.
02
Assume opposed interests
Negotiation research found that people often assume the other side wants the opposite of what they want, the “fixed-pie” perception (Thompson and Hastie, 1990).
Options that would leave both sides better off go unexplored, which can make the pie smaller in practice.
Where you see it today
The “AI will take a fixed number of jobs” debate
Fear about AI often treats work as a fixed stock that machines will use up. Research on eight decades of US job titles found that the majority of current employment is in job specialties introduced since 1940, and that new work tends to emerge where innovations complement what an occupation produces (Autor et al., 2024). Displacement is real for some tasks; the fixed total is the assumption to test.
Politics and policy views
A survey of 20,400 US residents (Chinoy et al., 2023, revised April 2025) found that a more zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race- and gender-based affirmative action and more restrictive immigration policies. Earlier work found that both liberals and conservatives view life as zero-sum on the issues that fit their ideology (Davidai and Ongis, 2019).
Grades, rankings and reviews
In experiments where high grades were unlimited because grading was against a fixed standard, students still predicted lower grades for the next presenter once many high grades had been given (Meegan, 2010). Forced-ranking reviews and leaderboards can plant the same belief in teams where it is not true.
Negotiating with AI help
People in negotiations tend to assume a fixed pie (Thompson and Hastie, 1990). An AI assistant can be asked to list each side’s likely priorities and possible trades before a deal; that turns the conversation from splitting a pie to finding where both sides value things differently.
Zero-sum thinking and related ideas
Zero-sum game
What it saysA real situation where one side's gain equals the other's loss
Ask whether the resource is really fixed: is there a hard cap, or is it set by a standard, by demand or by what you build?
Before a negotiation, list the issues that matter to each side and look for ones you value differently.
Check the incentives: if a ranking or bonus pool makes colleagues rivals, decide whether that competition is the one you want.
When you hear that AI will take a fixed number of jobs, ask which tasks, which new work, and over what period.
Keep the zero-sum frame where it fits, such as a single contract won by one bidder, and drop it where it does not.
The Business Engineer lens
AI markets mix true zero-sum contests, such as a scarce supply of chips at a point in time, with large positive-sum gains from new products and new work. The Business Engineer separates the two, so strategy fights only where the pie is fixed and builds where it can grow.
It is the belief that one party's gain must mean another party's loss, as if the total to share were fixed, even in situations where value can be created.
No. Some situations are zero-sum, such as one bidder winning a single contract. The bias is applying that frame to situations where trade, innovation or cooperation can grow the total.
What is the fixed-pie bias?
In negotiation research it is the assumption that the other side's interests directly oppose yours, which leads people to miss trades that would help both sides.
Does AI make work a zero-sum game?
Not necessarily. Research on US job titles found that most current employment is in job specialties created since 1940, and new work tends to appear where technology complements an occupation. Some tasks are displaced; the total is not fixed.
The complete explainer, cleaned up and reformatted for mobile.
Zero-sum thinking, also known as zero-sum bias or zero-sum mentality, is a cognitive perspective that views interactions, transactions, or situations as inherently competitive, with limited resources or opportunities to be divided between participants. In essence, it implies that any gain by one party must be offset by an equivalent loss by another party, resulting in a net-zero outcome.
Key principles and components of zero-sum thinking include:
Fixed Pie Fallacy: Zero-sum thinking often falls prey to the fixed pie fallacy, which assumes that the available resources or value in a situation remain constant and unalterable. In reality, resources and value can be expanded, shared, or created through cooperation and innovation.
Win-Lose Orientation: Individuals exhibiting zero-sum thinking tend to approach interactions with a win-lose orientation, viewing others as adversaries rather than collaborators. They prioritize their own gain at the expense of others.
Competition Over Cooperation: Zero-sum thinking can lead to a preference for competition over cooperation, even when cooperative strategies could yield superior results for all parties involved.
Limited Perspective: Zero-sum thinkers often have a limited perspective that focuses on short-term, immediate gains rather than long-term, sustainable solutions. This can hinder innovation and problem-solving.
Zero-Sum Games: Zero-sum thinking is most prominently associated with zero-sum games in game theory, where the total gains and losses among participants sum to zero. Classic examples include poker and chess, where one player’s gain corresponds directly to another player’s loss.
FourWeekMBABusiness EngineerAt a glance
Zero-sum thinking, also known as zero-sum bias or zero-sum mentality, is a cognitive perspective that views interactions, transactions, or situations as inherently competitive, with limited resources or opportunities to be divided between participants.
Competition Over Cooperation: Zero-sum thinking can lead to a preference for competition over cooperation, even when cooperative strategies could yield superior results for all parties involved.
Foster a growth mindset that recognizes opportunities for value creation and win-win outcomes.
In some situations, zero-sum dynamics may accurately reflect the constraints and limitations of a specific scenario.
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Why it mattersFrom the article
Zero-sum thinking represents a cognitive bias that can hinder cooperation, innovation, and the pursuit of mutually beneficial outcomes.
In the business world, zero-sum thinking can stifle innovation as companies focus on outperforming competitors rather than creating new value.
Zero-sum thinking can contribute to political polarization, where individuals see political opponents as enemies to be defeated rather than fellow citizens with different perspectives.
Real-World Implications of Zero-Sum Thinking
Zero-sum thinking has far-reaching consequences in various aspects of life, including economics, politics, relationships, and international affairs:
1. Economic Policy:
In economic policy debates, zero-sum thinking can manifest in arguments over resource allocation, tax policies, and trade. It can hinder discussions about how economic growth and prosperity can benefit everyone.
2. Negotiations and Conflict Resolution:
In negotiations, individuals with a zero-sum mindset may adopt rigid positions that make it difficult to find common ground. This can escalate conflicts and impede peaceful resolutions.
3. International Relations:
Zero-sum thinking can impact diplomatic relations between countries. It may lead to competition for finite resources, territorial disputes, and trade conflicts.
4. Interpersonal Relationships:
In personal relationships, zero-sum thinking can undermine trust and cooperation. It can lead to a “tit-for-tat” mentality, where individuals keep score and seek retaliation for perceived slights.
5. Innovation and Competition:
In the business world, zero-sum thinking can stifle innovation as companies focus on outperforming competitors rather than creating new value. Collaborative opportunities may be missed.
6. Social and Political Polarization:
Zero-sum thinking can contribute to political polarization, where individuals see political opponents as enemies to be defeated rather than fellow citizens with different perspectives.
Strategies to Overcome Zero-Sum Thinking
Overcoming zero-sum thinking is essential for fostering cooperation, innovation, and positive outcomes. Here are strategies to counter its limitations:
1. Mindset Shift:
Foster a growth mindset that recognizes opportunities for value creation and win-win outcomes. Embrace the idea that resources can be expanded through innovation and collaboration.
2. Information Gathering:
Seek comprehensive information and data to gain a more nuanced understanding of situations. Avoid jumping to conclusions based on limited or biased information.
3. Empathy and Perspective-Taking:
Practice empathy by considering the perspectives and interests of others. Try to understand their motivations and goals, which can lead to more cooperative interactions.
4. Collaborative Problem-Solving:
Approach problems with a collaborative mindset. Involve stakeholders, encourage open dialogue, and explore solutions that benefit all parties involved.
5. Long-Term Thinking:
Focus on long-term goals and sustainable solutions rather than short-term wins. Recognize that some sacrifices in the short term may lead to greater benefits in the future.
6. Negotiation and Conflict Resolution Skills:
Develop negotiation and conflict resolution skills that emphasize win-win outcomes. Look for areas of common interest and explore compromises.
7. Communication and Trust-Building:
Build trust through effective communication and relationship-building. Trust can reduce the perception of zero-sum dynamics in interactions.
8. Economic and Resource Analysis:
In economic and resource allocation decisions, consider the potential for value creation and resource expansion. Avoid rigid allocation models based on zero-sum assumptions.
Criticisms and Limitations
While overcoming zero-sum thinking is essential for personal and societal progress, there are criticisms and limitations to be aware of:
Realistic Scenarios:
In some situations, zero-sum dynamics may accurately reflect the constraints and limitations of a specific scenario. Not all situations can be transformed into win-win outcomes.
Cooperation Challenges:
Overcoming zero-sum thinking may require cooperation and trust-building among all parties involved, which can be challenging in contexts marked by distrust or animosity.
Complexity:
Real-world issues are often complex, with multiple stakeholders and competing interests. Finding mutually beneficial solutions can be more difficult than identifying zero-sum dynamics.
Cultural and Contextual Variations:
Cultural norms and contextual factors can influence the prevalence of zero-sum thinking. Strategies to overcome it may need to account for cultural and contextual variations.
Conclusion
Zero-sum thinking represents a cognitive bias that can hinder cooperation, innovation, and the pursuit of mutually beneficial outcomes. Recognizing and addressing this bias is crucial for individuals, organizations, and societies seeking to navigate complex challenges and create positive change. By adopting a growth mindset, seeking comprehensive information, practicing empathy, and embracing collaborative problem-solving, individuals and groups can move beyond win-lose mentalities to foster win-win solutions that promote collective well-being and progress. In a world filled with interconnected challenges, the shift away from zero-sum thinking is a vital step toward a more equitable and sustainable future.
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Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
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