Terafab, the chip venture of Tesla and SpaceX, has told semiconductor equipment suppliers it is targeting a production capacity of 1 million wafers per month from 2032 onward, with 700,000 wafers per month allocated to memory chips and 300,000 to logic chips, according to Nikkei as relayed by @jukan05 and Wccftech.
Samsung’s total DRAM output is currently estimated at 650,000 to 700,000 wafers per month, TrendForce reported in November 2025, citing ETNews. By our arithmetic, Terafab’s reported memory target equals 100% to 108% of that estimate.
Business Pill · The Memory Wall
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on memory as a constraint. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Terafab, Samsung or SK hynix.
The key insight: Terafab has told equipment suppliers it is targeting 700,000 memory wafers per month from 2032, according to Nikkei as relayed by @jukan05 and Wccftech. TrendForce reported Samsung’s current DRAM output at 650,000 to 700,000 wafers per month, so the target equals 100% to 108% of that estimate by our arithmetic.
SK hynix aims to raise monthly DRAM wafer capacity “from about 550,000 wafers today to roughly 1 million wafers by 2030”, and the current figure includes around 200,000 wafers per month from its Wuxi fab in China, TrendForce reported in June 2026, citing The Elec.
By our arithmetic, 700,000 wafers per month is about 1.27 times SK hynix’s current figure of about 550,000, and 56% to 58% of the two Korean makers’ combined current DRAM capacity of 1.2 million to 1.25 million wafers per month. It is 70% of the roughly 1 million wafers per month SK hynix aims to reach by 2030.
The comparison sets a 2032 target against capacity estimates from 2025 and 2026, so the Korean makers’ own expansion plans change the denominator over the same period.
Terafab’s reported 2032 memory target (700,000 wafers per month, Nikkei via @jukan05 and Wccftech) against reported DRAM wafer capacity: Samsung 650,000 to 700,000 (TrendForce, Nov 2025, citing ETNews), SK hynix about 550,000 today and roughly 1 million planned by 2030 (TrendForce, Jun 2026, citing The Elec). Percentages are our arithmetic; targets are not built capacity.
What Was Posted on X
NIKKEI: ELON MUSK’S TERAFAB HAS TOLD SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS IT IS TARGETING A PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF 1 MILLION WAFERS PER MONTH FROM 2032 ONWARD.
OF THAT TOTAL, 700,000 WAFERS PER MONTH WOULD BE ALLOCATED TO MEMORY CHIPS AND 300,000 TO LOGIC CHIPS.
@jukan05 posted at 22:46 UTC on 8 November, relaying Nikkei, that Terafab has told semiconductor equipment suppliers it is targeting 1 million wafers per month from 2032 onward, with 700,000 allocated to memory chips and 300,000 to logic chips. This piece compares that reported memory target with TrendForce’s reported DRAM capacity figures for Samsung and SK hynix; the percentages are our arithmetic.
I missed this earlier… I’d been wondering where Elon would source the memory IP. Apparently, he’s in talks with a Taiwanese company about a possible partnership. Could it be Nanya?
@jukan05 posted at 00:28 UTC on 9 November, quoting @dnystedt, who linked a Jiji Press report from 9 October that, according to people involved, a plan has emerged for a Taiwanese company to provide technical cooperation on Terafab’s memory manufacturing. @jukan05 asked whether it could be Nanya; that is the poster’s guess, and Jiji did not name a company.
What the Target Covers
Wccftech, citing Nikkei, described the 1 million wafers per month as a target “by 2032” and the memory share as “700,000 wafers per month for memory”. The free preview of Nikkei’s article that we read says Terafab has shown order plans to Japanese manufacturing equipment makers and is moving to start the fab; the wafer figures come from the two relays that attribute them to Nikkei.
Wccftech wrote that Terafab is a joint venture between SpaceX and Tesla with technological backing from Intel, and that an investment of $16.8 billion is earmarked for a semiconductor complex in Grimes County, Texas.
On where the memory know-how would come from, Jiji Press reported on 9 October, citing people involved, that a plan has emerged for a Taiwanese company to provide technical cooperation on Terafab’s memory manufacturing; Jiji also reported the roughly 70% memory and 30% logic split of about 1 million wafers per month. @jukan05 asked whether the company could be Nanya; that is the poster’s guess, and no company has been confirmed.
As we read the figures, the comparison is between a single company’s stated 2032 target and the current output of the largest DRAM maker, as estimated by TrendForce.
As we read the SK hynix report, the incumbents are also expanding: The Elec reported a plan to reach roughly 1 million DRAM wafers per month by 2030, which would put SK hynix above the Terafab target on its own.
As we read the relays, the 700,000 figure covers memory chips in general, so the split between DRAM and NAND is not given and the comparison with DRAM capacity is an upper bound on overlap.
SK hynix plan, as reported by TrendForce citing The Elec
“from about 550,000 wafers today to roughly 1 million wafers by 2030”
Three Implications
FOR MEMORY MAKERS TrendForce reported Samsung’s DRAM output at 650,000 to 700,000 wafers per month and SK hynix’s at about 550,000; Terafab’s reported target is 700,000.
FOR EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS Nikkei’s free preview says Terafab has shown order plans to Japanese manufacturing equipment makers.
FOR THE TIMELINE The Terafab figures are a target from 2032 onward, as relayed from Nikkei, while SK hynix’s reported plan runs to 2030.
The framework says: “The AI race has a new bottleneck, and it’s not what most observers expect.”
As we read it, a new entrant naming memory as 70% of its planned wafer output is one sign of where buyers see that bottleneck. The framework does not discuss Terafab, Samsung or SK hynix.
What Is Not Established
The relays describe the 700,000 wafers as allocated to “memory chips” and do not say how much would be DRAM and how much NAND; our comparison uses DRAM capacity because those are the figures TrendForce reported. The Samsung and SK hynix figures are reported estimates, not company disclosures, and neither includes a split by wafer size. We could not read Nikkei’s full article, which is paywalled, and we did not find a comparable monthly DRAM wafer figure for Micron in the sources we read. A 2032 target is not built capacity.
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Terafab is targeting 700,000 memory wafers per month from 2032, according to Nikkei as relayed by @jukan05 and Wccftech. That equals 100% to 108% of the 650,000 to 700,000 DRAM wafers per month TrendForce reported as Samsung’s current output, and 56% to 58% of Samsung and SK hynix combined, by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. The Terafab wafer figures are from Nikkei as relayed by an X post from @jukan05 and by Wccftech on 8 November 2026; we read Nikkei’s free preview only. The Samsung and SK hynix figures are TrendForce reports citing ETNews (November 2025) and The Elec (June 2026), read on 9 November 2026. We did not contact Terafab, Tesla, SpaceX, Samsung or SK hynix. Percentages and multiples are our arithmetic.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
