Deutsche Bank models SpaceX revenue rising from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $315.3 billion in 2028, and EBITDA from $6.6 billion to $237.1 billion, according to a chart from the bank’s research posted on X on 11 November. By our arithmetic that is about 17 times 2025 revenue, a compound growth rate of about 157% a year.
Analyst Edison Yu raised his 2028 revenue forecast by $18.7 billion and his EBITDA forecast by $18 billion on 10 November, and kept a Buy rating and a $250 price target, 24/7 Wall St. reported. His reason, per the report: limits on data centres slow construction, mainly in 2028, and keep computing capacity scarce.
Business Pill · Compound Annual Growth Rate
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on compound annual growth rate, the measure behind the 157% figure above. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss SpaceX or Deutsche Bank.
The key insight: Deutsche Bank models SpaceX revenue at $315.3 billion in 2028, up from $18.7 billion in 2025, and EBITDA at $237.1 billion, up from $6.6 billion. By our arithmetic, revenue grows about 17 times, about 157% a year, and the EBITDA margin rises from 35% to 75%.
The chart, titled “Revised Revenue and EBITDA ($m)”, gives revenue of $51.6 billion in 2026, $193.2 billion in 2027 and $315.3 billion in 2028. EBITDA goes from $27.5 billion in 2026 to $136.8 billion in 2027 and $237.1 billion in 2028.
The 2025 starting point, $18,674 million, matches the revenue SpaceX reported for that year; our SpaceX revenue breakdown shows Connectivity, which is Starlink, was $11,387 million of it. The chart gives no split of the forecasts by segment.
SpaceX revenue and EBITDA: 2025 as reported, 2026-2028 Deutsche Bank estimates, from the bank’s ‘Revised Revenue and EBITDA’ chart as posted on X. EBITDA margins are our arithmetic.
The Margin Path in the Forecast
By our arithmetic, the EBITDA margin in the model rises from 35% in 2025 to 53% in 2026, 71% in 2027 and 75% in 2028. Revenue grows 176% in 2026, 274% in 2027 and 63% in 2028.
By the same arithmetic, the raise implies a prior 2028 forecast of about $296.6 billion of revenue and $219.1 billion of EBITDA. SpaceX reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $14.6 billion, as covered in our piece on the quarter.
Against the Market Value
24/7 Wall St. put SpaceX’s market value at about $1.9 trillion at the 10 November close of $143.09, and its revenue over the past twelve months at $32 billion. By our arithmetic, that market value is about 59 times trailing revenue, 6.0 times Deutsche Bank’s 2028 revenue and 8.0 times its 2028 EBITDA.
As we read the chart, most of the jump sits in 2027, when modelled revenue rises from $51.6 billion to $193.2 billion; the bank gives no segment split, so which business carries it is not shown.
As we read the note as reported, the lever is the price of scarce compute: 24/7 Wall St. reports that Edison Yu expects limits on data centres to slow construction, mainly in 2028, and keep capacity scarce and rental prices higher for longer.
Elon Musk, on X, 8 November 2026, as reported by 24/7 Wall St.
“If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop.”
Three Implications
FOR VALUATION At the market value of about $1.9 trillion reported by 24/7 Wall St., SpaceX trades at about 6.0 times Deutsche Bank’s 2028 revenue and about 59 times trailing revenue, by our arithmetic.
FOR MARGINS The modelled EBITDA margin rises from 35% in 2025 to 75% in 2028, by our arithmetic on the bank’s chart.
FOR THE REVISION The raise implies a prior 2028 forecast of about $296.6 billion of revenue and $219.1 billion of EBITDA, by our arithmetic.
The analysis writes that the May 2026 Map of AI argued that “the seven-layer AI stack is now governed from the bottom”, by energy, silicon and compute capacity.
As we read it, Deutsche Bank’s raise is a bet on that bottom layer: the reported reason is that compute stays scarce. The analysis predates the note and does not discuss SpaceX’s forecasts.
What Is Not Established
The full Deutsche Bank note is not public; we read the chart and 24/7 Wall St.’s report of it. 24/7 Wall St. notes that Deutsche Bank left contract repricing out of its numbers. Musk wrote on 8 November: “If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop.”
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Deutsche Bank models SpaceX revenue at $315.3 billion in 2028, about 17 times 2025 and roughly 157% compound growth a year by our arithmetic, with the EBITDA margin rising from 35% to 75%. At about $1.9 trillion, the market value is about 6.0 times that 2028 revenue.
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A note on sourcing. The forecasts are Deutsche Bank Research’s, from its “Revised Revenue and EBITDA” chart as posted on X on 11 November 2026; the analyst, rating, target and rationale are as reported by 24/7 Wall St. on 10 November. We did not read the full note. The 2025 figure is checked against SpaceX’s reported revenue. Growth rates, margins and multiples are our arithmetic. Deutsche Bank and SpaceX were not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
