At Friday’s close, Nvidia’s market value was 9.1 times its own revenue guide for the quarter it reports on 17 November, annualized, by our arithmetic. On the last four reported quarters, the same market value is 13.0 times sales.
Nasdaq puts the 13 November close at $162.85 and the market value at $3,924,685,000,000. Nvidia guides third-quarter revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, which is $432.0 billion a year if multiplied by four.
Business Pill · GPUs explained
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on GPUs. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss Nvidia’s valuation or this report.
The key insight: As we read the numbers, Nvidia’s market value is priced off a revenue base that is already 42.6% larger in run-rate terms than its last four reported quarters, which is why the multiple falls from 13.0 times to 9.1 times when its own guide replaces filed results.
The trailing figure uses filed results. SEC data put Nvidia’s revenue for the four quarters to 26 July 2026 at $302.97 billion, so $3,924.7 billion of market value is 12.95 times that, by our arithmetic.
The forward figure uses Nvidia’s outlook from its 26 August CFO commentary: “Revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%”. Four times the midpoint is $432.0 billion, 42.6% above the trailing total. Market value over that run rate is 9.08 times, by our arithmetic.
Across the guide range, the multiple runs from 9.27 times at the low end ($105.84 billion a quarter) to 8.91 times at the high end ($110.16 billion), by our arithmetic. The trailing multiple is 1.43 times the run-rate multiple.
Market value at the 13 November close divided by revenue: Nvidia on its own third-quarter guide annualized and on trailing sales, Broadcom and AMD on trailing sales; multiples are our arithmetic.
Broadcom and AMD on the Same Basis
On trailing sales, Broadcom’s $1,656.5 billion market value is 18.59 times its $89.10 billion of revenue over four quarters, and AMD’s $875.9 billion is 19.28 times $45.44 billion, by our arithmetic from the same Nasdaq and SEC data.
Nvidia’s 13.0 times is 30% below Broadcom’s multiple and 33% below AMD’s. This piece does not annualize the two peers’ own guides, so the 9.1 times figure has no like-for-like peer comparison here. Our piece on earnings multiples compares the three on next-year earnings, and our piece on Anthropic’s IPO price sets Nvidia’s sales multiple against Anthropic’s.
What 17 November Changes
The report replaces both numbers. A third-quarter result becomes the newest quarter in the trailing total, and a fourth-quarter outlook becomes the new run rate. Nvidia says written commentary from chief financial officer Colette Kress is posted “at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT”, about 21:20 UTC, ahead of a 2 p.m. Pacific call.
Our count of the last eight quarters found Nvidia’s reported revenue came in above the midpoint of its own revenue guide each time, by 5% on average. As a reading of history only, a result 5% above the midpoint, $113.4 billion, would put Friday’s market value at 8.65 times the annualized figure, by our arithmetic. Our earnings preview sets out the guide, and our Nvidia hub tracks the stock, the report and the board.
The Structural Read
As we read the peer gap, Broadcom and AMD trade at 18.6 times and 19.3 times trailing sales by our arithmetic, so on filed results alone Nvidia’s market value would be about $5.6 trillion at Broadcom’s multiple.
As we read the calendar, the 17 November report replaces the guide with a reported quarter, and the 26 August outlook gives revenue for the third quarter only, so the run-rate multiple resets with each report.
NVIDIA CFO Commentary, second quarter fiscal 2027, 26 August 2026
“Revenue is expected to be $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.”
Three Implications
FOR INVESTORS Nasdaq puts the 13 November close at $162.85 and market value at $3,924,685,000,000, 13.0 times trailing sales by our arithmetic.
FOR CHIP PEERS Broadcom is 18.59 times and AMD 19.28 times their trailing revenue on the same Nasdaq and SEC data, by our arithmetic.
FOR 17 NOVEMBER Nvidia says written commentary from Colette Kress is posted at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT, ahead of a 2 p.m. PT call.
The framework says: “Three competitive categories within one layer: generalist substrate (NVIDIA), hyperscaler custom (TPU, Trainium, MTIA), merchant custom challengers (Cerebras, Groq, SambaNova).”
As we read it, Broadcom and AMD sit in the custom and challenger categories, and on trailing sales both carry higher multiples than the generalist substrate; the framework does not discuss valuation multiples.
What Is Not Established
An annualized quarterly guide is a run rate, not a forecast of the next twelve months; Nvidia gives no outlook beyond the current quarter. The market value is Nasdaq’s, which multiplies the last sale by the share count from the latest filing. This piece does not use an analyst consensus.
Markets were closed on 14 and 15 November, so the figures use the 13 November close. The figures come from Nasdaq, SEC filings and Nvidia’s releases. Nvidia was not contacted for this piece.
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At the 13 November close of $162.85, Nvidia’s $3,924.7 billion market value was 9.1 times its $108.0 billion third-quarter guide annualized and 13.0 times trailing sales, against 18.6 times for Broadcom and 19.3 times for AMD, by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. Prices and market values come from Nasdaq quote data for the 13 November 2026 close, read on 14 November; revenue comes from NVIDIA, Broadcom and AMD filings on SEC EDGAR; the guide comes from NVIDIA’s CFO commentary of 26 August 2026 and the report time from its 28 October call notice. Multiples, run rates and percentages are our arithmetic. NVIDIA was not contacted for this piece.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
