Nvidia’s next-12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is about 11.7 times, TradingKey reported on Wednesday, citing FactSet data, “marking its lowest level since October 2011 and falling below 12 times for the first time since 2012”.
We rebuilt the multiple from public data. Nvidia’s official close of $168.89 on 10 November, divided by the analyst consensus of $15.75 of earnings per share for the fiscal year ending January 2028 on Nasdaq’s forecast page, is 10.7 times, by our arithmetic. On the same basis Broadcom trades at 19.0 times and AMD at 32.1 times.
Business Pill · GPUs
An evergreen Business Engineer explainer on GPUs and AI hardware. It teaches the general idea only and does not discuss share prices or valuations.
The key insight: As we read the data, the headline multiple depends on which year of earnings it is set against: on Nasdaq’s consensus, Nvidia trades at 18.2 times this fiscal year and 10.7 times next, by our arithmetic, with FactSet’s next-12-month 11.7 times, as TradingKey reports it, in between.
Live update (11 Nov, 10:19 a.m. ET): Nvidia last traded at $172.68 on Nasdaq, up 2.24% on the day. On the same consensus of $15.75 for the fiscal year ending January 2028, that is 11.0 times next year’s earnings and 18.6 times this year’s $9.30, by our arithmetic. Broadcom, up 5.55% at $350.41, is at 20.1 times its next-year consensus of $17.46, and AMD, up 4.37% at $537.74, at 33.5 times its $16.04, by our arithmetic. What happened next:what Nvidia would be worth at Broadcom’s 19x; the $3.94-a-quarter path 17 November tests; forward P/E explained.
TradingKey writes that the S&P 500’s forward P/E “remains near 18 times”, and that Nvidia’s “stock price has recently pulled back sharply, but analysts have not yet lowered their profit forecasts for the next 12 months in tandem”.
It sets out both readings: that the price has already absorbed slower AI spending, or that “current earnings forecasts have not yet fully reflected industry shifts”. Our earlier pieces cover Nvidia erasing its 2026 gains and Baird’s downgrade.
Price divided by analyst consensus earnings per share for the current and next fiscal year, using official closes on 10 November 2026 and Nasdaq consensus data read on 11 November. The multiples are our arithmetic; the fiscal years end in different months.
The Multiple, Rebuilt
Nasdaq’s analyst forecast data puts Nvidia’s consensus at $9.30 a share for the fiscal year ending January 2027, from 17 estimates, and $15.75 for the year ending January 2028, from 15. On the $168.89 close, that is 18.2 times this year and 10.7 times next, by our arithmetic.
FactSet’s next-12-month figure of about 11.7 times sits between the two, as a blend of this year and next would. Consensus earnings rise 69% from one fiscal year to the next, by our arithmetic, so the multiple depends heavily on which year it is set against. On the pre-market price of $174.07 at 9:07 a.m. ET on 11 November, the next-year multiple is 11.1 times.
Broadcom and AMD on the Same Basis
Broadcom closed at $331.98 on 10 November. Against consensus of $10.37 for the fiscal year ending October 2026 and $17.46 for the year ending October 2027, it trades at 32.0 times and 19.0 times, by our arithmetic.
AMD closed at $515.21. Against consensus of $6.93 for 2026 and $16.04 for 2027, it trades at 74.3 times and 32.1 times. On next-year earnings, Broadcom’s multiple is 1.8 times Nvidia’s and AMD’s 3.0 times, by our arithmetic.
The Structural Read
As we read the comparison, Nvidia’s multiple sits below Broadcom’s and AMD’s on both years, so on these figures the market prices each dollar of Nvidia’s forecast earnings below its two chip peers’.
As we read TradingKey, the multiple is only as solid as the earnings forecast under it: it says analysts have not yet cut their next-12-month forecasts in step with the share price.
TradingKey, 11 November 2026
“However, whether this valuation proves truly attractive still hinges on the reliability of Wall Street’s earnings forecasts and whether AI customers can continue to secure ample financing”
Three Implications
FOR NVIDIA Consensus earnings per share rise 69% from the fiscal year ending January 2027 to the next, by our arithmetic.
FOR BROADCOM 19.0 times next fiscal year’s consensus, 1.8 times Nvidia’s multiple, by our arithmetic.
FOR AMD 32.1 times next year’s consensus, 3.0 times Nvidia’s multiple, by our arithmetic.
The framework records: “the capex race is no longer a corporate spending cycle. It is a sovereign-scale financing problem dressed in tech-company clothing”.
As we read it, TradingKey’s caveat that the multiple hinges on whether AI customers can keep securing financing ties Nvidia’s earnings forecast to that financing problem. The framework predates the current share moves and does not discuss them.
What Is Not Established
We did not read FactSet’s data; the 11.7 times and the 2011 comparison are TradingKey’s account of it. Our multiples use fiscal-year consensus from Nasdaq’s page, so they are not the same measure as a next-12-month ratio, and the three companies’ fiscal years end in different months. Consensus figures change as analysts revise them.
This Week In The AI Supercycle
The Great Convergence of Capital, Power, and Geopolitics
This week’s issue: for two years the AI build-out was priced as a supply story, and last week as a credit story. This week it was priced as a permission story, and the answer arrived as a cost, not a ban.
TradingKey, citing FactSet, puts Nvidia’s next-12-month forward P/E at about 11.7 times, its lowest since October 2011. Rebuilt from Nasdaq’s close and consensus data, Nvidia trades at 10.7 times next fiscal year’s earnings, against 19.0 times for Broadcom and 32.1 times for AMD, by our arithmetic.
A note on sourcing. The 11.7 times figure and the October 2011 comparison are TradingKey’s, citing FactSet data, published on 11 November 2026 and read in full; we did not read FactSet’s data. Official closes for 10 November and consensus earnings-per-share forecasts are from Nasdaq.com, read at about 14:07 UTC on 11 November; the pre-market price is Nasdaq’s last sale at 9:07 a.m. ET. Every multiple is our arithmetic. This piece covers market valuation only and is not investment advice. Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD were not contacted.
Gennaro Cuofano is a CRO and tech executive who has worked in AI since late 2015, starting with bringing NLP, natural-language generation, voice and chatbot products to the marketing industry. His background is in law and finance: he holds a Master's degree in Law and an International MBA with an emphasis on corporate finance (LUISS Business School and the University of San Diego, 2012), and worked as a financial analyst at a real-estate investment firm in San Diego and as an assistant controller. His work focuses on business model strategy, business engineering and, more broadly, structural analysis: how companies make money, read from their own filings. He created FourWeekMBA and leads research there and at The Business Engineer, his newsletter on AI and business strategy, with over 95,000 subscribers and more than 1,000 published analyses. His writing has also appeared on Entrepreneur (for example, How to Digitize a Family Business in Europe) and HackerNoon. Find him on LinkedIn and Substack. See how we source.
