Deutsche Bank’s 2026 revenue estimate for SpaceX, $51.6 billion, implies fourth-quarter revenue of about $24.5 billion once the $27.1 billion SpaceX reported for the first nine months is taken out, by our arithmetic. That is about 68% above the $14.6 billion SpaceX reported for the third quarter.
The bank’s revised chart, posted on X on 11 November, gives annual figures only, and our piece on the forecast covers its 2028 numbers. The implied quarter sits within about $0.25 billion of the figure Elon Musk’s “something like 70%” growth estimate points to, by our arithmetic.
Business Pill · Run-Rate Revenue
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on run-rate revenue, the measure behind SpaceX’s $100 billion December ARR goal. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss SpaceX or Deutsche Bank.
The key insight: Deutsche Bank’s 2026 SpaceX revenue estimate of $51,606 million, less the $27,083 million SpaceX reported for the first nine months, leaves about $24.5 billion for the fourth quarter, 68% above the third quarter, by our arithmetic. Musk’s own estimate was about 70%.
The Deutsche Bank chart, titled “Revised Revenue and EBITDA ($m)”, puts 2026 revenue at $51,606 million. SpaceX’s 10-Q for the quarter to 30 September reports nine-month revenue of $27,083 million, of which $14,575 million came in the third quarter.
Taking the reported nine months from the bank’s full-year figure leaves $24,523 million for October to December, by our arithmetic. That is 1.68 times third-quarter revenue. The second quarter was $7,814 million, so the model has revenue roughly tripling in two quarters, by our arithmetic.
SpaceX quarterly revenue as reported in its filings, and the fourth quarter of 2026 implied by Deutsche Bank’s 2026 estimate as posted on X; the implied quarter is our arithmetic ($51,606M minus $27,083M).
Against Musk and the CFO
On 6 November Musk said fourth-quarter revenue would probably rise “something like 70%” from the third quarter, as covered in our piece on his forecast, which put that at about $24.8 billion. The Deutsche Bank figure implies about 68%.
On the 20 October call, chief financial officer Bret Johnsen said SpaceX remained on track for “$100 billion in ARR by the end of this year, defined as annualized revenue based on the month of December”. That is about $8.33 billion of December revenue; the implied quarter averages about $8.2 billion a month, or $98.1 billion annualised, by our arithmetic.
The EBITDA Side of the Quarter
The chart puts 2026 EBITDA at $27,457 million. SpaceX’s third-quarter release reports nine-month Adjusted EBITDA of $13,474 million, so the model implies about $14.0 billion for the fourth quarter, 59% above the third quarter’s $8,809 million, by our arithmetic.
That is an implied fourth-quarter margin of about 57.0%, against 60.4% in the third quarter and 45.3% in the second, by our arithmetic. Johnsen said he expected “total company gross margins in Q4 to be more consistent with the second quarter”, a different measure from EBITDA.
The Structural Read
As we read the numbers, the bank’s 2026 figure sits close to management’s own markers: the implied quarter is within about $0.25 billion of Musk’s 70% and annualises to about $98.1 billion, against the $100 billion December ARR goal.
As we read the EBITDA side, the implied fourth-quarter margin of about 57.0% sits between the third quarter’s 60.4% and the second quarter’s 45.3%, by our arithmetic; the CFO’s comment was about gross margin, a different measure.
“We remain on track to deliver our previously stated goal of $100 billion in ARR by the end of this year, defined as annualized revenue based on the month of December.”
Three Implications
FOR THE QUARTER The residual is about $24.5 billion of revenue and $14.0 billion of EBITDA, by our arithmetic on the bank’s chart and SpaceX’s filings.
FOR THE ARR GOAL The implied quarter averages about $8.2 billion a month, against about $8.33 billion of December revenue in a $100 billion ARR, by our arithmetic.
FOR MARGINS The implied fourth-quarter EBITDA margin is about 57.0%, against 60.4% in the third quarter, by our arithmetic; the chart does not define EBITDA.
The framework describes the AI build-out as having “a dual character that is simultaneously a bubble and a supercycle”.
As we read it, a bank residual that lands within $0.25 billion of the chief executive’s own estimate is a point where forecasts meet reported revenue; the framework predates the note and does not discuss SpaceX.
What Is Not Established
Deutsche Bank’s chart gives no quarterly figures, so the fourth quarter here is a residual of our arithmetic, not a bank estimate. The chart does not define EBITDA; SpaceX reports Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, and the comparison assumes the two match. Musk’s 70% comes from our machine transcript of a broadcast, not an official transcript.
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Deutsche Bank’s 2026 SpaceX figure implies fourth-quarter revenue of about $24.5 billion, 68% above the third quarter, and about $14.0 billion of EBITDA, by our arithmetic on the bank’s chart and SpaceX’s 10-Q. That is close to Musk’s 70% and annualises to about $98.1 billion, against the $100 billion December ARR goal.
A note on sourcing. The annual estimates are Deutsche Bank Research’s, from its “Revised Revenue and EBITDA” chart as posted on X on 11 November 2026; we did not read the full note. Reported figures come from SpaceX’s 10-Q and its third-quarter results release filed with the SEC; quotes from the 20 October call come from The Motley Fool’s transcript. Musk’s 6 November remark is from our own earlier reporting. The implied fourth quarter, growth rates and margins are our arithmetic. Deutsche Bank and SpaceX were not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
