The 12 AI stocks that closed a combined $1,447.4 billion lower on Thursday traded about $774.0 billion above Thursday’s close about 15 minutes into Friday’s regular session, as of 9:45-9:46 a.m. ET (14:45-14:46 UTC), by our arithmetic from Nasdaq intraday prices. That is about 53.5% of Thursday’s loss, up from the $661.8 billion, or 45.7%, in our premarket count at 6:46 a.m. ET. These are intraday prices, not closes.
AMD traded at $455.39, up 12.61% from its official Thursday close of $404.40, on Nasdaq’s quote data. Nvidia traded at $193.77, up 6.70% from $181.60. The S&P 500 stood at 7,422.34 at 9:46 a.m. ET, up 0.93% from Thursday’s 7,353.73 close, on Yahoo Finance chart data.
Business Pill · Financial Conditions
A short explainer on financial conditions: how the price of credit moves with markets. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Friday’s trading.
The key insight: By our arithmetic from Nasdaq’s intraday prices about 15 minutes into Friday’s session, the 12 AI stocks that lost about $1,447.4 billion on Thursday were about $774.0 billion above Thursday’s close: 53.5% of the loss, $112.2 billion more than at 6:46 a.m. ET, on prices that are not closes.
The open added about $112.2 billion to the premarket figure, by our arithmetic, but not evenly. Nvidia had regained about 65.7% of its $446.6 billion Thursday loss, up from about 49.1% premarket. AMD went from about 39.8% to 60.4%, and Intel from about 55.6% to 70.6%.
Four of the 12 had less of their loss back than they did premarket: Oracle went from about 58.7% to 46.4%, Arm from 49.1% to 38.2%, Broadcom from 42.3% to 39.5% and Marvell from 50.0% to 47.5%, by our arithmetic. Tesla had the smallest share back, about 25.9%, after about 21.5% premarket.
Micron traded at $720.45, up 9.76%, and SanDisk at $907.52, up 12.54%. TSMC’s ADR traded at $380.00, up 7.62%, with about 63.1% of its Thursday loss back.
Share of each stock’s 5 November market-value loss regained: premarket at 6:46 a.m. ET versus about 9:45 a.m. ET on 6 November. Source: Nasdaq quotes and official closes; share counts from each company’s latest SEC filing, TSMC as ADRs. Our arithmetic; premarket and intraday prices are not closes.
Where the S&P 500 Sits Against Morgan Stanley’s Range
At 7,422.34, the S&P 500 was 1.68% above 7,300 and 4.54% above 7,100, the two ends of the “downside tactical target of 7100-7300” in a Morgan Stanley note dated 2 November, covered in our piece on that note. Reaching the bank’s 8,000 year-end base case would take a 7.78% rise from that level, by our arithmetic.
The open came an hour after the Labor Department’s October jobs report, released at 8:30 a.m. ET, which showed payrolls up 165,000 and unemployment at 4.1%. The report and the open fell on the same morning; these figures do not show that one caused the other.
The Counterpoint
Before the open, Walter Bloomberg, the markets news account on X, posted at 12:29 UTC that UBS strategist Gerry Fowler “warns more selling could follow”, and that “US trend-following quant funds remain heavily exposed to equities and may still need to reduce positions”. The post said Fowler sees the futures rebound as “tentative buying in thin futures markets, not necessarily a genuine recovery”. We have not read the UBS note itself.
As we read the basket, the open changed the order: Nvidia, AMD and Intel had more of their Thursday loss back than premarket, while Oracle, Arm, Broadcom and Marvell had less, by our arithmetic.
As we read the index, the S&P 500 at 7,422.34 sat 1.68% above the top of Morgan Stanley’s 7,100-7,300 range and 7.78% below its 8,000 year-end base case, by our arithmetic.
As we read the timing, these are prices from the first 15 minutes of the regular session; the 4 p.m. ET close sets the day’s official prices.
Walter Bloomberg on X, 6 November 2026, on UBS strategist Gerry Fowler
“Fowler says the rebound reflects tentative buying in thin futures markets, not necessarily a genuine recovery.”
Three Implications
FOR THE 12-STOCK BASKET About $774.0 billion of Thursday’s $1,447.4 billion loss was back about 15 minutes into the session, up from $661.8 billion premarket, by our arithmetic.
FOR AMD It traded at $455.39, up 12.61% from its $404.40 official close, Nasdaq data show.
FOR THE S&P 500 It stood at 7,422.34 at 9:46 a.m. ET, up 0.93% from the 7,353.73 Thursday close, on Yahoo Finance chart data.
The framework argues: “It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing”.
As we read it, the stocks in our basket are the listed end of that financing, and their prices moved by hundreds of billions of dollars in two sessions. The framework does not discuss Friday’s trading.
What Is Not Established
These are intraday prices from the first 15 minutes of trading, as of 9:45-9:46 a.m. ET, and are not closes; they can change before the 4 p.m. ET close. The value changes use the same share counts as our Thursday piece, from each company’s latest SEC filing, with TSMC converted to ADRs. The S&P 500 level is from Yahoo Finance chart data, not an official close. The UBS view is as posted by Walter Bloomberg on X.
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About 15 minutes into Friday’s session, the 12 AI stocks in our basket were about $774.0 billion above Thursday’s close, or 53.5% of the $1,447.4 billion they lost, by our arithmetic, $112.2 billion more than at 6:46 a.m. ET. AMD was up 12.61% and Nvidia 6.70%, while Oracle, Arm, Broadcom and Marvell had less of their loss back than premarket.
A note on sourcing. Intraday prices are from Nasdaq’s quote data as of about 9:45-9:46 a.m. ET (14:45-14:46 UTC) on 6 November 2026; closes are Nasdaq’s official closing prices; the S&P 500 level is from Yahoo Finance chart data at 9:46 a.m. ET. Market-value changes are our arithmetic, using the share counts in each company’s latest SEC filing (TSMC converted to ADRs), the same basis as our 5 November close piece.
Intraday prices are not closes. The UBS view is as posted by Walter Bloomberg on X; we have not read the UBS note.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
