US manufacturers shipped $86.1 billion of core capital goods in September 2026, seasonally adjusted, up 1.2% from August, according to the US Census Bureau’s full report on manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders, released November 3 (Census Bureau, September full report). Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a common gauge of business equipment spending.
For January through September, core capital goods shipments totaled $740.7 billion, up 8.8% from the same period of 2025, and new orders totaled $758.5 billion, up 10.9%, the report shows.
Business Pill · Capex and Depreciation
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on how capital spending is spread over an asset’s life. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss the Census data.
The key insight: US Census Bureau figures show core capital goods shipments at $86.1 billion in September 2026, seasonally adjusted, and up 8.8% for the year to date, with core capital goods new orders up 10.9%.
Seasonally adjusted core capital goods shipments rose 1.4% in July, 0.7% in August and 1.2% in September, to $86,125 million. New orders for the same category were $88,185 million in September, up 0.6% from August.
Not seasonally adjusted, core capital goods shipments were $90,967 million in September 2026, against $81,756 million in September 2025. New orders were $92,843 million, against $81,501 million a year earlier.
In the technology lines, shipments of computers and electronic products were $34,707 million in September, seasonally adjusted, up 1.4% from August. Year-to-date shipments of computers and related products were $25,577 million, up 18.9%, and year-to-date new orders for information technology were $263,587 million, up 14.1%.
Core capital goods (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) shipments and new orders, and computers and electronic products shipments, September 2025 vs September 2026, not seasonally adjusted, from the US Census Bureau’s September 2026 full M3 report. Percent changes are our arithmetic.
What Was Posted on X
CapEx in the US is skyrocketing:
The value of US nondefense capital goods shipments, excluding aircraft, jumped +11.6% YoY in September, reaching a record $86 billion.
This marks the fastest annual growth rate since July 2021.
Even more impressive, shipments have risen at a 3-month annualized rate of +16.5%, the strongest pace since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery.
Since October 2024, shipments have increased by +$12 billion, or +16.5%.
Much of this momentum is being fueled by the AI investment boom.
Orders for computers, servers, storage devices, and related equipment have surged +27% YoY, the largest annual increase since January 1997.
The AI infrastructure buildout is beyond massive.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) Nov 08 02:03
The Kobeissi Letter, a markets newsletter account, posted on 8 November that US nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft rose 11.6% year on year in September to a record $86 billion, with a three-month annualized pace of 16.5%, and attributed much of the momentum to AI investment. The piece checks these figures against the Census Bureau’s September report: Census shows $86.1 billion seasonally adjusted, and our arithmetic from Census values gives 11.3% year on year (not seasonally adjusted) and about 14.0% annualized.
Our Numbers
By our arithmetic from the not-seasonally-adjusted values, core capital goods shipments rose 11.3% from September 2025 to September 2026, and core capital goods new orders rose 13.9%. Computers and electronic products shipments rose 9.0%, or $3.16 billion.
Also by our arithmetic, that $3.16 billion rise in computers and electronic products shipments equals about 34% of the $9.21 billion rise in core capital goods shipments over the same months. The two series overlap but are not nested, so this is a size comparison, not a share. Compounding the three monthly changes Census reports for July to September gives about 14.0% at an annualized rate.
How This Compares With the Post
A post by The Kobeissi Letter put the September rise at 11.6% year on year, said shipments reached a record $86 billion, and said the three-month annualized pace was 16.5%. The Census tables we read give no seasonally adjusted year-on-year change or record comparison for this series; our not-seasonally-adjusted calculation gives 11.3%, and our compounding of Census’s monthly changes gives about 14.0% annualized. The post also said orders for computers and related equipment rose 27%; by our arithmetic from the not-seasonally-adjusted values, new orders for computers and related products rose 22.6%.
As we read the Census tables, orders are running ahead of shipments: year-to-date core capital goods new orders rose 10.9% against 8.8% for shipments.
As we read the technology lines, the fastest year-to-date growth is in computers and related products, whose shipments rose 18.9%, though that line is about $25.6 billion against $740.7 billion for all core capital goods.
As we read our own comparison, the $3.16 billion rise in computers and electronic products shipments equals about a third of the $9.21 billion rise in core capital goods shipments; the series overlap, so this is a size comparison, not a share.
US Census Bureau, September 2026 full report
“Shipments, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $8.8 billion or 1.3 percent to $668.5 billion”
Three Implications
FOR EQUIPMENT MAKERS Census figures show core capital goods new orders at $758.5 billion for the year to date, up 10.9%.
FOR TECHNOLOGY SUPPLIERS Year-to-date new orders for information technology were $263,587 million, up 14.1%, the report shows.
FOR READING THE DATA The Census values are not adjusted for price changes, and September figures are preliminary.
The analysis says: “This is not a continuation of the cloud capex cycle. This is a different cycle, with different physics.”
As we read it, the Census figures measure equipment shipped by US manufacturers, a broader base than hyperscaler capex. The analysis does not discuss the Census data.
What Is Not Established
The Census data counts the value of shipments and orders by US manufacturers, not adjusted for price changes. It does not say how much of the increase comes from AI data centers; computers and electronic products also include goods that are not capital equipment. September figures are preliminary and can be revised in the next release, due December 3, 2026.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
Census figures show core capital goods shipments at $86.1 billion in September, seasonally adjusted, and up 8.8% for the year to date, with new orders up 10.9%. By our arithmetic, shipments rose 11.3% from a year earlier on unadjusted figures, and the rise in computers and electronic products shipments equals about a third of the rise in core capital goods shipments.
A note on sourcing. Figures are from the US Census Bureau’s September 2026 full report on manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders, released November 3, 2026; September values are preliminary. Year-on-year changes, the 34% comparison and the annualized rate are our arithmetic. This piece is not investment advice.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
